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are we already in a recession or heading towards one?

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The query was were we noticing specific signs in our areas that would be indicative of the economic issues at large and did we think we are in a recession. My answer was there are fewer signs where I live (not NONE) but I do know people are feeling pinched, some more than others. Fill your tank or grocery shop and you cannot help but see it. I also agree that the wealthiest Americans will be the last to feel it, if at all. That is a very small sector overall. And of course there are those who profit when others are struggling, sadly this is not a new concept. People are paying more at the pump and check out line. They are having to make sacrfices and tough choices daily. The subprime crisis is affecting student loans and college is in jeopardy for students. Gas prices affect transport companies and solo or small business operators are feeling it first and likely hardest.
The list and ripples are countless and likely will get worse.
I took note of a nasty tone and unfounded personal and disparaging remarks. I will not be demeaned or condescended to. I owe no explanations for how I spend my money. I answered DF''s question as it relates to what I experience. I cannot speak for people''s bank balances nor do I always know what others have forgone while money is tighter. I only know what I see here. I certainly do not think this is ondicative of the country in general. And I hope no one here is really in the throes of anything financially devasting.I hope something can be done quickly to alleviate this increasingly scary situation.
 
Caroline sweetie,

Please don''t bother answering these posts anymore. Believe me, they aren''t worth it. You don''t need to defend yourself to cyber people, who do not know you. Like MC said, some are just "closet bullies".


Sending you a big hug, my friend.


Linda
 
I would say heading towards one, if not in one already. I am really scared, tough times ahead. The for sale signs around here are a plenty, more so than normal and the houses just sit. I live where Diamondfan lives. I really think the comments made towards her were unfair, but whatev.....
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Linda you are so right! I just refuse to let someone malign me. Mehh. Some folks need to look inward before throwing out stuff.

Kaleigh, I have seen some homes for sale that sit. Many are vastly overpriced and or have flaws that are problematic. My neighbor''s home sold quickly but they wanted to move it quickly and they priced it right. I know some stores and restaurants are not doing well but for many reasons not just how much discretionary funds people have to play with, these are sites that have huge turnover even when things are better. I am sort of in a hope for the best prepare for the worst mode. I can only hope things reverse quickly but there are so many variables. Many bright people are trying to figure out a way to staunch the flow and are coming up empty.
 
Just to be clear...I wasn''t condoning anyone else''s tone or personal content, etc. Merely that I understand the ''gist'' of what was trying to be said...though it sadly got mired in another direction...
 
I am spending my money at the Mom and Pop stores, like the local hardware store, the local toy store. I''d hate to see them go under, but so many have gone out of business... But feel like evey little bit helps, or like to think so. I can only do what I can, these are very tough times.
 
Date: 6/26/2008 10:29:10 PM
Author: Harriet
Can Dancing Fire''s question even be answered on a micro level?
the housing crisis has hit our area very hard. many people had use up all their equity in the pass 2 yrs and now struggling to survive. people are struggling thus hitting the local businesses. we live in a poor city unlike those rich people back east in NYC.
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I''m sure it will hit me right after my daughter''s wedding next month, when I will be poor as hell.
But I will be a happy poor as hell woman!!

You know, it''s really interesting. At one time in my life, I went from making a fairly decent salary for the time, and then BAM, a ton of us were let go right before the holidays. I had to sell a lof of stuff to supplement my unemployment, but it also taught me again...because I had known it before...just how little I really needed to SURVIVE! I mean, don''t get me wrong, I love the amenities I am able to afford, and would love a life of luxury...ummm, like on Overboard...with the money and the hottie Kurt Russell...but I digress...

There was a certain sense of relief in knowing that I didn''t have to have all the "goodies" to survive, but that I was fortunate to have my health, my families health, and the ability to make a dollar stretch. It also brought a newfound respect for community and support of frends and neighbors and I really like that. If we have to go through a recession to get back some of the more important core values of our roots, then I welcome one. Even though I would prefer that everyone has access to the basic needs of survival...lets be honest, even when we aren''t in a recession, we as a human species have yet to design a system that prevents high child mortality, extreme poverty, death due to hunger....etc.

