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Are you worried about the Coronavirus?

Does anyone know if parents are allowed in the hospital isolation area with their child if they get sick? How does that work? I mean, just keep them in and the parent is assumed infected? Or do they get protective gear to hopefully avoid getting sick (if they aren't already)?

(Not asking for anyone in particular. Just curious!)

It probably varies from hospital to hospital. Ours is allowing one parent.
 
Glad you’ve lived a life where you’re not regularly physically threatened or assaulted. Sad to say just today I had a very angry man get in my face about my race and gender. He tried to grab me. Luckily I was close to a shop and stepped in. Would he have actually hurt me? Maybe and maybe not. Chances are he was just trying to scare me. But assaults happen in my city all the time over dumb things. I wasn’t about to “be brave” about it though, it was scary. It’s happened to me countless times, it’s always scary. It’s ok if someone or something scares you, to mitigate your risk appropriately.

I agree people shouldn’t do bad things and bully each other or worse. Doesn’t mean they don’t and doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be aware and make informed decisions and be vigilant.

I’m so sorry this has happened. People are so emotionally erratic in times of stress and more so when steeped in their own hatred. You have made (and continue to make) such an outstanding contribution and i hope you will keep your chin up and keep going. Thanks for alll you do! Sorry that some people are jerks.
 
Glad you’ve lived a life where you’re not regularly physically threatened or assaulted. Sad to say just today I had a very angry man get in my face about my race and gender. He tried to grab me. Luckily I was close to a shop and stepped in. Would he have actually hurt me? Maybe and maybe not. Chances are he was just trying to scare me. But assaults happen in my city all the time over dumb things. I wasn’t about to “be brave” about it though, it was scary. It’s happened to me countless times, it’s always scary. It’s ok if someone or something scares you, to mitigate your risk appropriately.

I agree people shouldn’t do bad things and bully each other or worse. Doesn’t mean they don’t and doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be aware and make informed decisions and be vigilant.

So sorry to read this, MTG! HUGS! Glad you're ok.
 
Glad you’ve lived a life where you’re not regularly physically threatened or assaulted. Sad to say just today I had a very angry man get in my face about my race and gender. He tried to grab me. Luckily I was close to a shop and stepped in. Would he have actually hurt me? Maybe and maybe not. Chances are he was just trying to scare me. But assaults happen in my city all the time over dumb things. I wasn’t about to “be brave” about it though, it was scary. It’s happened to me countless times, it’s always scary. It’s ok if someone or something scares you, to mitigate your risk appropriately.

I agree people shouldn’t do bad things and bully each other or worse. Doesn’t mean they don’t and doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be aware and make informed decisions and be vigilant.

I’m sorry this happened to you and I’m glad you’re okay. I really hope you consider carrying pepper spray if you don’t already. I’ve been telling my parents to, and I have it in hand when I walk to the grocery store.
 
Curious if anyone has any insight on how Germany is being so successful. Is it just that more Germans are heeding the shelter-in-place and not overwhelming their healthcare system?

There was an article in the paper very recently saying Germany’s figures were likely to change significantly over the coming weeks. I read it but my brain has hit overload and I now can’t remember all the reasons stated, but I do definitely remember that Germany’s social structure was mentioned - the elderly tend to be more isolated from younger age groups than in other European societies, especially compared to Italy and Spain, and so less older people were initially affected. The article also mentioned a specific reason why large numbers of healthy, younger people had been infected, which was skewing their death rates down, but I can’t for the life of me remember what that reason was. Oh to be younger and retain information easily!

The Netherlands looks very odd - they’ve had thousands of cases in Holland and hundreds of deaths, a similar pattern to lots of European countries. The same for Norway. Those numbers look very odd?
 
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I was looking at the live data (but closed cases only) at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (March 25) and noted the following.

