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Are you worried about the Coronavirus?

Matata said:
I think it's prudent to stock up on 2 weeks worth of cold meds, soup, disinfectants and other necessities as one might do during cold/fu season and keep up to date on the news regarding impact in individual areas to determine if longer term planning is necessary. I'm also stocking up on the masks that we use during fire season.

My city as well as those to the north and south are retirement meccas. The majority of my neighbors are elderly with health issues. My hubs, who is a physician, said none of the local hospitals currently have enough ventilators to handle the anticipated numbers of ill people when the virus arrives here. Those anticipated numbers include a large portion of homeless folk.
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That’s pretty scary @Matata...
 
@nala @telephone89 you both make great points. I think I'm scared by the flu more, by the fact that I contracted the flu even though I get the flu shot every year, whereas the mortality rates for the virus are on the basis of having no vaccine.
 
I find the study of pathogens so interesting. There are actually video games/simulations about it. (this is going to sound really bad) but the intent is to wipe out the planet in the game. You need the correct mix of mortality, spreadability, incubation, medical resistance and symptoms. For example, something like the flu/corona starts with very mild symptoms, so you may ignore it and pass it along to others, and especially one with such a long incubation rate before you even show symptoms. Imagine something where you (ex) start bleeding from your eyeballs as soon as youre infected. You will seek medical attention much quicker thus giving it less time to spread, even if it almost kills on contact.
 
nala said:
Here is why I think it is mass hysteria and that media is fueling it rather than a general observation. The flu is killing more people than this virus has. Yes it’s a new virus. But look at the stats. More people have recovered than died. A lot more. So yes. The idea that a new virus that has not demonstrated to be as lethal as the flu, the idea that we all fear it and it’s affecting our economy and our travel plans and our immediate plans— that is the definition of mass hysteria. If all 80k people infected would have died— then yes— but a smaller percentage than the flu— I think it is partly bc the Media keeps fueling the panic that we are all still chatting about this online.
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Two points, the first someone else has already made, the % of people that have died is higher than the flu which brings me to the second point, that we don't have a vaccine developed for Corona yet.

I'm not specifically buying into the the media and panic, I keep looking at the stats of how quickly it is spreading and how well each country is and is not containing it and making my own assumptions based upon those numbers.

I had an aunt die not that long ago from the flu, if this has the potential to be worse than the flu then my assumptions are probably not unfounded based upon personal experience.
 
My take. It's bad but not to panic. Yes once it hits nearby communities, the advice may be to stay home, possibly for weeks. It WILL spread to the US. But at this time it seems communities are responding by having people be isolated (limiting its spread) and it's fatality rate while much higher than flu is still "relatively" low. I just hope it continues in being relatively low transmission and fatality rate. The only thing I worry about is, what if China is downplaying this threat? By numbers, spread, fatality rate? I would hope that they are being transparent. If not it may be worse than we know.
 
@nala - yesterday this international counter was at just over 20 000 cases, today it is at 80 000+ cases. I'm basing what I see occurring globally on that. The whole world faces flu season and this at the same time.... so combined I think it's going to be a terrible year for a lot of people.

www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Update (Live): 137,585,206 Cases and 2,964,028 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
It's my opinion that the true fatality rate comes from the closed cases. It looks like 8% to me, and not 3%. Nobody is going to die from the early stages of the disease, so you have to wait until those currently still "Active" have either recovered or died, to be able to declare a useful statistic.
1582838964533.png
 
arkieb1 said:
@nala - yesterday this international counter was at just over 20 000 cases, today it is at 80 000+ cases. I'm basing what I see occurring globally on that. The whole world faces flu season and this at the same time.... so combined I think it's going to be a terrible year for a lot of people.

www.worldometers.info

Coronavirus Update (Live): 137,585,206 Cases and 2,964,028 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
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I don’t think this is accurate. I have been watching this site since someone posted it in this thread and the number since then was way over 20k and that was a few days ago.
 
Is that the john Hopkins site? In the lower right corner there is a by-date chart. The virus was at 20k around Feb 3.
 
@telephone89 I love reading and watching outbreak/pandemic themed stuff. I especially liked Richard Preston's books on ebola (The Hot Zone) and bio weapons (Demon in the Freezer). Ebola is self limiting because it kills quickly, so it can't spread that fast. COVID19 is more insidious in that it has a possibly very long incubation period and some people will carry it while being asymptomatic. I think we'll see a large number of cases in North America. It's not something that's going to go away. We may have to contend with it plus the flu for years to come.

In North America at this time, no one flying in is being tested for anything. It's definitely a global issue now.
 
