- Joined
- Sep 17, 2008
- Messages
- 9,209
Storm Francine
- Thread starter Arcadian
- Start date
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2008
- Messages
- 9,209
There is a ton of model agreement on Francine. Hurricane Hunters are out so the center for the eye is moved more west.
Coastal Texas and a bit inland is going to feel some of the effects as early as tonight. There's still a call for it to be a hurricane as its going over the warm gulf waters and its going to be a pretty direct hit to Louisiana. If there's more westerly moves then Texas will feel this more.
The wind field is already pretty large, with affects being felt far from the eye on this one. sorry guys, its gonna be a nasty ride.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 092053
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
Since the prior advisory, Francine's structure has continued to
improve. Curved bands are becoming more obvious on geostationary
satellite imagery, even if the coldest cloud tops have warmed from
earlier today. The last Air Force reconnaissance mission into
Francine on its final center fix found a formative inner-core with a
partial eyewall, 850 mb flight level winds up to 58 kt, and pressure
down to 996 mb, a significant drop from this morning. These data
were the basis for bringing the 18 UTC intensity up to 50 kt. Since
then, a mid-level eye feature on the Brownsville radar has become
apparent. Assuming some additional deepening, the initial intensity
is set to 55 kt for this advisory.
With the center becoming better established, the motion is a bit
easier to estimate, currently at 340/6 kt. While the system has
reformed a bit west of the previous track, the overall thinking has
not changed much, as Francine will be moving around the periphery of
a mid-level ridge centered over Cuba, and an upper-level trough
propagating into Texas. This trough will ultimately shift the track
of a more vertically deep Francine northeastward tomorrow with
gradual acceleration until the storm makes landfall sometime between
48 to 60 h. The track guidance this cycle has shifted westward,
likely due to the more westward initial position, and is also a
little faster. The latest NHC track forecast follows suit, showing a
shift to the west and a faster motion, blending the prior forecast
towards the reliable consensus aids TCVN and HCCA.
With the forming inner-core earlier observed by recon and still seen
on radar currently, the tropical storm appears poised to intensify
more significantly in the short term. Given the low vertical wind
shear, ample moisture, and very warm sea-surface temperatures, a
faster rate of intensification is shown over the next 36 h, and
Francine is now forecast to become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow
morning, and a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday. In the final
12-18 h before landfall, shear is expected to increase markedly,
which will likely halt the intensification, though Francine is
expected to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening
is expected after the system moves inland. The NHC intensity
forecast is on the upper-end of the overall intensity guidance, but
still is lower than some of the hurricane-regional model guidance
(HAFS-B, HMON).
Given the changes to the forecast, Hurricane and Storm Surge
Warnings have been issued for a significant portion of the
Louisiana coastline.
An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Francine is expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast
of Louisiana on Wednesday, and there is a danger of life-threatening
storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines
where a Storm Surge Warning is now in effect. Residents in the
warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders,
given by local officials.
2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is now in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico,
the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, southern Louisiana, and
southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and
urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from
Wednesday into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 24.0N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 24.8N 96.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 25.9N 95.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 27.4N 94.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 29.4N 92.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 31.8N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1800Z 34.2N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/1800Z 36.9N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/1800Z 38.2N 89.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Papin
Coastal Texas and a bit inland is going to feel some of the effects as early as tonight. There's still a call for it to be a hurricane as its going over the warm gulf waters and its going to be a pretty direct hit to Louisiana. If there's more westerly moves then Texas will feel this more.
The wind field is already pretty large, with affects being felt far from the eye on this one. sorry guys, its gonna be a nasty ride.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 092053
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
Since the prior advisory, Francine's structure has continued to
improve. Curved bands are becoming more obvious on geostationary
satellite imagery, even if the coldest cloud tops have warmed from
earlier today. The last Air Force reconnaissance mission into
Francine on its final center fix found a formative inner-core with a
partial eyewall, 850 mb flight level winds up to 58 kt, and pressure
down to 996 mb, a significant drop from this morning. These data
were the basis for bringing the 18 UTC intensity up to 50 kt. Since
then, a mid-level eye feature on the Brownsville radar has become
apparent. Assuming some additional deepening, the initial intensity
is set to 55 kt for this advisory.
