Rappaport finally wakes up

[Rockdiamond]

After literally years of telling us how the prices of natural diamonds have been stable, finally Rappaport has changed the list to better reflect the current market. The decreases in the list are broad based. I’ve never seen such a large broad based drop in the list.
It’s really not going to affect the real prices people are paying because the market has already corrected to a great degree.
Rap says 50% of engagement rings in 2024 are man made diamonds. But he expects that to plummet in 2025. He’s clueless if you ask me

 

[Karl_K]

clueless or its wishful thinking

 

[sunandsky]

I haven't been around here much but stopped in to see if anyone was talking about the price of mined diamonds dropping. I mainly watch auctions, instagram and some specific dealers and do feel these parts of the retail market are starting to weaken (though not yet all dealers). I'm curious as to what others are noticing, as the medium and long term impacts of lab diamonds haven't been seen yet and I think there's huge variability in what those impacts could be.

 

[Karl_K]

I think the lack of demand in the US is caused by multiple factors.
That lab diamonds took off is not a cause but a symptom.

It starts with inflation in the US.
The increased cost of housing, cars, and food is frankly out of control.
A generation with insane student loan debt.
The real unemployment rate is much higher than the fake government numbers would make you think.
Taxes are up, the government is stealing an ever increasing amount of money from everyone. Lucky enough to get that raise you need to live and the government takes a bigger chunk of it.
Wages for those that have jobs have not grown enough to cover the above.
----------------------
There is an alternative that costs a fraction of the price and is largely exactly the same other than origin.
Instead of going for mined diamonds that are smaller than their family and friends have they are buying larger LGD stones.
The cat is out of the bag on them and no amount of wishful thinking is going to change that.

This is just my thoughts on it, some might agree or disagree, I am just speaking for me.

 

[nala]

How much have lab grown diamonds plummeted @Rockdiamond?
Since 2020? @Karl_K?

 

[Karl_K]

How much have lab grown diamonds plummeted @Rockdiamond?
Since 2020? @Karl_K?

LGD is really a tech play(like lcd tvs) which means it moves extremely fast at first.
Prices start out very high on inferior products(off color compared to mined and lower charities.)
Early adopters pay what later are insane prices.
Then a lot of players get into it when the tech advances forcing prices down and quality up(we are in that stage now)
A lot of them will fail or be bought out to consolidate the market.(starting to happen)
A few big players take over the market and prices creep back up but are fairly stable and the tech changes slowly..
Some will move onto producing diamonds for other uses, cell phone camera lenses and other lenses are a huge billion dollar market that actually dwarfs jewelry sales potential.
Diamond tooling is another area that will be/is large but smaller than the jewelry market.
The biggest market of all is substrates for electronic chips but this a different technology than tools, lenses and jewelry so it will grow separately and has already split off.

All that said, I dont have the numbers for you.

 

[tyty333]

I haven't been around here much but stopped in to see if anyone was talking about the price of mined diamonds dropping. I mainly watch auctions, instagram and some specific dealers and do feel these parts of the retail market are starting to weaken (though not yet all dealers). I'm curious as to what others are noticing, as the medium and long term impacts of lab diamonds haven't been seen yet and I think there's huge variability in what those impacts could be.

I have noticed the drop in mined diamonds but it seems mostly to be at the 1-1.5 carat range. 2 carats (which I'm interested in) dont
appear to have dropped as much as 1 carat stones.

I'm seriously considering keeping my current stone (1.66) and doing a 3-stone instead of upgrading to a 2 carat. I would get off
cheaper by adding 1.4 carat (two .70ish stones) vs adding about .33 points to my current stone.

Currently, I'm see 1 carat H (SI) stones in the $3.5k range at JA. G colored 1 carats at sub $4k.
G 1 carats used to be around $7k. Thats a big drop! (these are not Super Ideals obviously)

 

[MissGotRocks]

I have noticed the drop in mined diamonds but it seems mostly to be at the 1-1.5 carat range. 2 carats (which I'm interested in) dont
appear to have dropped as much 1 carat stones.