I just went and got my first shingles shot to be sure I got one in. You’re supposed to get them(series of 2) when you turn 50. I’ve got a bunch of doctor check ups coming up to make sure I’m healthy. (Coincidence but I kinds of like the reassurance that I may not have any pressing health issues)
 
Uh now I'm just worrying about becoming poor, jeez Louise what a few days.. It will only get worse if coronavirus get's worse. I wish Trump would do something.
 
whitewave said:
I just went and got my first shingles shot to be sure I got one in. You’re supposed to get them(series of 2) when you turn 50. I’ve got a bunch of doctor check ups coming up to make sure I’m healthy. (Coincidence but I kinds of like the reassurance that I may not have any pressing health issues)
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I bumped the thread about the shingles vaccine so that you could add your experience to it, whitewave. I am in Virginia now. I just saw one of my doctors, who is here, where I used to live. As I drove down from Connecticut all I heard on the radio were stories about the upcoming Coronavirus. I did think about how I had gotten the shingles vaccine and the senior dose 'flu shot. The fewer things I can get to complicate Coronavirus, the better.

The doctor I saw (Harvard Med School) is originally from Iran. His parents are still there. We discussed why the health system is failing to treat Coronavirus well there despite Iran's obvious ability to excel in scientific arenas (witness the nuclear program). It is very sad for the people of that country.
 
AGBF said:
I bumped the thread about the shingles vaccine so that you could add your experience to it, whitewave. I am in Virginia now. I just saw one of my doctors, who is here, where I used to live. As I drove down from Connecticut all I heard on the radio were stories about the upcoming Coronavirus. I did think about how I had gotten the shingles vaccine and the senior dose 'flu shot. The fewer things I can get to complicate Coronavirus, the better.

The doctor I saw (Harvard Med School) is originally from Iran. His parents are still there. We discussed why the health system is failing to treat Coronavirus well there despite Iran's obvious ability to excel in scientific arenas (witness the nuclear program). It is very sad for the people of that country.
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Thank you, I’ll go look.
 
whitewave said:
I just went and got my first shingles shot to be sure I got one in. You’re supposed to get them(series of 2) when you turn 50. I’ve got a bunch of doctor check ups coming up to make sure I’m healthy. (Coincidence but I kinds of like the reassurance that I may not have any pressing health issues)
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I got my 2nd shingrix shot this morning. My arm is getting a tad sore. Last time I had a swelling that looked exactly like the profile of a golden retriever. LOL. In another month I'll get the pneumonia shot. My pharmacist had been nagging me about the pneumonia and shingrix vaccines for a couple years and my hubs started nagging me about pneumonia last month. So I decided to shut everyone up and get the darn vaccines. And I had my first colonoscopy earlier this month. It's a relief to know there are no pressing health issues so good on you for getting stuff done. Peace of mind is priceless.
 
partgypsy said:
The only thing I worry about is, what if China is downplaying this threat? By numbers, spread, fatality rate? I would hope that they are being transparent. If not it may be worse than we know.
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Of course they are. Never trust any statistics coming out of China. Whatever #s they are reporting multiply that # by 10.
 
This is also another situation where public health = personal health. Countries that acted quickly to identify and quaraintine people did well in limiting spread. Other countries that had a delayed and less serious response, hit harder (Italy). I really wish we had a scientist, doctor, infectious disease specialist at the helm of our countries response (not Pence). We can and should do better!
 
I read tonight that a small % of patients are now retesting as positive again weeks after they tested negative. There is much to understand about this virus. The reality is no one has a built up an immunity to it so that alone, is scary. Mix that with the consequences to healthcare, business, education and well, yeah, its time to start monitoring for sure.

Someone suggested stocking up on water, non perishables and OTC meds. I think that is sound advice. There is only so much we will be able to control if this becomes a pandemic... and the likelihood of that happening seems to be increasing by the day. I still have faith that it can be controlled.
 
voce said:
It's my opinion that the true fatality rate comes from the closed cases. It looks like 8% to me, and not 3%. Nobody is going to die from the early stages of the disease, so you have to wait until those currently still "Active" have either recovered or died, to be able to declare a useful statistic.
1582838964533.png
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I am not sure speculating about the death rate will do much.

It appears that 20 % of people get severely ill -- I think they more or less need the fluid removed from their lungs. If they do not recieve this level of care 80% die. Unfortunately the number of machines, and intensive care beds in most hospitals is quite low -- nothing like the number they'll need if there is a pandemic.

So the death rate untreated (or treated by an overwhelmed hospital system) is 17%. But your prognosis is much better if there is a good health care system and your govenrment manages to keep it under control so the number of new cases each day does not grow exponentially (otherwise expected doubling time is unfortunately quite low).

Much of the statistics you are looking at come from wuhan -- where sadly it went out of control and they did not have resources to care for everyone. So those numbers are being skewed by the contribution from the deaths in wuhan.

You'll be much better off than that -- as long as it stays under control in your area.