With the center becoming better established, the motion is a bit
easier to estimate, currently at 340/6 kt. While the system has
reformed a bit west of the previous track, the overall thinking has
not changed much, as Francine will be moving around the periphery of
a mid-level ridge centered over Cuba, and an upper-level trough
propagating into Texas. This trough will ultimately shift the track
of a more vertically deep Francine northeastward tomorrow with
gradual acceleration until the storm makes landfall sometime between
48 to 60 h. The track guidance this cycle has shifted westward,
likely due to the more westward initial position, and is also a
little faster. The latest NHC track forecast follows suit, showing a
shift to the west and a faster motion, blending the prior forecast
towards the reliable consensus aids TCVN and HCCA.
With the forming inner-core earlier observed by recon and still seen
on radar currently, the tropical storm appears poised to intensify
more significantly in the short term. Given the low vertical wind
shear, ample moisture, and very warm sea-surface temperatures, a
faster rate of intensification is shown over the next 36 h, and
Francine is now forecast to become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow
morning, and a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday. In the final
12-18 h before landfall, shear is expected to increase markedly,
which will likely halt the intensification, though Francine is
expected to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening
is expected after the system moves inland. The NHC intensity
forecast is on the upper-end of the overall intensity guidance, but
still is lower than some of the hurricane-regional model guidance
(HAFS-B, HMON).
Given the changes to the forecast, Hurricane and Storm Surge
Warnings have been issued for a significant portion of the
Louisiana coastline.
An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Francine is expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast
of Louisiana on Wednesday, and there is a danger of life-threatening
storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines
where a Storm Surge Warning is now in effect. Residents in the
warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders,
given by local officials.
2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is now in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico,
the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, southern Louisiana, and
southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and
urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from
Wednesday into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 24.0N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 24.8N 96.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 25.9N 95.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 27.4N 94.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 29.4N 92.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 31.8N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1800Z 34.2N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/1800Z 36.9N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/1800Z 38.2N 89.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Papin
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2008
- Messages
- 9,209
The current GFS track
Also hurricane missions which help to physically pinpoint all this crazy stuff more than a computer model can.
Aircraft Reconnaissance | Tropical Tidbits
Live updating recon data for the Atlantic basin
www.tropicaltidbits.com
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2008
- Messages
- 9,209
Some new updates (and I like the new warning system!):
The storm has moved east so NOLA needs to be on alert as we know how it floods. In addition, coastal Mississippi and Alabama (and parts of Floribama) need to be on watch too. Coastal Texas will get rain and probably some flooding as it comes by, but if the storm continues to move east it won't be too much.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 101449
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024
Satellite imagery and data from the WSR-88D Doppler radar in
Brownsville indicate that the central core of Francine has become
better organized, with the development of a central dense overcast
and increased convective banding near the center. In addition,
reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
show that the central pressure has fallen to around 988 mb. However,
these developments have not yet resulted an increase in wind speed,
as the aircraft-reported winds still support an intensity near
55 kt this advisory.
After meandering last night, Francine is now moving
north-northeastward with an initial motion of 020/7 kt. An
approaching mid-latitude shortwave trough over Texas should cause
the storm to turn northeastward at a faster forward speed during the
next 24-36 h, and this motion should bring the center to the
Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. After
landfall, Francine should turn more northward between the trough and
a mid-level ridge over the eastern United States. The track
guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario. However,
there has been an eastward shift of the guidance since the last
advisory, and thus the new forecast track is also shifted eastward.
In response to this eastward shift in track and southeastern wind
radii, the hurricane warning in Louisiana was extended eastward at
12Z, and this advisory has new tropical storm warnings and watches
for the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama.
