Help estimating wedding guests....

[godaime]

I know the rule of thumb is to expect that 20% of the guest list will not come... however I am in the process of finding a reception site and my guest is 100. Should I tell the reception hall 100 or 80? The downpayment to book the reception hall is based on the amount of guests. If the guests go over what I estimate...the room might be too small....if the guests are less than what I estimate...the hotel will make me pay more because they have a minimum $$ requirement per room. I had no clue this is sooo hard. Also my fiance''s family and friends are from another country. He wants to invite all these people but I DOUBT they will fly all the way here, but if they do there might be too many guests. A lot of my guests are scattered around the US so I don''t know if they are willing to travel to come to my wedding.... I have no clue how I should estimate the amount of guests that will be there. Help

 

[zoebartlett]

Date: 5/23/2007 6:37:24 PM
Author:godaime
I know the rule of thumb is to expect that 20% of the guest list will not come... however I am in the process of finding a reception site and my guest is 100. Should I tell the reception hall 100 or 80? The downpayment to book the reception hall is based on the amount of guests. If the guests go over what I estimate...the room might be too small....if the guests are less than what I estimate...the hotel will make me pay more because they have a minimum $$ requirement per room. I had no clue this is sooo hard. Also my fiance''s family and friends are from another country. He wants to invite all these people but I DOUBT they will fly all the way here, but if they do there might be too many guests. A lot of my guests are scattered around the US so I don''t know if they are willing to travel to come to my wedding.... I have no clue how I should estimate the amount of guests that will be there. Help

I''m in the same boat as you so I''m not sure I''ll be much help, but I''ll tell you what I''ve told wedding coordinators at potential venues. When asked how many guests I''m planning for, I''ve been giving a range (80-110 people). I don''t think it will go past that, and I''m hoping to keep it smaller. I''ve only visited places once. I''m planning another trip in a couple weeks to revisit some of the venues and hopefully make my decision soon after that. I''m not sure how close you are to booking though. I''m curious to hear what others say. Sorry I couldn''t be of more help.

 

[cara]

First, make a spreadsheet. List everyone you might want to invite. You can do A/B lists if you want, ie. HAVE to invite As, would like to invite Bs. Then assign each person a probability. The ones I found useful were: 1 = absolutely coming unless hit by bus; 0.8 = probably; 0.5 = maybe; 0.2 = unlikely. You might even have a few 0s = impossible for them to come. Add up the numbers. This is your estimated attendance. If you have a lot of overseas invites going out, your overall acceptance rate might be closer to 60% and not 80%, especially if the financial burden of attending would be high.

Then think about what the consequences are of being wrong. What if all those overseas people you gave a 0.5 or 0.2 to decide to come. Could your facility legally fit them in? If not, you better have some significant margin of safety or find a different venue. If you could legally and practically fit them in, and it would just be tight and more expensive than planned, I think those unlikely consequences are acceptable - ie. you would not be completely screwed if they came.

And what if people don''t come? How bad are the financial consequences of having 60 people show up instead of 80? If its only $2 per person more for catering, I think that''s fine. If you have to pay for 80 people regardless of how many show up, I would try to negotiate a different contract. Maybe you plan on a midlevel menu and bar service for 80, but if you have less than 80 the contract requires you UPGRADE to a more expensive meal and topshelf liquor, but you only pay for the people you have. This way you at least get something for paying more.

 

[Gypsy]

I would make sure to book a place that could accomdate your entire guest list if needed. I''d then base your deposit amount on about 75% of your list. I would make sure to read my contract carefully to see what the penalties are for having MORE guests, if any (haven''t run accross any where who penalizes you for spending more but you never know). Then I''d check to see what happens if I have LESS-- sometimes you still have to meet $ amount by adding something like upgraded entrees or something. KEEP IN MIND THE CONTRACTS ARE NEGOTIABLE AND THAT YOU ARE THE CUSTOMER! Also, make sure to note when they need the final headcount by. Ask if vendor meals count toward your minimum as well as kids meals (if either of those are an issue).

 

[So_happy]

It may be common, but I personally did not run into a reception venue that had these really specific downpayment structures. Are you in love with this place? If so, then perhaps you could do one of the things mentioned above. It''s all you could do, really. If you''re not in love, might you find another? It just seems like such a numbers game and it''s a cause for stress so early

I know almost all places we considered had minimums and that was easy enough to deal with but it seems your place wants you to know how many guests might show up and that''s just NOT anywhere near an exact science.