Some places have a much higher recovery rate than others:

Singapore 1.2% death 98.8% recovery
South Korea 3.3% death 96.7% recovery
China 4.3% death 95.7% recovery
Germany 5.5% death 94.5% recovery
Taiwan 6.5% death 93.5% recovery
Russia 7.3% death 92.7% recovery
Israel 7.9% death 92.1% recovery
Australia 8.5% death 91.5% recovery
Malaysia 9.1% death 90.9% recovery
Japan 11.6% death 88.4% recovery


Canada 16.3% death 83.7% recovery
Iran 17.8% death 82.2% recovery
United Kingdom 22.6% death 77.4% recovery
Belgium 24.6% death 75.4% recovery
France 25.4% death 74.6% recovery
United States 38.7% death 61.3% recovery
Spain 40.5% death 59.5% recovery
Italy 44.5% death 55.5% recovery


Switzerland 53.9% death 46.1% recovery
Portugal 66.2% 33.8% recovery
Turkey 69.4% death 30.6% recovery
Norway 70.0% death 30.0% recovery
Austria 77.5% death 22.5% recovery
Sweden 79.5% death 20.5% recovery
Brazil 96.7% death 3.3% recovery
Netherlands 99.2% death 0.8% recovery


I think there are a lot of factors at play here. Late diagnosis (such as in the US) surely leads to a higher death rate that should taper down over time as people get tested.

Another issue is that demographics is important. I think Japan is higher than South Korea because of more elderly people (higher average age), and the same may be true for Switzerland (where I guess people go to retire?) compared to Germany.

Even if in the US we cannot have the same kind of response China rolled out, we can try to learn from South Korea and Germany and Australia! I think in South Korea they were tracing and isolating people quite early. I hear Australia has developed a prototype vaccine that's so far been very successful. Curious if anyone has any insight on how Germany is being so successful. Is it just that more Germans are heeding the shelter-in-place and not overwhelming their healthcare system?

This website is very useful.

I kept wishing there were maps showing the exact location of each case, and had been looking for a website with that sort of information, but couldn’t find anything.
Was quite surprised to discover yesterday how close the virus was to us.
However, perhaps it wouldn’t make any difference in our day-to-day lives, and maybe if we didn’t see nearby cases we would unfortunately be slightly complacent.
 
There was an article in the paper very recently saying Germany’s figures were likely to change significantly over the coming weeks. I read it but my brain has hit overload and I now can’t remember all the reasons stated, but I do definitely remember that Germany’s social structure was mentioned - the elderly tend to be more isolated from younger age groups than in other European societies, especially compared to Italy and Spain, and so less older people were initially affected. The article also mentioned a specific reason why large numbers of healthy, younger people had been infected, which was skewing their death rates down, but I can’t for the life of me remember what that reason was. Oh to be younger and retain information easily!

The Netherlands looks very odd - they’ve had thousands of cases in Holland and hundreds of deaths, a similar pattern to lots of European countries. The same for Norway. Those numbers look very odd?

In Germany early on an infected couple attended a tradistional mardi gras ball and acted as a super spreader, infeting hundreds at that one event. Those were the early very healthy cases with good recovery rates. In Germany the doctor to patient ratio is rather good. As is the patient to nurse ratio. Health insurance is mandatory, so everyone is covered and you have free choice of doctor. So people have no restrictions to seek out help early. I guess that makes for good recovery rates in the beginning, when evryone is treated.

Later on the polpulation structure will kick us in our behind, I'm worried. Even the best system will be completely swamped at one point.


Italy has actually a great healthcare system. But it's just swamped. The Italian average age is even higher than in Germany.

Looking at the data I agree that the numbers are skewed, we won't know much until much later into he pandemic, as it seems many conutries are counting differently / have different standards for recovered patients.

Switzerland has me puzzled as well. They have excellent healthcare, albeit expensive as well... Population is , from what I know slightly younger than Germany ... (42, ... years in Switzerland opposed to 44, ... Germany) from the stats that I saw.

The Neherlands weren't big on isolation for longer than neighbouring countries... resulted in road blocks from the Belgian neighbours, because they confined ....
 
Thank you so much to everyone who has wished my family well. Although it's not a particularly nice experience, they're both recovering nicely, for which we're very grateful. I think it's really important to keep in mind, as we go through this, that the vast, vast majority of people infected will be absolutely fine, that the issue really is protecting those who are vulnerable to suffering more severe effects. That said, I hope as many of you as possible manage to avoid it.

As far as Germany goes, and I want to add a caveat that I can't vouch for the accuracy of this (don't want to spread fake news), but I've read that they're not doing post-mortem testing. So if someone dies of, say, pneumonia, they're not testing to see if it's Covid related, which might be keeping their numbers lower.

