GeorgeStevens
Shiny_Rock
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2014
- Messages
- 134
Sorry I was away, but this was a discussion that's interesting and worth continuing. Let's have a few facts:
1. Diamonds are the most common gemstones in the world.
2. Natural diamonds have little intrinsic value outside of some cutting and abrasive uses, for which 65 million of the world's 128 million carats of annual production are used, at low prices. Similar to gold (which Buffet thinks is a terrible investment) and internet stocks in the '90s, gem-quality diamonds have value only because other people are willing to buy them.
3. Synthetics supply ~80% of the above-mentioned industrial market already, although these tend to be much smaller than gem-quality diamonds, and smaller synthetics are easier to grow.
4. The diamond market was effectively controlled by DeBeers until the early 1990s (90%+ market share), when the cartel was effectively broken by new supply from Canada, Australia, Russia, etc. People feared a flood of diamonds would crush prices. That didn't happen. DeBeers' slogan "A Diamond is Forever" (circa 1947) led to greatly increased demand. Hence price support has gone from being supply-constrained to demand-driven.
5. The diamond value chain is complicated, but three players control 60% of rough-diamond production and enjoy the highest margins in the jewelry industry at 16-20% - still that's not even $50 a mined carat. But price per carat of the same quality diamond (D/IF) is 17 times as high for a 5-ct stone vs. a 0.5-ct stone. So there's a tremendous amount of value in being able to produce large stones.
Now, some predictions:
6. From Bain's Global Diamond Report 2013:
In other words, absent new supply, price will rise.
7. Markets that are profitable (diamond mining and jewelry retail) tend to be most vulnerable to disruption.
8. The mass market will get over the stigma. They embraced heat-treated emeralds, cultured pearls, and off-the-peg suits. As long as it's close enough to the real thing, they're good with it. CZ isn't close enough, but I think synthetics are. By the way, the Chinese emerging middle class (who will be driving demand at the low-end) love fake stuff.
So, what do I make of this?
A. So much depends on the quality of the technology and the cost to produce a synthetic vs. mine it, particularly for larger stones (2-5 carats). Yes, we've heard the story for 50 years, but what is the insurmountable obstacle that should lead us to believe that it won't be possible to generate a 5-carat D IF with decent technology at a competitive price? This isn't calling upon mankind to violate the laws of physics, just produce a simple carbon crystal. The people expecting it least will be surprised the most when it happens.
B. As the price for natural stones rises, which it may well do in the 5-10 year horizon, synthetics will become relatively more attractive in terms of price even with existing technology and thus will take on a bigger portion of the market.
C. The price of high-quality mined stones will remain high so long as there are wealthy people who like them - just as the price of natural pearls and untreated sapphires from certain mines has remained high. But the mass market could become a lot cheaper, as has happened with pearls, if people decide a man-made diamond is just as good as one found in a river delta's mud.
1. Diamonds are the most common gemstones in the world.
2. Natural diamonds have little intrinsic value outside of some cutting and abrasive uses, for which 65 million of the world's 128 million carats of annual production are used, at low prices. Similar to gold (which Buffet thinks is a terrible investment) and internet stocks in the '90s, gem-quality diamonds have value only because other people are willing to buy them.
3. Synthetics supply ~80% of the above-mentioned industrial market already, although these tend to be much smaller than gem-quality diamonds, and smaller synthetics are easier to grow.
4. The diamond market was effectively controlled by DeBeers until the early 1990s (90%+ market share), when the cartel was effectively broken by new supply from Canada, Australia, Russia, etc. People feared a flood of diamonds would crush prices. That didn't happen. DeBeers' slogan "A Diamond is Forever" (circa 1947) led to greatly increased demand. Hence price support has gone from being supply-constrained to demand-driven.
5. The diamond value chain is complicated, but three players control 60% of rough-diamond production and enjoy the highest margins in the jewelry industry at 16-20% - still that's not even $50 a mined carat. But price per carat of the same quality diamond (D/IF) is 17 times as high for a 5-ct stone vs. a 0.5-ct stone. So there's a tremendous amount of value in being able to produce large stones.
Now, some predictions:
6. From Bain's Global Diamond Report 2013:
A balanced market over the next four years, with a growing gap between supply and demand longer-term. The rough-diamond market is expected to remain balanced from 2013 through 2017. From 2018 onward, as existing mines get depleted and no major new deposits come online, supply is expected to decline, falling behind expected demand growth that will be driven by China, India and the US. Over the next 10-year period, supply and demand are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.0% and 5.1%, respectively.
In other words, absent new supply, price will rise.
7. Markets that are profitable (diamond mining and jewelry retail) tend to be most vulnerable to disruption.
8. The mass market will get over the stigma. They embraced heat-treated emeralds, cultured pearls, and off-the-peg suits. As long as it's close enough to the real thing, they're good with it. CZ isn't close enough, but I think synthetics are. By the way, the Chinese emerging middle class (who will be driving demand at the low-end) love fake stuff.
So, what do I make of this?
A. So much depends on the quality of the technology and the cost to produce a synthetic vs. mine it, particularly for larger stones (2-5 carats). Yes, we've heard the story for 50 years, but what is the insurmountable obstacle that should lead us to believe that it won't be possible to generate a 5-carat D IF with decent technology at a competitive price? This isn't calling upon mankind to violate the laws of physics, just produce a simple carbon crystal. The people expecting it least will be surprised the most when it happens.
B. As the price for natural stones rises, which it may well do in the 5-10 year horizon, synthetics will become relatively more attractive in terms of price even with existing technology and thus will take on a bigger portion of the market.
C. The price of high-quality mined stones will remain high so long as there are wealthy people who like them - just as the price of natural pearls and untreated sapphires from certain mines has remained high. But the mass market could become a lot cheaper, as has happened with pearls, if people decide a man-made diamond is just as good as one found in a river delta's mud.