- Joined
- Sep 17, 2008
- Messages
- 9,344
Storm Rafael
- Thread starter Arcadian
- Start date
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2008
- Messages
- 9,344
078
WTNT43 KNHC 052041
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
radar data from Grand Cayman indicate that Rafael has developed an
inner wind core during the past several hours. The radar data shows
the development of a ragged eye, and the Hurricane Hunter reported
850-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt about 30-35 n mi northeast of the
center. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure has
fallen to near 989 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity
is increased to 60 kt. The wind radii have been revised some based
on the aircraft data.
The initial motion is northwestward at 325/13 kt. Rafael is
currently on the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic, and this feature should steer the cyclone
generally northwestward for the next 36-48 h, with the center
passing near the Cayman Islands and over western Cuba. From 48-72
h, the models are in better agreement that the center should turn
more westward as the ridge builds a little westward along the
northern Gulf coast. After 72 h, there remains some significant
spread in the track guidance, due partly to differences in how fast
Rafael will shear apart and due partly to differences in the
forecast strength of the ridge along the Gulf coast. The GFS
weakens the ridge and shows a northward turn, while the ECMWF keeps
a stronger ridge and shows a more westward motion. The
deterministic UKMET has now changed to a northward turn scenario,
but the HWRF, HMON, and UKMET ensemble mean join the ECMWF with a
westward motion. As mentioned with the previous forecast, until
there is a clearer signal on which of these scenarios is more
likely, the forecast compromises between these extremes with a slow
turn toward the north over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Now that Rafael has developed an inner wind core, conditions are
favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during the next 24 h or
so. The system is expected to reach hurricane strength during
the next several hours as it passes through the Cayman Islands with
additional strengthening before it reaches Cuba. While the peak
intensity forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance,
there is a chance that Rafael could get stronger than currently
forecast. Once the center is north of 25N in the Gulf of Mexico,
the cyclone is likely to encounter increasing vertical wind shear,
dry air entrainment, and cooler sea surface temperatures, which
should lead to Rafael weakening and eventually shearing apart
vertically. This part of the intensity forecast lies near or just
above the intensity consensus.
Key Messages:
1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over
the Cayman Islands during the next 12 hours, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Additional strengthening is expected before
Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A
hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging
hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive
waves are also expected.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night.
3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.
4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
western Caribbean through early Thursday, including Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands, along with southern and western portions of Cuba.
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain
in Jamaica and Cuba.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 19.1N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 20.5N 80.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 82.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 24.1N 83.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 25.0N 85.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 25.4N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 25.8N 87.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 27.1N 90.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 28.8N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2008
- Messages
- 9,344
The clouds moving outside my window..they're pretty fast which is all from this storm currently.
Even though we won't get any landfall, where the storm currently is positioned, we get some of the weather from it.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 060851
TCDAT3
Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024
Rafael continues to intensify as it approaches western Cuba. Deep
convection within the hurricane's Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is
very intense, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. There are
also strong convective banding features surrounding the CDO.
Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a
closed eyewall at times, with the central pressure falling at a
rate of around 2 mb per hour. Based on the highest flight-level
winds reported from the aircraft so far, the current intensity is
set at 80 kt for this advisory. Rafael's inner core is relatively
small in size, with hurricane-force winds extending about 25 n mi
from its 10-15 n mi wide eye.
The hurricane continues its northwestward trek, and the initial
motion is a slightly faster 315/12 kt. For the next day or two,
Rafael should continue to move along the southwestern side of a
mid-level high pressure system and move over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico through Thursday night. After 48 hours the track guidance
becomes very divergent, with a number of model solutions taking the
system toward the southwest Gulf in 3-4 days. It appears that,
during the latter part of the forecast period, a mid-level ridge
could build to the north of the tropical cyclone. This could
force Rafael to turn to the west or south of west in 4 to 5 days.
In order to maintain continuity from the previous NHC predictions,
the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous
one, but not as far as dictated by the latest model consensus. If
future model runs continue to show this trend, however, additional
leftward adjustment to the NHC track may be required.
Rafael is expected remain in an environment of high oceanic heat
content, low vertical wind shear and a very moist low- to
mid-tropospheric air mass until the center reaches western Cuba.
Therefore, the cyclone will probably be nearing major hurricane
status at landfall in Cuba. Once the system moves over the Gulf of
Mexico, the environment should become increasingly less conducive
for Rafael to maintain its intensity. Increasing southwesterly
shear, significantly drier air, and gradually decreasing SSTs are
likely to result in weakening. The official forecast remains near
the high end of the model guidance in the 3- to 5-day forecast
period. This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Rafael is expected to strengthen to near major hurricane
intensity before reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth
today. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where
damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and
destructive waves are also expected.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning today and tonight.
3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.
4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of
Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and
mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 20.6N 81.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Even though we won't get any landfall, where the storm currently is positioned, we get some of the weather from it.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 060851
TCDAT3
Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024
Rafael continues to intensify as it approaches western Cuba. Deep
convection within the hurricane's Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is
very intense, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. There are
also strong convective banding features surrounding the CDO.
Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a
closed eyewall at times, with the central pressure falling at a
rate of around 2 mb per hour. Based on the highest flight-level
winds reported from the aircraft so far, the current intensity is
set at 80 kt for this advisory. Rafael's inner core is relatively
small in size, with hurricane-force winds extending about 25 n mi
from its 10-15 n mi wide eye.