Stay safe everyone. MTG- I'm so sorry that happened to you. It's the very last thing anyone needs right now.
 
Thank you so much to everyone who has wished my family well. Although it's not a particularly nice experience, they're both recovering nicely, for which we're very grateful. I think it's really important to keep in mind, as we go through this, that the vast, vast majority of people infected will be absolutely fine, that the issue really is protecting those who are vulnerable to suffering more severe effects. That said, I hope as many of you as possible manage to avoid it.

As far as Germany goes, and I want to add a caveat that I can't vouch for the accuracy of this (don't want to spread fake news), but I've read that they're not doing post-mortem testing. So if someone dies of, say, pneumonia, they're not testing to see if it's Covid related, which might be keeping their numbers lower.

Stay safe everyone. MTG- I'm so sorry that happened to you. It's the very last thing anyone needs right now.

@jaaron thank you for updating us and for letting us know what is happening. I know sharing your (positive) experience gives many of us comfort. So happy your family is doing well under these circumstances. Stay safe and be well.
 
@kipari and @voce

Switzerland only tests if you need to be hospitalised. They asked everyone to assume their cough, fever, or aches were due to Covid and to self isolate unless medical assistance was necessary. So the high death rate is due to that. The relatively high overall number of deaths compared to country population is because the cantons of Ticino and Geneva see/saw tens of thousands of people moving from Italy to Switzerland, either directly or via France on a daily basis. Cross border salaried commuter workers alone account for 350"000 of the workforce in the country. I think our numbers will continue to climb. I feel as there are already two strains of covid 19 out there, that there are bound to be multiple strains each affecting a different 'group'. One of the healthiest people I've met (37 year old vegan marathon runner, grows his own vegetables, cycles 45 minutes to and from work), is the one who has been struggling the most with his breathing. Which is counter to the reports from China and Italy, where everyone had some form of co-morbidity. Even with his 2 weeks of low O2 levels, he has not gone to the hospital, therefore has NOT officially been diagnosed as having Covid, therefore is not part of the country statistics. His wife is an MD epidemiologist who has been monitoring him from home.
 
@kipari and @voce

Switzerland only tests if you need to be hospitalised.
...​

I feel as there are already two strains of covid 19 out there

Can you expand on your thoughts about these two strains?
 
I was looking at the live data (but closed cases only) at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (March 25) and noted the following.

Some places have a much higher recovery rate than others:

Singapore 1.2% death 98.8% recovery
South Korea 3.3% death 96.7% recovery
China 4.3% death 95.7% recovery
Germany 5.5% death 94.5% recovery
Taiwan 6.5% death 93.5% recovery
Russia 7.3% death 92.7% recovery
Israel 7.9% death 92.1% recovery
Australia 8.5% death 91.5% recovery
Malaysia 9.1% death 90.9% recovery
Japan 11.6% death 88.4% recovery


Canada 16.3% death 83.7% recovery
Iran 17.8% death 82.2% recovery
United Kingdom 22.6% death 77.4% recovery
Belgium 24.6% death 75.4% recovery
France 25.4% death 74.6% recovery
United States 38.7% death 61.3% recovery
Spain 40.5% death 59.5% recovery
Italy 44.5% death 55.5% recovery


Switzerland 53.9% death 46.1% recovery
Portugal 66.2% 33.8% recovery
Turkey 69.4% death 30.6% recovery
Norway 70.0% death 30.0% recovery
Austria 77.5% death 22.5% recovery
Sweden 79.5% death 20.5% recovery
Brazil 96.7% death 3.3% recovery
Netherlands 99.2% death 0.8% recovery


I think there are a lot of factors at play here. Late diagnosis (such as in the US) surely leads to a higher death rate that should taper down over time as people get tested.

Another issue is that demographics is important. I think Japan is higher than South Korea because of more elderly people (higher average age), and the same may be true for Switzerland (where I guess people go to retire?) compared to Germany.

Even if in the US we cannot have the same kind of response China rolled out, we can try to learn from South Korea and Germany and Australia! I think in South Korea they were tracing and isolating people quite early. I hear Australia has developed a prototype vaccine that's so far been very successful. Curious if anyone has any insight on how Germany is being so successful. Is it just that more Germans are heeding the shelter-in-place and not overwhelming their healthcare system?
We are not testing everyone who has the virus like the other countries who have a lower death rate. These numbers aren’t totally accurate. At this time, we are only testing the most severe.
 
