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- Sep 19, 2004
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Wednesday, May 03, 2006
The Cost of Dependence on Foreign Fossil Fuel
Max Boot: (and the site had a link to the LA times)
Of the top 14 oil exporters, only one is a well-established liberal democracy — Norway. Two others have recently made a transition to democracy — Mexico and Nigeria. Iraq is trying to follow in their footsteps. That''s it. Every other major oil exporter is a dictatorship — and the run-up in oil prices has been a tremendous boon to them.
My associate at the Council on Foreign Relations, Ian Cornwall, calculates that if oil averages $71 a barrel this year, 10 autocracies stand to make about $500 billion more than in 2003, when oil was at $27. This windfall helps to squelch liberal forces and entrench noxious dictators in such oil producers as Russia (which stands to make $115 billion more this year than in 2003) and Venezuela ($36 billion). Vladimir Putin and Hugo Chavez can buy off their publics with generous subsidies and ignore Western pressure while sabotaging democratic developments from Central America to Central Asia.
The "dictatorship dividend" also subsidizes Sudan''s ethnic cleansing (it stands to earn $4.7 billion more this year than in 2003), Iran''s development of nuclear weapons ($45 billion) and Saudi Arabia''s proselytization for Wahhabi fundamentalism ($149 billion). Even in such close American allies as Kuwait ($35 billion) and the United Arab Emirates ($36 billion), odds are that some of the extra lucre will find its way into the pockets of terrorists.
As I''ve repeated more times than I can count, we are running a similar risk of developing the same sort of relationship with nations that have large reserves of natural gas. Why do we need to repeat that mistake?
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Here is also some information on oil production so that people gain a better understanding of the issue:
Top Producers & Millions of barrels per day (2004 data):
1. Saudi Arabia 10.37
2. Russia 9.27
3. United States 8.69
4. Iran 4.09
5. Mexico 3.83
6. China 3.62
7. Norway 3.18
8. Canada 3.14
9. Venezuela 2.86
10. United Arab Emirates 2.76
11. Kuwait 2.51
12. Nigeria 2.51
13. United Kingdom 2.08
14. Iraq 2.03
Top Exporters & Millions of barrels per day (2004 data):
1. Saudi Arabia 8.73
2. Russia 6.67
3. Norway 2.91
4. Iran 2.55
5. Venezuela 2.36
6. United Arab Emirates 2.33
7. Kuwait 2.20
8. Nigeria 2.19
9. Mexico 1.80
10. Algeria 1.68
11. Iraq 1.48
12. Libya 1.34
13. Kazakhstan 1.06
14. Qatar 1.02
The Top Users... (2004)
1. United States 20.5
2. China 6.5
3. Japan 5.4
4. Germany 2.6
5. Russia 2.6
6. India 2.3
7. Canada 2.3
8. Brazil 2.2
9. South Korea 2.1
10. France 2.0
11. Mexico 2.0
And finally - the countries who have created the demand for crude oil and who have created the high prices:
The Top Inporters (2004) (who cares how much you use if you self produce or export it...)
1. United States 11.8
2. Japan 5.3
3. China 2.9
4. Germany 2.5
5. South Korea 2.1
6. France 2.0
7. Italy 1.7
8. Spain 1.6
9. India 1.5
10.Taiwan 1.0
A final note: 45% of all oil usage in the US is for gasoline... Of the oil importing countries the US has the worst auto gas milage in the world (by far).
Note also that China several years ago imported almost nothing, and in 2005 imported a lot more - and is importing a lot more again in 2006.
Overall: Something to think about.
Perry
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