But to answer the questions, yes, we are heading into a recession. And that isn''t always a bad thing. It''a bit like going into a period of reflection...
 
Date: 6/26/2008 11:55:30 PM
Author: Kaleigh
I am spending my money at the Mom and Pop stores, like the local hardware store, the local toy store. I''d hate to see them go under, but so many have gone out of business... But feel like evey little bit helps, or like to think so. I can only do what I can, these are very tough times.


ditto!
I avoid Wal-Mart whenever I can.
 
I always try to avoid big box retailers if possible. We have a couple of nice local non chain stores for hardware ot toys or books and I like supporting them. I like to help them stay in the community and think they provide wonderful customer service.
 
Date: 6/27/2008 1:38:21 AM
Author: miraclesrule
I''m sure it will hit me right after my daughter''s wedding next month, when I will be poor as hell.

But I will be a happy poor as hell woman!!


You know, it''s really interesting. At one time in my life, I went from making a fairly decent salary for the time, and then BAM, a ton of us were let go right before the holidays. I had to sell a lof of stuff to supplement my unemployment, but it also taught me again...because I had known it before...just how little I really needed to SURVIVE! I mean, don''t get me wrong, I love the amenities I am able to afford, and would love a life of luxury...ummm, like on Overboard...with the money and the hottie Kurt Russell...but I digress...


There was a certain sense of relief in knowing that I didn''t have to have all the ''goodies'' to survive, but that I was fortunate to have my health, my families health, and the ability to make a dollar stretch. It also brought a newfound respect for community and support of frends and neighbors and I really like that. If we have to go through a recession to get back some of the more important core values of our roots, then I welcome one. Even though I would prefer that everyone has access to the basic needs of survival...lets be honest, even when we aren''t in a recession, we as a human species have yet to design a system that prevents high child mortality, extreme poverty, death due to hunger....etc.


But to answer the questions, yes, we are heading into a recession. And that isn''t always a bad thing. It''a bit like going into a period of reflection...

I like the way you''re looking at this Miracles! I know from going through personal hard times that I can do with less and I know that many of us can but my worry is for the people who are already making due with less.

There are large numbers of "working poor" in this country and that is the group that will be devastated by a recession. I read an article a few days ago about more and more people having to live in their cars in the LA area and that''s a sure sign that homelessness is on the rise, and worse yet shelters and food pantries are all running low b/c the people who usually have more money to make donations are having to cut back to buy gas and other necessities. I have a real heart for the homeless and volunteer at a shelter here once a month, and it really pulls my heartstrings to see more and more people needing help and having less to give them.
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So those of you who may not be hurting (and this includes me right now so this is for me too) please don''t forget about the ones who are and keep donating to your favorite charities. (okay I''ll get off the soap box now sorry!)
 
Date: 6/26/2008 10:29:10 PM
Author: Harriet
Can Dancing Fire''s question even be answered on a micro level?
I thought I did.
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All of our wonderful mom and pop stores closed because of Wal-Mart
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Linda
 
Date: 6/27/2008 12:58:07 PM
Author: Linda W
All of our wonderful mom and pop stores closed because of Wal-Mart
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Linda
I buy as little as possible at Wal-Mart. Can''t stand their total domination which sends the little shop owner into a tailspin. Hate them for what they did to Rubbermaid when they decided to undercut them on prices, forcing RM to sell to WM at below their own cost. That forced them to close plants in the US because they could not afford to keep their workers at those prices. Don''t like their treatment of employees and their lack of benefits because they keep the majority of employees below 32 hrs/wk. Especially despise them for forcing their way in to towns that have voted to keep them out! Yes, they''ve managed to fight the towns legally to gain access.