While this sounds scary -- please remember many places have already gotten it under control.

Excellent examples of this include Shanghai and Beijing. It is already at an amazingly low infection rate there. They did a stellar job.

My mother in law is there, and actually I have been talking to some of my husband's employees who are trapped in wuhan area and under similar conditions. No one goes out, except 1 family member every 2 days to get food. The traffic lights are all set to red (at least arround wuhan they are) and the streets are empty. But people are safe. It really is containable -- but people do have to cooperate to contain it.
 
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Government recommendation for at home quarantine changed. So Dh had to quarantine two employees yesterday.

AFTER they went to work two days.

Because when they first arrived their departure areas were not considered hot spots (so you legally can't just tell them not to come to work , health insurance won't chip in etc etc ).
It's getting closer to me personally.
 
kipari said:
Government recommendation for at home quarantine changed. So Dh had to quarantine two employees yesterday.

AFTER they went to work two days.

Because when they first arrived their departure areas were not considered hot spots (so you legally can't just tell them not to come to work , health insurance won't chip in etc etc ).
It's getting closer to me personally.
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That's awful. Yesterday I heard about a person in California who had no known exposure to Coronavirus and who is now diagnosed with Coronavirus. That is worrisome.

www.cnn.com

The CDC has changed its criteria for testing patients for coronavirus after the first case of unknown origin was confirmed

For the first time, a US patient has contracted novel coronavirus with no clue as to where it came from. Now officials say more testing kits will be on the way.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

A patient in California who has cornonavirus didn't travel anywhere known to have the virus, the CDC announced Wednesday night. And the patient wasn't exposed to anyone known to be infected.
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I live in the US and am not the least bit concerned. I am concerned for others, the stock market, etc., but I am not concerned for me. I’m not downplaying this but the media is whipping people up about it, imho. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong and I’ll eat crow if so.

I have a work conference in a month with 8,000 people from all over the world (but mostly US). A plan to hit a theme park on my off day there, too. Some colleagues are nervous but I haven’t given it a second thought, really. Time will tell.
 
I’m very near the area where they are telling schools to prepare for an outbreak. UC Davis is twenty minutes away. Two colleges have been warned as well.

We have stocked our home since we are so close to what is happening. I’m prepared to hear that my son’s school will have to prepare for an outbreak, at which time, he won’t be attending because i won’t take that risk with him. Incidentally, he fell ill yesterday, which scared me to death. I brought him into the doctor and he had strep. There was a small child in the office that had the worst cough I’d ever seen. There wasn’t a second where the poor thing wasn’t coughing or vomiting. He coughed on me. I don’t know why that parent didn’t take that poor child to the ER.

I’m very nervous.

My oldest son is a university student. I’m nervous about him because he is a pretty severe asthmatic. His lungs aren’t currently clear and his soonest doctor appointment is Monday. He is the person that is on my radar most.

You can order dry foods, meds, and water on walmart grocery and just pick up the stuff...it makes things very easy. Of course, amazon is good too. They will deliver gallons of water in two hours.
 
For those considering stocking up on water especially if you're in the US...why?. Unless you have extremely bad tap water there should be no need. This is not a virus that affects the water supply, and, you can treat tap water pretty easily and cheaply for it to be drinkable.

Distilled water maybe, I can get that one, but regular drinking water should never be an issue.
 
Yes @missy , there have been numerous cases now, where they do not know where the patient got contaminated. And there are apparently cases where people seem to test positive a good time after they were completely clear of the virus. (Experts please correct me if this has proven wrong since).
I sure hope you'll be right @eapj , but it looks like it's spreading fast even in places with an overall more accessible health system than in the US...
 
Arcadian said:
For those considering stocking up on water especially if you're in the US...why?. Unless you have extremely bad tap water there should be no need. This is not a virus that affects the water supply, and, you can treat tap water pretty easily and cheaply for it to be drinkable.

Distilled water maybe, I can get that one, but regular drinking water should never be an issue.
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Because if someone in the water treatment plant gets covid-19, the entire plant may be shut down for awhile and nothing may be coming out of the taps. Sci-fi scenario maybe.

We've stocked up on water because we've been told to by our state government due to the chance of a massive earthquake hitting our area. We also have emergency blankets, candles, freeze-dried food, etc in the event it happens in my lifetime. The threat is serious enough that local and state government agencies have been adamant that residents are as prepared as possible. It doesn't take a lot of effort to ensure against unanticipated contingencies.
 
That if someone in a water department gets Covid-19 the entire plant may be shut down? That doesn't sound correct. This is a virus that is spread person to person, not through water or indirect contact. It doesn't hurt to stock up on water, but probably not be necessary. More important to stock up on food, medicines, bleach, basically anything you use regularly, so you don't have to go out to get it.
 
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