thoughts on rarity and prices...

[ohlala]

i'm talking about FCD...but i think this question applies to other stones as well. how do you really know just how rare something is?

just because i don't see it often...doesn't mean it is rare...or as rare as one thinks. i'm starting to think a lot of the good stuff just gets directly acquired by specific collectors or dealers. until the prices reach a high point...or they decided to "hype" that specific item, do the dealer/owners release it to the public.

i was kind of surprised this time by the recent auction. the item i'm talking about is a ring with a FPuR 1.61cts center stone and eight oval-shaped diamonds ~0.5ct D~E, weighing a total of approximately 4.11 carats and FLP detail. the FPuR has a letter from Argyle stating it's rarity. before the auction occurred i speculated in my head, based on hearing in here and elsewhere that FR diamonds are extremely rare and one over 1ct even rarer, that it would go for millions

however, it barely pass the minimum...only if you add the auction house premium (25%) does it go over the min estimate. the auction house itself did not seem to highlight this FR much either. i'm wondering if a red is really that rare...and if they are rare, are they really that desired. because it isn't a featured items and this just barely passed the auction house minimum. or maybe because it is only 1.61cts so too small for most rich people..?? but i thought anything over 1ct and SI clarity for FR is very very rare. what do you think?

another thing is...i noticed a number of FCD's that went unsold on the auction this time. makes me wonder if prices have peaked. maybe popularity is declining... personally, i hope not because i bought some recently but i have mixed feelings cuz if the prices drop, i can buy more in the future

 

[AN0NYM0US]

Millions of dollars? I think your idea of worth is slightly inflated. It probably still sold for around a million per carat. I'm not familiar with this stone so I am guessing here without knowing about the color or cut quality. Could be less.

A similarly sized red, the Argyle Phoenix sold this year for 2 Million. It was 1.56ct, straight fancy red and said to be the largest red discovered at the rio tinto mine.

I would say 1-2 million for a carat and a half diamond reflects rarity and cost beyond the grasp of the majority.

ETA: I also feel that many stones are held to help inflate rarity. I'm sure if a mine was discovered yesterday that had thousands of carats of red diamonds we would never hear about it. They would be processed and vaulted somewhere slowly leaked into the market. I can recall a time not too long ago when GIA said they had, in their history only seen around 60 red diamonds. I swear it feels like I see 60 new red diamonds for sale every year now. There are a couple reason why this could happen (grading criteria changing, cut manipulation, new super secret red diamond mine etc...)Don't get me wrong though, they are not common, but they do seem less rare.

 

[AN0NYM0US]

Another thing you mentioned. Diamond prices do seem to have plateaued, most hard asset commodities have. Things like FCD's and precious metals do well in economic crisis, when people have lost faith in traditional means of investment, like stocks and real estate. Those areas of investing are doing better now and prices reflect this.

 

[ohlala]

Millions of dollars? I think your idea of worth is slightly inflated. It probably still sold for around a million per carat. I'm not familiar with this stone so I am guessing here without knowing about the color or cut quality. Could be less.

A similarly sized red, the Argyle Phoenix sold this year for 2 Million. It was 1.56ct, straight fancy red and said to be the largest red discovered at the rio tinto mine.

I would say 1-2 million for a carat and a half diamond reflects rarity and cost beyond the grasp of the majority.

ETA: I also feel that many stones are held to help inflate rarity. I'm sure if a mine was discovered yesterday that had thousands of carats of red diamonds we would never hear about it. They would be processed and vaulted somewhere slowly leaked into the market. I can recall a time not too long ago when GIA said they had, in their history only seen around 60 red diamonds. I swear it feels like I see 60 new red diamonds for sale every year now. There are a couple reason why this could happen (grading criteria changing, cut manipulation, new super secret red diamond mine etc...)Don't get me wrong though, they are not common, but they do seem less rare.

that's what i mean...they aren't really as rare as they would like use to believe cuz i've seen a number of reds and i've only been looking for half year now (when i signed up on pricescope). btw, i saw a GIA 6ct red too in the short half year i've been looking at FCDs. i think my idea is inflated because the prices on one of the popular websites lists a 0.76ct FR as ~750,000US$. that means it prices a FR as 987,000/ct...but the FPuR on auction is twice as big as the 0.76ct and from what i observe...the price of FR's is very likely to double as the size doubles. that is why i say i thought it would go for at least 2 million since it is twice the size and also is already set with a nice design...

 

[AN0NYM0US]

Rare is a relative term. Red diamonds are rare, some say the rarest. I believe they are in the top 3 with pure violet and orange. Just because it is rare though doesn't mean you shouldn't see them for sale. Picasso's are rare, but they do come up for auction. As I said earlier though I don't feel they (red diamonds) are as rare as they used to be.

I would like to hear more about that 6ct red you saw. I thought the Moussaieff Red was the largest natural red GIA has graded.

That website you are talking about tends to list their diamonds at the upper end, and I guess why not. They are the best known FCD vendor with a stellar reputation. I guess that is worth $$$ to some people. There is also a difference between asking for 1m/ct and getting 1m/ct.

Is there a link or information to the auction you attended? I'm more than curious to see the red diamond now.

 

[minousbijoux]

OP, would you mind providing the full details on the stone in question, including photos, if possible and the sale price? Its easier to follow when its not so abstract. Thanks.