This country was founded on the backs of individuals not corporations. Let''s not stop shopping with the little guys. Let''s promote good food/merchandise at fair prices, not ''rock bottom, made in another country'' prices. And that goes for all the big box stores.
 
Ironically, I also refuse to buy from Starbucks because although they started out as a mom and pop coffee house, they''re like the coffee version of WalMart now. I always try to buy at the smaller stores as well.
 
Date: 6/27/2008 1:41:04 PM
Author: surfgirl
Ironically, I also refuse to buy from Starbucks because although they started out as a mom and pop coffee house, they''re like the coffee version of WalMart now. I always try to buy at the smaller stores as well.
As usual, you''re right. (We may not always agree politically, but your ethics are always ''spot on''.) I just need to wean myself off their unsweet black ice tea!

They promote themselves as being so ''ecologically correct'', but look at their packaging. Look at what they''re doing to those markets. And, for the love of Pete, why do they keep their store ACs set at a frostbitten 72 degrees? Hello? Global warming?
 
Date: 6/27/2008 1:32:51 PM
Author: HollyS
I buy as little as possible at Wal-Mart. Can't stand their total domination which sends the little shop owner into a tailspin. Hate them for what they did to Rubbermaid when they decided to undercut them on prices, forcing RM to sell to WM at below their own cost. That forced them to close plants in the US because they could not afford to keep their workers at those prices. Don't like their treatment of employees and their lack of benefits because they keep the majority of employees below 32 hrs/wk. Especially despise them for forcing their way in to towns that have voted to keep them out! Yes, they've managed to fight the towns legally to gain access.
Hah! They tried for force my aunt's sister, who works there, into quitting once she hit the two year mark and was eligible for a raise, promotion and benefits. She works in their liquor department and has been held up by gunpoint about 5 times. (I should mention here that she's not mentally all there-perhaps some kind of dementia?) The one she works at is also the most crime ridden one in Albuquerque and quite dangerous (and it's not even in the ghetto-it's actually the one thats about 3-4 miles away from our condo
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). Anyway, I don't know how she managed to do it, but she prevented them from firing her, and from forcing her to quit, and she's still working there. They tried to get rid of her about 3 years ago.

I avoid Wal-Mart like it's the plague.

Unfortunately, the only places here you can buy stuff like facial tissue, cleaning products, etc, are at big box stores.
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Date: 6/27/2008 12:58:07 PM
Author: Linda W
All of our wonderful mom and pop stores closed because of Wal-Mart
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Linda
on thee flip side....Wal-mart keeps many people employ.
 
Date: 6/27/2008 6:52:41 PM
Author: Dancing Fire


Date: 6/27/2008 12:58:07 PM
Author: Linda W
All of our wonderful mom and pop stores closed because of Wal-Mart
14.gif




Linda
on thee flip side....Wal-mart keeps many people employ.
Uh huh. At crappy wages, for no benefits. That will certainly help the economy overall, don''t you think? In the meantime, they have caused the relocation or demise of many businesses. Circuit City nearly went under, had to reorganize, close stores, etc. because in December 2006, WM decided it would sell their flat screen TVs below manufacturers cost just to get people in their doors. Electronic stores couldn''t compete; they didn''t have the groceries, toiletries, clothing, etc. to make up for the loss in profit on TVs like WM could. Circuit City may be a big box store too, but that was just underhanded and dirty of Wal-Mart. And they knew it. The Wall Street Journal called them every ugly name they could legally print.
 
Date: 6/27/2008 6:52:41 PM
Author: Dancing Fire
Date: 6/27/2008 12:58:07 PM

Author: Linda W

All of our wonderful mom and pop stores closed because of Wal-Mart
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Linda
on thee flip side....Wal-mart keeps many people employ.


