Violent Weather - 2024 Edition

[Arcadian]

we got a direction y'all


Still not named.

But I want y'all to see this crazy model...its weird!

The GFS has done some crazy gymnastic loopdeloop stuff, crossing over to the Atlantic and exiting around Georgia and South Carolina, but being pushed back inland by the Bermuda High and coming back in about Jacksonville/St.Augustine area before being picked up by the high to go out again.

Basically this is what they're saying the currents will do as storms don't steer themselves.

The entire peninsula is getting rain from this system starting this weekend and into next week and it will be some decently heavy rains especially along South Florida , The Keys and west coast.

West coast, get ready, its gonna be big rains. Both models are showing Big Bend area as ground zero.

Any storm is unpredictable, but I'm hoping it don't do this.

The Euro takes a more measured approach starting on the west side of the state as well, exiting to the right into the atlantic and not using the Uno reverse card.

 

[OboeGal]

we got a direction y'all


Still not named.

But I want y'all to see this crazy model...its weird!

The GFS has done some crazy gymnastic loopdeloop stuff, crossing over to the Atlantic and exiting around Georgia and South Carolina, but being pushed back inland by the Bermuda High and coming back in about Jacksonville/St.Augustine area before being picked up by the high to go out again.

Basically this is what they're saying the currents will do as storms don't steer themselves.

The entire peninsula is getting rain from this system starting this weekend and into next week and it will be some decently heavy rains especially along South Florida , The Keys and west coast.

West coast, get ready, its gonna be big rains. Both models are showing Big Bend area as ground zero.

Any storm is unpredictable, but I'm hoping it don't do this.

The Euro takes a more measured approach starting on the west side of the state as well, exiting to the right into the atlantic and not using the Uno reverse card.

That's CRAZY!!

 

[Arcadian]

It gets even crazier!

Georgia, North and South Carolina, Virginia and DC areas are in the mix on this one depending on which model you're looking at.

Currently our little system is over Cuba. Still no name but its an invest so there's that at least. And at least there's model consensus as to where its going to start at.

This is the storm thats dumbfounding a lot of weather professionals. And its still crossing over Florida to the Atlantic but major models are having a difference of opinion as to what happens after it crosses. One model has it crossing as a sloppy mess and then forming in the Atlantic. The other has it forming close to Florida coast, then crossing and being a much stronger storm going up the coast.

In both cases, its saying there's a blocking Bermuda high and that means that the storm could sit and spin along the coast, or even just be dragged up the coast until it gets dragged out by another high.



54 counties in Florida are in the watch zone currently. We're getting some dribbles here in Palm Beach County and even though its sunny, its a weird looking sunny. Also yesterday was a hot that was indicative of a hurricane coming. (today its 88F before and feels like 103 before 10AM)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


1. A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of poorly
organized showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola,
the southeastern Bahamas, and Jamaica, as well as the adjacent
waters of the southwestern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. The wave
is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day and then
emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight or Saturday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of
Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. Tropical storm watches or
warnings could be required for portions of Florida later today.

Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash
flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend,
and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Beven

 

[Arcadian]

Tropical Depression 4 (we're getting bands from it right now)

Tropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion

There's some worry its going to be a bit more than a tropical storm. Its going to travel over some very warm water and the jet stream so, might strengthen before it comes on land.

When it gets to the Atlantic side its expected to be stronger. Nothing about this storm says falling apart over land.

 

[junebug17]

Thanks for the updates @Arcadian, I'm on the coast in SC right now so watching this closely!

 

[Arcadian]

Thanks for the updates @Arcadian, I'm on the coast in SC right now so watching this closely!

I posted a new thread as this storm has been named. We're getting feeder bands in south florida which is something else.

 

[Arcadian]

A new little something but by the looks of it modelwise, will not hit CONUS (those who may be Islands and Bermuda is gonna feel it though.

 

[Arcadian]

We may have a little something coming our way

 

[Arcadian]

Southeast Texas there's a little something there which will be a basic low key depression. Does looks like Louisiana will be getting a little out of this too as it gets dragged by the low in the middle of the country.

Mr Orange is pingponging right now. No model agreement.

Ignoring that last yellow x...lol

 

[Arcadian]

Hurricane Season Activated.

 

[Arcadian]

Texas and Louisiana needs to watch the red X If it gets a name I'll start a new thread. There's a lot of model agreement showing something is gonna form, there's small deviations as to where it will land though. GFS has been showing this for a while and its been spot on this year so its something to watch. Also GFS is showing something that could spin up in the NY/NJ and New England areas but that could change because of how far it is (September 18-20)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Corrected typo in the second disturbance paragraph.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance
is forecast to drift slowly northward during the next several days
while it interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves
generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas
through the middle of next week. Interests along the western Gulf of
Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure over the central tropical Atlantic has begun to show signs
of organization. Gradual additional development is possible, and a
tropical depression could form while the system meanders over the
central tropical Atlantic through Monday and then moves generally
westward at about 10 mph through the rest of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. The disturbance is expected to move very
little during the next few days until it potentially interacts with
a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa by early Monday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle or late portions of next week.
The system is expected to begin moving slowly westward by the end
of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster D. Zelinsky

 

[Lentibulariaceae]

Had a real, true thunderstorm roll through about a month ago. Not violent for most of the states, but about a once-in-a-decade storm for here! The barometric pressure change also got my fish to finally breed, so I think it’s a good thing.

 

[Arcadian]

Gordon isn't anything to worry about but that orange x is (Models have it developing)



The thought is that it won't be too strong, but will bring in a lot of rain and gusty winds to the area. From the models I've seen will move into SC and go out of NC /Virginia

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

1. Offshore the Southeastern U.S. Coast (AL95):
A non-tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal
boundary a couple of hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coast,
and is producing winds to gale force north of its center. The low
is forecast to move northwestward or northward over the warm waters
of the Gulf Stream toward the coasts of North Carolina and South
Carolina, and it could become a subtropical or tropical storm during
the next day or so if the associated front dissipates and showers
and thunderstorms become sufficiently organized. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the system.

Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, the low is
likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rains with the potential for
flash flooding, coastal flooding, and dangerous beach conditions to
portions of the U.S. Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast during the
next couple of days, and interests in these areas should monitor
the system's progress. Additional information can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Pasch

 

[Arcadian]

According to the models (if they're correct), Florida will be getting something very unpleasant in the next 10 days. nothing is official yet. I keep hoping its not gonna be true. (this is what I hate about hurricane season)

And while this is one model run, they're all showing something which means there's a high enough confidence of when not if, its a matter of where.