The hurricane continues its northwestward trek, and the initial
motion is a slightly faster 315/12 kt. For the next day or two,
Rafael should continue to move along the southwestern side of a
mid-level high pressure system and move over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico through Thursday night. After 48 hours the track guidance
becomes very divergent, with a number of model solutions taking the
system toward the southwest Gulf in 3-4 days. It appears that,
during the latter part of the forecast period, a mid-level ridge
could build to the north of the tropical cyclone. This could
force Rafael to turn to the west or south of west in 4 to 5 days.
In order to maintain continuity from the previous NHC predictions,
the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous
one, but not as far as dictated by the latest model consensus. If
future model runs continue to show this trend, however, additional
leftward adjustment to the NHC track may be required.
Rafael is expected remain in an environment of high oceanic heat
content, low vertical wind shear and a very moist low- to
mid-tropospheric air mass until the center reaches western Cuba.
Therefore, the cyclone will probably be nearing major hurricane
status at landfall in Cuba. Once the system moves over the Gulf of
Mexico, the environment should become increasingly less conducive
for Rafael to maintain its intensity. Increasing southwesterly
shear, significantly drier air, and gradually decreasing SSTs are
likely to result in weakening. The official forecast remains near
the high end of the model guidance in the 3- to 5-day forecast
period. This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Rafael is expected to strengthen to near major hurricane
intensity before reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth
today. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where
damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and
destructive waves are also expected.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning today and tonight.
3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.
4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of
Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and
mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 20.6N 81.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2008
- Messages
- 27,709
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2008
- Messages
- 9,344
Looks like there's been a shift on this storm. Well ok then!
000
WTNT43 KNHC 062049
TCDAT3
Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024
The radar and satellite presentation of Rafael continued to improve
after the release of the previous advisory with the eye becoming
quite distinct around midday in geostationary satellite imagery.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was able to fly a
couple of passes through the center earlier this afternoon and
measured a peak flight-level wind of 104 kt and an extrapolated
minimum pressure of 956 mb. The aircraft was unable to sample the
northeastern quadrant where the maximum winds were likely located.
Therefore, the initial intensity was increased to 100 kt on the
1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The 100-kt initial intensity is
supported by a blend of the various UW/CIMSS objective Dvorak
estimates, and UW/CIMSS SATCON which peaked near that value. Over
the past few hours it appears that an eyewall replacement cycle is
underway as the eye has become less distinct in satellite imagery,
and radar data has shown the erosion of the smaller inner-eyewall.
With the eyewall replacement ongoing, little additional change in
strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba
within the next hour or so. Some weakening is expected as the
storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over
the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few
days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and
significantly drier air are likely to result in weakening. As
noted earlier, there are some models that take Rafael southwestward
late in the period over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where
environmental conditions could be less hostile. If additional
southward adjustments to the track forecast are needed on
subsequent advisories, it is likely that some modest upward
adjustments to the longer-range intensity may also be required.
The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 320/11 kt. Rafael
is expected to continue to move around the southwestern side of
a mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic during the next
day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build
westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico which should cause Rafael
to turn more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico. By 72
hours, the spread in the track guidance increases once again, with
the GFS showing a more northward solution than most of the
remainder of the track guidance. The NHC track forecast has been
shifted southward once again to be in better agreement with the
various consensus aids. It is possible that future southward and
southwestward adjustment will be needed as several of the models
now show the cyclone moving west-southwestward over the southwestern
Gulf by the end of the period.
Key Messages:
1. Rafael is forecast to cross western Cuba as a major hurricane
this afternoon and evening. A hurricane warning is in effect for
this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging
hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in
the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight.
3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are
expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba.
4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 22.6N 82.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
000
WTNT43 KNHC 062049
TCDAT3
Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024
The radar and satellite presentation of Rafael continued to improve
after the release of the previous advisory with the eye becoming
quite distinct around midday in geostationary satellite imagery.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was able to fly a
couple of passes through the center earlier this afternoon and
measured a peak flight-level wind of 104 kt and an extrapolated
minimum pressure of 956 mb. The aircraft was unable to sample the
northeastern quadrant where the maximum winds were likely located.
Therefore, the initial intensity was increased to 100 kt on the
1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The 100-kt initial intensity is
supported by a blend of the various UW/CIMSS objective Dvorak
estimates, and UW/CIMSS SATCON which peaked near that value. Over
the past few hours it appears that an eyewall replacement cycle is
underway as the eye has become less distinct in satellite imagery,
and radar data has shown the erosion of the smaller inner-eyewall.
With the eyewall replacement ongoing, little additional change in
strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba
within the next hour or so. Some weakening is expected as the
storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over
the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few
days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and
significantly drier air are likely to result in weakening. As
noted earlier, there are some models that take Rafael southwestward
late in the period over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where
environmental conditions could be less hostile. If additional
southward adjustments to the track forecast are needed on
subsequent advisories, it is likely that some modest upward
adjustments to the longer-range intensity may also be required.
The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 320/11 kt. Rafael
is expected to continue to move around the southwestern side of
a mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic during the next
day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build
westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico which should cause Rafael
to turn more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico. By 72
hours, the spread in the track guidance increases once again, with
the GFS showing a more northward solution than most of the
remainder of the track guidance. The NHC track forecast has been
shifted southward once again to be in better agreement with the
various consensus aids. It is possible that future southward and
southwestward adjustment will be needed as several of the models
now show the cyclone moving west-southwestward over the southwestern
Gulf by the end of the period.
Key Messages:
1. Rafael is forecast to cross western Cuba as a major hurricane
this afternoon and evening. A hurricane warning is in effect for
this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging
hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in
the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight.
3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are
expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba.
4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 22.6N 82.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
- Joined
- Nov 7, 2024
- Messages
- 1
Thanks for sharing.
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2008
- Messages
- 9,344
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