I'm seriously considering keeping my current stone (1.66) and doing a 3-stone instead of upgrading to a 2 carat. I would get off
cheaper by adding 1.4 carat (two .70ish stones) vs adding about .33 points to my current stone.

Currently, I'm see 1 carat H (SI) stones in the $3.5k range at JA. G colored 1 carats at sub $4k.
G 1 carats used to be around $7k.

Still not seeing much of a price drop in the super ideal stones. Granted, pricier to start with, but would have expected some prices heading downward. Whiteflash just raised their prices on tennis bracelets which was very surprising - and still no ACAs.

 

[tyty333]

Agree @MissGotRocks ! That's why I may go straight to a 3 stone. Was hoping to upgrade the center then
go with a 3-stone but may just go straight to a 3 stone with current center and larger sides. My frugal gene is a curse!

 

[MissGotRocks]

Agree @MissGotRocks ! That's why I may go straight to a 3 stone. Was hoping to upgrade the center then
go with a 3-stone but may just go straight to a 3 stone with current center and larger sides. My frugal gene is a curse!

Well, with all the talk of diamond prices falling, it is hard to see the prices still so high. I am sure there are reasons for this but for the most part, consumers don't get it. We see here that they are searching other sites much more frequently. Not getting that cut quality, but are willing to sacrifice that for price much more readily.

 

[freddyboston]

Savvy move these days for a E-Ring natural buyer on a budget is to leverage the vendor 2x$ upgrade option and underspend the budget 50-60% on a placeholder stone now and upgrade to bigger better next year when the market hopefully settles a bit.....

 

[MissGotRocks]

Savvy move these days for a E-Ring natural buyer on a budget is to leverage the vendor 2x$ upgrade option and underspend the budget 50-60% on a placeholder stone now and upgrade to bigger better next year when the market hopefully settles a bit.....

Yes, I agree. Particularly if the market does go down some next year. The crystal balls are hard to come by though, but the thinking makes sense.

 

[Rockdiamond]

How much have lab grown diamonds plummeted @Rockdiamond?
Since 2020? @Karl_K?

I think we’re near the bottom on curated, well cut lab diamonds below 5cts.
I’d say a 5ct lab in 2020 would have been $25k which sounds nuts today. But even that buyer when compared to a natural saved a ton of money.
I disagree with @Karl_K that the economy is depressing natural diamond sales. I’d love to know the actual number of rings being sold year by year. I believe as many rings or more were sold in 2023 compared to 2022.
People have money. It just makes a lot more sense to buy a lab diamond to a large percentage of buyers. I don’t see that changing.

 

[tyty333]

I think I remember someone early on looking at a 5 carat for $35k. A huge savings over a natural but 5 carat labs are selling
for about $5k now??? I didnt go look. Just going off the top of my brain!

 

[glitterata]

Savvy move these days for a E-Ring natural buyer on a budget is to leverage the vendor 2x$ upgrade option and underspend the budget 50-60% on a placeholder stone now and upgrade to bigger better next year when the market hopefully settles a bit.....

Why isn't the savvy move to just wait for prices to drop further, perhaps with a lab or colored stone placeholder? If you now buy something you don't want to keep, you're tied to the place you purchased it and their stock for upgrade. Maybe they won't have what you want later on, maybe they'll overcharge for it, maybe they'll go out of business.

 

[freddyboston]

After literally years of telling us how the prices of natural diamonds have been stable, finally Rappaport has changed the list to better reflect the current market. The decreases in the list are broad based. I’ve never seen such a large broad based drop in the list.
It’s really not going to affect the real prices people are paying because the market has already corrected to a great degree.
Rap says 50% of engagement rings in 2024 are man made diamonds. But he expects that to plummet in 2025. He’s clueless if you ask me

interesting how most/all of the declines are left side IF->VS2 while SI -> unchanged

 

[freddyboston]

Why isn't the savvy move to just wait for prices to drop further, perhaps with a lab or colored stone placeholder? If you now buy something you don't want to keep, you're tied to the place you purchased it and their stock for upgrade. Maybe they won't have what you want later on, maybe they'll overcharge for it, maybe they'll go out of business.