Francine has about 24-30 h to strengthen over warm water before it
encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there is a
possibility that dry air entrainment could reduce the
intensification rate, the intensity continues to call for steady to
rapid strengthening during this time based on the otherwise
favorable conditions. While it is not explicitly shown in the
latest forecast, the cyclone could reach a peak intensity near 85 kt
between the 24 h point and landfall. Intensification is expected to
stop before landfall, and rapid weakening is expected after
landfall. The global models show the remnants of Francine
dissipating after 96 h, and the intensity forecast follows that
scenario. Overall, the intensity forecast is at the upper edge of
the intensity guidance.
An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of
the Upper Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi coastlines where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should
follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local
officials.
2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding for far northeast Mexico into
the far southern coast of Texas today and across much of Louisiana
and Mississippi through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is
probable across the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 24.9N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 26.0N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 27.8N 93.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 29.9N 91.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1200Z 32.2N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1200Z 35.8N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z 37.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
The storm has moved east so NOLA needs to be on alert as we know how it floods. In addition, coastal Mississippi and Alabama (and parts of Floribama) need to be on watch too. Coastal Texas will get rain and probably some flooding as it comes by, but if the storm continues to move east it won't be too much.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 101449
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024
Satellite imagery and data from the WSR-88D Doppler radar in
Brownsville indicate that the central core of Francine has become
better organized, with the development of a central dense overcast
and increased convective banding near the center. In addition,
reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
show that the central pressure has fallen to around 988 mb. However,
these developments have not yet resulted an increase in wind speed,
as the aircraft-reported winds still support an intensity near
55 kt this advisory.
After meandering last night, Francine is now moving
north-northeastward with an initial motion of 020/7 kt. An
approaching mid-latitude shortwave trough over Texas should cause
the storm to turn northeastward at a faster forward speed during the
next 24-36 h, and this motion should bring the center to the
Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. After
landfall, Francine should turn more northward between the trough and
a mid-level ridge over the eastern United States. The track
guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario. However,
there has been an eastward shift of the guidance since the last
advisory, and thus the new forecast track is also shifted eastward.
In response to this eastward shift in track and southeastern wind
radii, the hurricane warning in Louisiana was extended eastward at
12Z, and this advisory has new tropical storm warnings and watches
for the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama.
Francine has about 24-30 h to strengthen over warm water before it
encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there is a
possibility that dry air entrainment could reduce the
intensification rate, the intensity continues to call for steady to
rapid strengthening during this time based on the otherwise
favorable conditions. While it is not explicitly shown in the
latest forecast, the cyclone could reach a peak intensity near 85 kt
between the 24 h point and landfall. Intensification is expected to
stop before landfall, and rapid weakening is expected after
landfall. The global models show the remnants of Francine
dissipating after 96 h, and the intensity forecast follows that
scenario. Overall, the intensity forecast is at the upper edge of
the intensity guidance.
An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of
the Upper Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi coastlines where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should
follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local
officials.
2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding for far northeast Mexico into
the far southern coast of Texas today and across much of Louisiana
and Mississippi through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is
probable across the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 24.9N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 26.0N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 27.8N 93.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 29.9N 91.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1200Z 32.2N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1200Z 35.8N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z 37.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2008
- Messages
- 9,209
Another move to the east
000
WTNT41 KNHC 102038
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024
The convection associated with Francine has not changed much in
organization during the past six hours. Radar data from the
WSR-88D Doppler radar in Brownsville shows good curved banding
around the center, but the convection is having trouble persisting,
possibly due to continued dry air entrainment. Reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft prior to 18Z showed that
the central pressure had dropped to near 987 mb, and that the
maximum 700-mb flight-level winds were 63 kt. Based on these data
and satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, the initial
intensity is set at 55 kt.
