Which gemstones are arguably most undervalued today?

[realtanu]

Am just curious to folks thoughts. Given the sapphire "boom".. its clear some stone can have "high" prices in certain periods. Which stones have "low" prices today?

 

[LD]

I don't know how to answer this because a gemstone is only worth what people will pay for it so if a gem is $100 per carat, how would you know if that was undervalued or not? You can't predict the market. Take Tanzanite as a good example of this - when it hit the market it was touted as being "rare" and would run out in 10 years time. 20 years on and it's still being mined/sold and the price per carat has gone down and then up again (possibly now only a little higher than 10 years ago).

If you want to know what gemstones would probably hold their value (assuming you accept there may be a risk if another find is suddenly flooding the market) that's a different question altogether. For example the well documented gemstones that are possibly increasing in value (or at least holding their own) - BUT only for good quality specimens which means you're paying a high price now - are ones that are rare and difficult to source.

Great Brazilian Paraiba Tourmaline is incredibly hard to find and when you do, the price is high. It's also a gem that's being collected in Asia and they are paying top Dollar so prices are being driven up. Alexandrite (again only good quality) is a stone that has seen a fairly high increase in price in the past few years. This is possibly because the supply is incredibly limited. To give you an example, I recently saw a 3ct stone very very very similar to one I own and the purchase price was 5 times more than I paid 5 years ago! Of course I wouldn't be able to sell it for that but it did make me stop and think about insurance premiums! A few years ago you could pick up a neon pink/red Mahenge Spinel fairly easily. Now it's much much much more difficult to find AND the price is far higher than when it came onto the market. The electric blue Luc Yen Spinels (again, only great specimens) I think will increase in price but these are quite high even now and I think are still being mined so any purchase of these has an element of risk in terms of price.

To give you another example, of a much better known gemstone, Emerald, this has not risen in price much in the past 8-10 years. Not as much as you would think considering it's a gem that's regarded as one of the top gemstones in the world! A valuation on an Emerald ring today is likely not to have risen much from the same valuation 5 years ago.

 

[velouriaL]

Is there really a sapphire *boom*? I hadn't heard this. I'd be very interested to learn more!

As I undersand it sapphires have always been considered one of the big guns in precious stones, and it seems like really high quality ones are and always have been expensive. Granted, it seems as though more people are going for colored stone e-rings than 20 years ago, and sapphires are probably the most appropriate and well-known stone for the job, but not sure this really constitutes a boom? Certainly any Kate/Diana craze will minimal and short-lived. Have prices for sapphires really gone up that much? I mean, could someone have made a bunch of money if they'd bought a sapphires years ago and sold them now? Seems like not to me... but I'd love to hear others take.

In general, though, gems don't make great investments, especially if you're not in the trade with a lot of knowledge to acquire good stuff and a solid network to sell it in.

 

[velouriaL]

Oh I just saw your other thread.
Yeah, no gem stone is a good investment. Period.

If you really want to stay ahead of inflation for a future present for your wife, just buy something you like. But how much is a safety deposit box for 20 years? You might even lose money paying for it...

After reading the other thread, I wouldn't say that there is a sapphire boom, just that they're a little high right now. Seems like more of an ordinary fluctuation.

 

[0-0-0]

High prices can always go higher and low prices can always go lower. IMO the problem with gemstones is that they don't really have any intrinsic value and prices are driven primarily by the market's perception of beauty and rarity. So it's really difficult to gauge whether prices are low. This is unlike a bar of metal or a barrel of oil with an intrinsic amount of economic utility or an asset with an intrinsic amount of cash flow.

 

[velouriaL]

So okay, to use LD's example to illustrate the point we're all making-- Emeralds have historically been consider a major precious gemstone. But, they haven't been gone up in price probably because they're brittle, not sparkly (more like glowy), have inclusions which aren't necessarily considered a fault (a "jardin"), and, in general, don't seem to fit with market preferences. You could buy and emerald and maybe, at some point, they will come back into style and the price will go up (albeit a little bit) or maybe the anti-emerald trend will persist longer than expected. No way to know. Nevertheless, you will pay retail and sell at trade-in. So you probably won't make money anyway...

 

[T L]

I wouldn't say undervalued, but I think chrysoberyl (the lemon line variety of gem) is a good buy because it's generally untreated, very durable and hard, and takes on a beautiful luster, and when well cut, sparkles like crazy. When someone is considering a yellow sapphire and they're on a budget, I often recommend chrysoberyl. I know a dealer who thinks they're way more beautiful than yellow sapphires in general, and he sells both kinds of stones.

 

[kenny]

FCDs are just entering the radar screen with celebrity sightings, but those are millions of bucks.

When working people discover they can afford FCDs that are small in certain hues demand may rise.

 

[0-0-0]

kenny, what are your thoughts on pricing for fancy intense yellow diamonds? Have prices changed much over the years? I just want to buy one while prices are relatively affordable.

 

[chrono]

Yellows are still affordable but have increased somewhat. Pinks have gone up a lot! I was looking to get another fancy intense pink but it's gone up a few thousand more than what I paid last year.