They certainly do keep people employed. Well over 1 million world wide. They also employ most of them on a part time basis so that they do not have to pay them benefits. Probably many of their employees got their retail experience running their own shops which were forced to close down because Wal Mart came to town and under cut all of their prices. So now instead of "living the American Dream" they are helping the Walton family to live theirs. It is corporate greed that knows no limits. Some one told me today that there is a new salon in their Wal mart that gives cheap manicures and pedicures. Walk in health clinics? They tried to own banks so that they could deny small business loans. Just because you can, does that mean you should? Do they have to have their reach in absolutely everything? And if so, why are they monopolizing everything? The only reason I can think of is greed. When will it be enough?
 
In response to Dancing Fires question, I think we''re heading towards one. Asked my husband as he''s in finance but his answer went waaay over my head so can''t post it
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I''d like to play devils advocate for one minute though in regards to Walmart-

I understand that the wages are low and many employees are part time but they still provide jobs, thousands in fact that may be unemployed without them. and when a place such as walmart comes to a small town, it''s a great econmic boost to the local economy.
As far as undercutting the competition. We as americans are always looking for a bargain. Even here on PS we say over and over that stones on the internet are going to cost less than your local B&M store. Aren''t we promoting the same thing?
We also say over and over go lower in color/clarity to save some money, you probably won''t see a difference. I don''t believe we''re different than Wlamart in that sense. We''re also putting the mom and pop stores out of business.

The shoppers here and at walmart are no different. Many people in both places are getting bigger, better and things they normally wouldn''t be able to afford without these places. Now, i''m not a big advocate of huge chain stores -but i can certainly see how they have a place in our economy and, even some of the benefits they provide.
 
I just saw a documentary on Wal-mart. Very interesting stuff. Can''t remember the name off the top of my head. Its been a looong day. Has anyone else seen the JibJab Big Box Mart parody of Wal-mart? If you like political humor as I do (I like satire about both sides of the fence) you might enjoy it but no promises.
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female half 2Artists
 
Oh that Jib Jab Big Box is funny...not as funny as the Bush animation but funny nonetheless!
 
Date: 6/27/2008 11:04:54 AM
Author: KCCutie

Date: 6/27/2008 1:38:21 AM
Author: miraclesrule
I''m sure it will hit me right after my daughter''s wedding next month, when I will be poor as hell.

But I will be a happy poor as hell woman!!


You know, it''s really interesting. At one time in my life, I went from making a fairly decent salary for the time, and then BAM, a ton of us were let go right before the holidays. I had to sell a lof of stuff to supplement my unemployment, but it also taught me again...because I had known it before...just how little I really needed to SURVIVE! I mean, don''t get me wrong, I love the amenities I am able to afford, and would love a life of luxury...ummm, like on Overboard...with the money and the hottie Kurt Russell...but I digress...


There was a certain sense of relief in knowing that I didn''t have to have all the ''goodies'' to survive, but that I was fortunate to have my health, my families health, and the ability to make a dollar stretch. It also brought a newfound respect for community and support of frends and neighbors and I really like that. If we have to go through a recession to get back some of the more important core values of our roots, then I welcome one. Even though I would prefer that everyone has access to the basic needs of survival...lets be honest, even when we aren''t in a recession, we as a human species have yet to design a system that prevents high child mortality, extreme poverty, death due to hunger....etc.


But to answer the questions, yes, we are heading into a recession. And that isn''t always a bad thing. It''a bit like going into a period of reflection...

I like the way you''re looking at this Miracles! I know from going through personal hard times that I can do with less and I know that many of us can but my worry is for the people who are already making due with less.

There are large numbers of ''working poor'' in this country and that is the group that will be devastated by a recession. I read an article a few days ago about more and more people having to live in their cars in the LA area and that''s a sure sign that homelessness is on the rise, and worse yet shelters and food pantries are all running low b/c the people who usually have more money to make donations are having to cut back to buy gas and other necessities. I have a real heart for the homeless and volunteer at a shelter here once a month, and it really pulls my heartstrings to see more and more people needing help and having less to give them.
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So those of you who may not be hurting (and this includes me right now so this is for me too) please don''t forget about the ones who are and keep donating to your favorite charities. (okay I''ll get off the soap box now sorry!)
I also find this viewpoint comforting, or at least it makes the leaner times a little easier to deal with. I teach, so I''m not exactly rolling in moolah, and I''ve really been working on hard on developing wiser spending and saving habits. Now I still love my stuff and love STUFF in general, but I''ve found that now that I''ve pared down and stopped my mad dash to accumulate, I spend more time simply enjoying what I HAVE and no longer worry about acquiring more. Prior to this, I was really starting to feel owned by my possessions, and that is not a pleasant feeling.