The initial motion is now 035/9 kt. An approaching mid-latitude
shortwave trough over Texas should cause the storm to move
northeastward at a faster forward speed during the next 24-36 h,
and this motion should bring the center to the Louisiana coast
sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. After that time, Francine
should turn more northward between the trough and a mid-level ridge
over the eastern United States. While there is little change to
the track forecast scenario since the last advisory, the track
guidance has again shifted to the east, most notably between
12-48 h. Based on this change, the forecast track during that
period is again nudged a little to the east. The new track lies
just to the left of the various consensus models.
Francine has about 24 h to strengthen over warm water before it
encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there
remains a possibility that dry air entrainment could continue to
reduce the intensification rate, the intensity forecast continues
to call for steady to rapid strengthening during this time based on
the otherwise favorable conditions, and the forecast peak intensity
of 80 kt is at the high end of the intensity guidance.
Intensification is expected to stop near or just before landfall,
and rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The global models
continue to show the remnants of Francine dissipating after 96 h,
and the intensity forecast again follows that scenario.
An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for the
Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice,
including evacuation orders, given by local officials.
2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding across eastern Louisiana,
Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle
through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the
Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night
into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 25.7N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 26.9N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 28.9N 92.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 31.0N 90.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1800Z 33.4N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 13/0600Z 35.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1800Z 36.1N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z 37.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
000
WTNT41 KNHC 102038
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024
The convection associated with Francine has not changed much in
organization during the past six hours. Radar data from the
WSR-88D Doppler radar in Brownsville shows good curved banding
around the center, but the convection is having trouble persisting,
possibly due to continued dry air entrainment. Reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft prior to 18Z showed that
the central pressure had dropped to near 987 mb, and that the
maximum 700-mb flight-level winds were 63 kt. Based on these data
and satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, the initial
intensity is set at 55 kt.
The initial motion is now 035/9 kt. An approaching mid-latitude
shortwave trough over Texas should cause the storm to move
northeastward at a faster forward speed during the next 24-36 h,
and this motion should bring the center to the Louisiana coast
sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. After that time, Francine
should turn more northward between the trough and a mid-level ridge
over the eastern United States. While there is little change to
the track forecast scenario since the last advisory, the track
guidance has again shifted to the east, most notably between
12-48 h. Based on this change, the forecast track during that
period is again nudged a little to the east. The new track lies
just to the left of the various consensus models.
Francine has about 24 h to strengthen over warm water before it
encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there
remains a possibility that dry air entrainment could continue to
reduce the intensification rate, the intensity forecast continues
to call for steady to rapid strengthening during this time based on
the otherwise favorable conditions, and the forecast peak intensity
of 80 kt is at the high end of the intensity guidance.
Intensification is expected to stop near or just before landfall,
and rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The global models
continue to show the remnants of Francine dissipating after 96 h,
and the intensity forecast again follows that scenario.
An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for the
Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice,
including evacuation orders, given by local officials.
2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding across eastern Louisiana,
Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle
through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the
Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night
into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 25.7N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 26.9N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 28.9N 92.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 31.0N 90.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1800Z 33.4N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 13/0600Z 35.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1800Z 36.1N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z 37.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2008
- Messages
- 9,209
000
WTNT41 KNHC 111445
TCDAT1
Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Francine has changed little in intensity during the
last several hours. Flight-level winds from the aircraft
and a northwest eyewall dropsonde suggest that the maximum
sustained surface winds are near 80 kt, and the central pressure is
near 976 mb. The aircraft have been reporting a large elliptical
eye open to the south, which matches the depiction of the eye in
WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Lake Charles. Satellite imagery
does show that the cloud pattern is becoming elongated from
northeast to southwest due to the increasing effects of
southwesterly shear.
The initial motion is now 040/10 kt. A slightly faster northeastward
motion is forecast this afternoon and tonight as the hurricane
becomes steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas. This
will bring the core of Francine toward the Louisiana coast, with
landfall expected within the hurricane warning area late this
afternoon or evening. After landfall, a gradual turn toward the
north will bring the center of Francine across southeastern
Louisiana and southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday.