To the OP,
You are essentially gambling when trying to predict gemstone trends. By the time you spot it, it's usually too late to buy low. Sometimes mining runs dry so price increases. Sometimes a new and better strike is discovered elsewhere and price drops.

 

[0-0-0]

I would love to get a fancy intense/vivid pink too, but prices are way way way out of reach for the size I want.

 

[Lady_Disdain]

Yellows are still affordable but have increased somewhat. Pinks have gone up a lot! I was looking to get another fancy intense pink but it's gone up a few thousand more than what I paid last year.

To the OP,
You are essentially gambling when trying to predict gemstone trends. By the time you spot it, it's usually too late to buy low. Sometimes mining runs dry so price increases. Sometimes a new and better strike is discovered elsewhere and price drops.

Isn't that true of most investments? By the time people are commenting on housing, internet, stock market, gold, etc, it is usually already past the best time to buy.

 

[iLander]

I would go for pink diamonds, if it were me.

Yellow diamonds are much more common than pink, and celebrities are gravitating toward pink and bringing them to the public eye. If I had to choose among those, I would gravitate toward an Argyle pink, budget permitting. Argyles are even more scarce, and they are heavily documented, certified, inscribed, etc.

I, personally, like rubies for a second choice. An excellent, untreated ruby is rare. I wouldn't purchase without an AGL certificate stating no treatment. And it better knock my socks off with clarity, bright red (no orange, no purple, no pink) intensity, cut and size (at least 2 carat).

But if you look at Sotheby's past auctions, unset stones don't sell very well. I would get it set in a simple, classic, style ring, without pave on the band, so it is easily sizable. I would have it certified by the GIA. A ring would require a decent size stone, at least a carat, from a reliable source, leibish for example. Then I'd enjoy the ring, and hope that it appreciates in value over time.

If you really want to research gem and jewelry prices, past auction values are on the Sotheby's and Christies websites. You really have to see what level of magnificence is out there. But even signed Tiffany and Cartier pieces are often auctioned cheaply, compared to their original retail prices.

An excellent gem or diamond will probably keep pace with inflation, but none of them are rockets. And it takes a really long time for the accumulated value to appreciate past the retail markup.

 

[chrono]

I'd love an untreated pure red Burmese ruby of over 2 carats that gets top marks from AGL too but stones like that are going to be in the 6 figure range. Unlikely to happen unless I sell my house or win big time lottery.

 

[kenny]

kenny, what are your thoughts on pricing for fancy intense yellow diamonds? Have prices changed much over the years? I just want to buy one while prices are relatively affordable.

I'm sorry I can't help more since I don't track prices and I mostly pay attention to FCDs around a quarter carat.
I do remember reading a few places that yellows are the last affordable pretty hue and are good values, but you never know if the people writing these things have a conflict of interest.
I DO notice that Yellows at key weights like 1, 2, or 3 ct with VVS or IF clarity seem to fly off the shelves, sometimes several in one day.

Here is a list of the most recently-sold FCDs at Leibish.
I did not do a search for yellows or anything else; They just add any and all diamonds to this list as they sell.

9 of the most-recently sold 15 are high clarity larger yellows, and 7 of those 9 yellows are IF.
Today is not unusual; the SOLD list is often Yellow IF heavy.
Somebody knows something.

http://www.fancydiamonds.net/sold_diamonds

 

[0-0-0]

I see! Good call on keeping an eye on the recently sold list. The 2 ct IF was one of the ones I saw 2 weeks ago and was considering. I guess I can't wait too long before pulling the trigger.

 

[Barrett]

Gem silica, topaz in pink(natural) and purple, chrysoberyl.........

 

[cookies]

I wouldn't say undervalued, but I think chrysoberyl (the lemon line variety of gem) is a good buy because it's generally untreated, very durable and hard, and takes on a beautiful luster, and when well cut, sparkles like crazy. When someone is considering a yellow sapphire and they're on a budget, I often recommend chrysoberyl. I know a dealer who thinks they're way more beautiful than yellow sapphires in general, and he sells both kinds of stones.

I'd like to know the dealer's name, if you don't mind..

 

[Arkteia]

My feeling is, that most durable stones will either increase in value, or stay at the same level. Corundum, spinel, all varieties of chrysoberyl may rise in price and popularity even more. I do not know what will happen to less popular stones, such as jeremevite or taaffeite. Amethyst may stay popular - just my feeling, a hunch that I can not explain. I always wondered about jade, it is not so popular here, and good jade is very expensive, but I think it is worth buying, a beautiful stone!

 

[ChristineRose]

Jade is an interesting choice. Many Chinese jewelry traditions involve jade. People talk about how the rise of China will let the Chinese buy more engagement diamonds, but no one seems to consider the opposite--that more non-Chinese people will forgo diamonds for traditional Chinese gifts.

 

[LD]

FCDs? No I don't think these are a good "investment" or undervalued. They've been collected by people for years (it's not just a recent phenomenan). I've been collecting those for 20 years or so and they've got more expensive to buy but re-sale is not great (it's probably the same as for coloured stones). So in terms of your original question I would discount these because as I said in my earlier post only the very biggest/best colour/great clarity will hold their value and they are definitely out of most of our price ranges!