What I notice here (and I''ve only been living in Houston for about a year, so I''m not an expert) is that the malls in suburbia are relatively quiet - I never have trouble finding a parking spot - but the Galleria in downtown Houston is still bustling. I spoke to a salesperson at the jewelry counter in Neiman Marcus, and she told me that they are seeing a larger than usual number of European shoppers.

Everything''s relative. I''m definitely the "poor relation" in my family, being a teacher. My parents warned me when I chose to major in education that it would not be a financially lucrative career, but I love it, and I make a comfortable living. Sometimes I have to find subtle ways to remind certain family members that I don''t have the same amount of disposable income as they do when they suggest I vacation with them or stuff like that. Their salaries beat mine, but nothing can compare to my vacation time! Sometimes I am so bad about rubbing that in! I love to send my little brother Monday morning texts in the summer time to let him know it''s 11 am and I''m still in my pj''s when I know he''s in budget meetings up to his ears!

I have a few teacher friends who have young families, and they are hurting. I complain about what it costs me to buy groceries or eat out, and I''m just one person! I can''t imagine how tough it is for families in these times.
 
Date: 6/27/2008 1:10:49 AM
Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 6/26/2008 10:29:10 PM
Author: Harriet
Can Dancing Fire''s question even be answered on a micro level?
the housing crisis has hit our area very hard. many people had use up all their equity in the pass 2 yrs and now struggling to survive. people are struggling thus hitting the local businesses. we live in a poor city unlike those rich people back east in NYC.
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Which is where Wall Street is. I pass the Bear Stearns building frequently. The name is no more.
 
Date: 6/28/2008 6:35:17 PM
Author: Harriet
Date: 6/27/2008 1:10:49 AM

Author: Dancing Fire

Date: 6/26/2008 10:29:10 PM

Author: Harriet

Can Dancing Fire''s question even be answered on a micro level?
the housing crisis has hit our area very hard. many people had use up all their equity in the pass 2 yrs and now struggling to survive. people are struggling thus hitting the local businesses. we live in a poor city unlike those rich people back east in NYC.
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Which is where Wall Street is. I pass the Bear Stearns building frequently. The name is no more.
Harriet, I dont think the Bear Stearns thing is as much at issue as is the fact that people that net less that well over $150k dont seem able to really buy/live in NYC anymore. Where is the diversity? That''s what makes NYC the great place I grew up in. Now? There are fewer and fewer affordable - and by ''affordable'' I mean places less than a million and/or less than $3k/month to live in in any mediocre hood...It''s sad. NYC used to be a city where there were areas for the very wealthy old money folks, the new monied folks, the artists, etc. Now? You have to have ridiculous amounts of money to be able to afford the basics, let alone something nice, in NYC proper. Even in Park Slope it''s now pretty well out of reach for most folks. People keep getting pushed farther and farther out. I dont know where they go, actually. My relatives live in Jersey City now (used to have a teesy 1br apt. near Lincoln center but cant afford that anymore) and they''re paying like $2500 for a 2br/2ba duplex and to me that''s crazy but there it''s cheap. And at the edge of JC, you can see the gentrification and it''s pushing farther and farther towards to industrial areas of JC so where are all those lower income folks going to go? It''s a mystery to me...
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Date: 6/27/2008 7:56:43 PM
Author: elle_chris
I''d like to play devils advocate for one minute though in regards to Walmart-

I understand that the wages are low and many employees are part time but they still provide jobs, thousands in fact that may be unemployed without them. and when a place such as walmart comes to a small town, it''s a great econmic boost to the local economy.
As far as undercutting the competition. We as americans are always looking for a bargain. Even here on PS we say over and over that stones on the internet are going to cost less than your local B&M store. Aren''t we promoting the same thing?
We also say over and over go lower in color/clarity to save some money, you probably won''t see a difference. I don''t believe we''re different than Wlamart in that sense. We''re also putting the mom and pop stores out of business.