After that, a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected until the cyclone dissipates. There is little change to
either the track guidance or the track forecast from the previous
advisory.
Due to the increasing shear and the possibility that drier air will
wrap around the south side of the center, little change in strength
is expected before landfall. However, Francine will continue to
pose a significant risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging
winds to locations in the warning areas. Once inland, Francine is
expected to quickly weaken while also losing tropical
characteristics. Transition to an extratropical cyclone is expected
to be complete by Friday morning.
An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today for the
Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is
in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow
advice given by local officials.
2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana later today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Ensure you are in a safe location before the
onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding,
across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban
flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 28.0N 92.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 29.5N 91.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR COAST
24H 12/1200Z 31.8N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0000Z 34.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/1200Z 35.2N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 14/0000Z 35.7N 90.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2008
- Messages
- 9,209
There's been a big pressure drop and its now 100mph wind wise. The shifts east has been really crazy. Hope everyone stays safe during this thing. The good is that its moving pretty fast and should be off the coast in in the next 12 hours.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 112056
TCDAT1
Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Satellite, radar, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data indicate that not only has Francine stayed well organized
during the past six hours despite increasing westerly shear, it has
strengthened a little. The latest reports from the aircraft showed
the central pressure has fallen to near 972 mb with maximum 700
mb flight-level winds of 99 kt to the southeast of the center.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt.
The initial motion is now 045/15 kt. The flow between a mid- to
upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level
trough over Texas should steer Francine northeastward for the next
12 h or so. The hurricane is expected to make landfall along the
Louisiana coast in the next few hours and move across southeastern
Louisiana tonight. After that, a turn toward the north on the east
side of the trough will bring the center of Francine across
southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday. This should be
followed by a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed
until the cyclone dissipates. The new track guidance is a little
faster than for the previous advisory, so the new forecast track is
similar to, but faster than, the previous track.
Little change in strength is expected during the final hours before
landfall. After landfall, Francine is expected to quickly weaken
while also losing tropical characteristics. Transition to an
extratropical cyclone is expected to be complete by Friday morning,
with the cyclone forecast to dissipate after 60 h.
An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through
tonight for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area
should continue to follow advice given by local officials.
2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana this evening and tonight, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. Ensure you are in a safe location
before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding,
across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban
flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 29.2N 91.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 30.8N 90.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/1800Z 33.3N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0600Z 35.0N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/1800Z 35.7N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 14/0600Z 36.3N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
000
WTNT41 KNHC 112056
TCDAT1
Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Satellite, radar, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data indicate that not only has Francine stayed well organized
during the past six hours despite increasing westerly shear, it has
strengthened a little. The latest reports from the aircraft showed
the central pressure has fallen to near 972 mb with maximum 700
mb flight-level winds of 99 kt to the southeast of the center.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt.
The initial motion is now 045/15 kt. The flow between a mid- to
upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level
trough over Texas should steer Francine northeastward for the next
12 h or so. The hurricane is expected to make landfall along the
Louisiana coast in the next few hours and move across southeastern
Louisiana tonight. After that, a turn toward the north on the east
side of the trough will bring the center of Francine across
southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday. This should be
followed by a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed
until the cyclone dissipates. The new track guidance is a little
faster than for the previous advisory, so the new forecast track is
similar to, but faster than, the previous track.
Little change in strength is expected during the final hours before
landfall. After landfall, Francine is expected to quickly weaken
while also losing tropical characteristics. Transition to an
extratropical cyclone is expected to be complete by Friday morning,
with the cyclone forecast to dissipate after 60 h.
An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through
tonight for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area
should continue to follow advice given by local officials.
2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana this evening and tonight, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. Ensure you are in a safe location
before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding,
across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban
flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 29.2N 91.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 30.8N 90.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/1800Z 33.3N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0600Z 35.0N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/1800Z 35.7N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 14/0600Z 36.3N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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