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- Sep 17, 2008
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Being a gem forum there's something fitting about this name...lol
There's a lot going on but will concentrate on Beryl for now.
Cone only tells you that this is where the eye of the storm is. Damage happens well outside the cone. This is due to be a hurricane by Sunday.
Current GFS shows that Beryl could have a possible Texas landfall around July 10 but that's over 10 days away and lots can change within that time frame. Thats literally only one model run and no concurrence from any other model. Lots of things can change this far out, heck even 24 hours out things change. Gulf states should be watching no matter what.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 291232 CCA
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 3A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024
Corrected distance from Barbados
...BERYL STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 46.8W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely
be required for portions of this area later this morning.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 46.8 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A relatively quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move
across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during
the next couple of days, and Beryl is forecast to become a
hurricane tonight or early Sunday with additional strengthening
expected after that.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
by Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Sunday.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands.
This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero
SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
There's a lot going on but will concentrate on Beryl for now.
Cone only tells you that this is where the eye of the storm is. Damage happens well outside the cone. This is due to be a hurricane by Sunday.
Current GFS shows that Beryl could have a possible Texas landfall around July 10 but that's over 10 days away and lots can change within that time frame. Thats literally only one model run and no concurrence from any other model. Lots of things can change this far out, heck even 24 hours out things change. Gulf states should be watching no matter what.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 291232 CCA
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 3A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024
Corrected distance from Barbados
...BERYL STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 46.8W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely
be required for portions of this area later this morning.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 46.8 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A relatively quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move
across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during
the next couple of days, and Beryl is forecast to become a
hurricane tonight or early Sunday with additional strengthening
expected after that.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
by Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Sunday.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands.
This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero
SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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