The shoppers here and at walmart are no different. Many people in both places are getting bigger, better and things they normally wouldn''t be able to afford without these places. Now, i''m not a big advocate of huge chain stores -but i can certainly see how they have a place in our economy and, even some of the benefits they provide.
You basically described capitalism. Profit profit profit.

If it weren''t for Target, and other smaller chains, Wal-Mart would have a monopoly.
 
Date: 6/28/2008 6:50:42 PM
Author: surfgirl

Harriet, I dont think the Bear Stearns thing is as much at issue as is the fact that people that net less that well over $150k dont seem able to really buy/live in NYC anymore. Where is the diversity? That''s what makes NYC the great place I grew up in. Now? There are fewer and fewer affordable - and by ''affordable'' I mean places less than a million and/or less than $3k/month to live in in any mediocre hood...It''s sad. NYC used to be a city where there were areas for the very wealthy old money folks, the new monied folks, the artists, etc. Now? You have to have ridiculous amounts of money to be able to afford the basics, let alone something nice, in NYC proper. Even in Park Slope it''s now pretty well out of reach for most folks. People keep getting pushed farther and farther out. I dont know where they go, actually. My relatives live in Jersey City now (used to have a teesy 1br apt. near Lincoln center but cant afford that anymore) and they''re paying like $2500 for a 2br/2ba duplex and to me that''s crazy but there it''s cheap. And at the edge of JC, you can see the gentrification and it''s pushing farther and farther towards to industrial areas of JC so where are all those lower income folks going to go? It''s a mystery to me...
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Hi SG,

I was addressing Dancing Fire''s assertion/joke (one can never tell with him
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) that New Yorkers are immune from the recession by reporting what I''m seeing on Wall Street. I''m with you on the over-gentrification. I have colleagues commuting from Pennsylvania. I''m not up-to-date on the zoning laws, but let''s hope they help somewhat.

P.S. I would have loved to see the New York of your childhood.
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Harriet, how long or since when have you lived in NYC? I ask because the NYC of my childhood was indeed fanfreakingtastic! It really was amazing. I think somewhere right after college it started getting insane and hasn't stopped since. I lived briefly on Horatio Street, way before it was gentrified, dodging pig carcases flying around the meat warehouses on my way to the subway in the morning. Most of the fabulous little Italian espresso cafes of my youth and college days in the Village are gone now, sadly, and craptastic no-name restaurants are in their places. Sure there are funky areas, but even those are priced out of this world. Even when I was in college, you could get a cool place in the East Village for less than $1000/month, or even a loft with a few people. Now? No way. The essence that made NYC New York City, is becoming less and less, though I will always love the city as my home base. Back in the day, when you went to see a show on Bdway or off Bdway, you dressed up, made a day/evening out of it. Last time I saw a show, fat tourists from Des Moines, dressed in shorts and Lion King T shirts with socks and sandals/sneakers took up most of the theatre. Times Square used to have character. Now? It's like a big outdoor mall in anywhere, USA. No flavor at all. I could go on, but I wont. I just am thankful when my fav restaurants are still there. I just a couple weeks ago was there and realized that Second Avenue Deli is gone and it's now a Citibank branch. WTF?!? That was a NYC institution! Gone. It's a damn shame. Dont even get me started on what SoHo has become!

ETA: I think we know two different NYCs though...I'm definitely a downtown gal...
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SG,
So, what do you think of SoHo?
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I''ve been living here on and off since ''01. You''re right about us knowing two New Yorks. I''m an uptown girl.
 
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