Well if you want to get married you won't want wait to buy....Upgrade play might be safest with Signet (BN or JA) - deep pockets + commmited to Naturals.... they should have plenty of nice African Stones in the future... Future might disintermediaton of the middle (sightholders/bourses) and we see a natural market shift to Mine owned and polished-> List on Signet-> Consumer

Leaders of De Beers and Signet meet teams in Botswana to discuss future opportunities for natural diamonds

Leaders of De Beers and Signet meet teams in Botswana to discuss future opportunities for natural diamonds

www.debeersgroup.com

 

[Rockdiamond]

interesting how most/all of the declines are left side IF->VS2 while SI -> unchanged

IMO- this really proves the disconnected nature of the list at this point.
In a weak market, SI and more imperfect goods are definitely impacted.
Maybe he didn't want to have the list where every grade was declined. Maybe wait till next list.
It also shows the list has been artificially propped up for a while now.
Diamonds - natural diamonds- are still valuable. To a lesser degree than they were, but still.

Stones like "Super Ideal" stones- or other custom cut, or specialty stones are still a strong strong sub market, and I don't see that changing.

 

[oldminer]

The apparent price stability of super ideal stones is partially supported by their relatively slow turnover compared to commercial 3EX stones. The cost of the current super ideal inventory diamonds was established when they were cut and sold to their various retailers from weeks to more than 12 months ago. Selling for a less is really painful, especially when costs are increasing for overhead and borrowing.

If rough continues to be available at lower prices than a year or two ago, then at some time lower prices on super ideal stones may start to show in that market, too. This will depend on turnover of existing inventory and competitive forces that are not an open book to most of us.

 

[Rockdiamond]

Great point @oldminer !
My fervent hope is that the value added by people who cut "super ideal" diamonds- and other boutique sellers- can prove and sustain the price structure.
For me personally- I feel "protected" a bit because of the sort of business we do- curated items.
When Costco started selling diamonds, it didn't put Tiffany out of business......that sort of idea.
As evidence....fancy colored diamonds haven't been as hard hit as colorless diamonds. A more boutique and curated market.
But your guess is as good as anyone's!!

 

[JPie]

Any observations on how prices have been for true antique diamonds? I don’t feel like I’ve seen those prices come down much at all, but to be fair, I haven’t been paying close attention.

 

[maryjane04]

Any observations on how prices have been for true antique diamonds? I don’t feel like I’ve seen those prices come down much at all, but to be fair, I haven’t been paying close attention.

From my personal observation I see prices on some <2cts being discounted moreso than on larger 4ct+ stones which are holding steady and even increasing in price. My upgrade stone in particular was cheaper a few months back and then increased in price a few times before I purchased it.

 

[JPie]

From my personal observation I see prices on some <2cts being discounted moreso than on larger 4ct+ stones which are holding steady and even increasing in price. My upgrade stone in particular was cheaper a few months back and then increased in price a few times before I purchased it.

Thank you for sharing! Your upgrade is spectacular!

 

[maryjane04]

Thank you for sharing! Your upgrade is spectacular!

Thank you! And your anniversary present is beautiful a well! I definitely think that the old cuts are similar to fancy coloured diamonds in the sense that it's still very desirable and unable to be replicated.

 

[Texas Leaguer]

From my personal observation I see prices on some <2cts being discounted moreso than on larger 4ct+ stones which are holding steady and even increasing in price. My upgrade stone in particular was cheaper a few months back and then increased in price a few times before I purchased it.

This is the problem with trying to time the market. Any market. But especially one in an unusual degree of flux with so many unpredictable factors affecting it.

Many of those factors have been mentioned here such as inflation, student load debt, the emergence of lab diamonds, the rapid fall of lab diamond prices, buyer psychology and generational consumer trends. Also, a destabilizing Russian aggression in Europe and sanctions on Russian diamonds. What do diamond mining companies do in response, and how will that change the supply situation and what impacts will that have on future values? Trying to do the calculus is so challenging that I don't think anybody knows where the market goes from here. It is just as likely to be at a bottom with a big upside potential as it is to fall any further.

 

[freddyboston]

Aug 30 '24 ......More Drops !