Glad you’ve lived a life where you’re not regularly physically threatened or assaulted. Sad to say just today I had a very angry man get in my face about my race and gender. He tried to grab me. Luckily I was close to a shop and stepped in. Would he have actually hurt me? Maybe and maybe not. Chances are he was just trying to scare me. But assaults happen in my city all the time over dumb things. I wasn’t about to “be brave” about it though, it was scary. It’s happened to me countless times, it’s always scary. It’s ok if someone or something scares you, to mitigate your risk appropriately.

I agree people shouldn’t do bad things and bully each other or worse. Doesn’t mean they don’t and doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be aware and make informed decisions and be vigilant.

That's awful and despicable. I can't believe that happened and I'm so sorry. You are an awesome person and some people are just awful. I think I read in another thread that your partner got you mace and it sounds like that was a really good idea. Hugs to you and hang in there and major props for being a physician and helping people.
 
@kipari and @voce

Switzerland only tests if you need to be hospitalised. They asked everyone to assume their cough, fever, or aches were due to Covid and to self isolate unless medical assistance was necessary. So the high death rate is due to that. The relatively high overall number of deaths compared to country population is because the cantons of Ticino and Geneva see/saw tens of thousands of people moving from Italy to Switzerland, either directly or via France on a daily basis. Cross border salaried commuter workers alone account for 350"000 of the workforce in the country. I think our numbers will continue to climb. I feel as there are already two strains of covid 19 out there, that there are bound to be multiple strains each affecting a different 'group'. One of the healthiest people I've met (37 year old vegan marathon runner, grows his own vegetables, cycles 45 minutes to and from work), is the one who has been struggling the most with his breathing. Which is counter to the reports from China and Italy, where everyone had some form of co-morbidity. Even with his 2 weeks of low O2 levels, he has not gone to the hospital, therefore has NOT officially been diagnosed as having Covid, therefore is not part of the country statistics. His wife is an MD epidemiologist who has been monitoring him from home.

Thanks @737lizakg for your input. I hope your friend will be OK. He's so fortunate to be at home with his epidemiologist wife!

My MILs good friend has just had his 19 y/O admitted to hospital. Respiratory distress. No known underlying health issues


eTA: whole family has been self isolation since March 13 th!!!
They were super careful and even isolated the father (in my MILs one bedroom apartment across the street) so we know how serious they took it.
 
I was looking at the live data (but closed cases only) at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (March 25) and noted the following.

Some places have a much higher recovery rate than others:

Singapore 1.2% death 98.8% recovery
South Korea 3.3% death 96.7% recovery
China 4.3% death 95.7% recovery
Germany 5.5% death 94.5% recovery
Taiwan 6.5% death 93.5% recovery
Russia 7.3% death 92.7% recovery
Israel 7.9% death 92.1% recovery
Australia 8.5% death 91.5% recovery
Malaysia 9.1% death 90.9% recovery
Japan 11.6% death 88.4% recovery


Canada 16.3% death 83.7% recovery
Iran 17.8% death 82.2% recovery
United Kingdom 22.6% death 77.4% recovery
Belgium 24.6% death 75.4% recovery
France 25.4% death 74.6% recovery
United States 38.7% death 61.3% recovery
Spain 40.5% death 59.5% recovery
Italy 44.5% death 55.5% recovery


Switzerland 53.9% death 46.1% recovery
Portugal 66.2% 33.8% recovery
Turkey 69.4% death 30.6% recovery
Norway 70.0% death 30.0% recovery
Austria 77.5% death 22.5% recovery
Sweden 79.5% death 20.5% recovery
Brazil 96.7% death 3.3% recovery
Netherlands 99.2% death 0.8% recovery


I think there are a lot of factors at play here. Late diagnosis (such as in the US) surely leads to a higher death rate that should taper down over time as people get tested.

Another issue is that demographics is important. I think Japan is higher than South Korea because of more elderly people (higher average age), and the same may be true for Switzerland (where I guess people go to retire?) compared to Germany.

Even if in the US we cannot have the same kind of response China rolled out, we can try to learn from South Korea and Germany and Australia! I think in South Korea they were tracing and isolating people quite early. I hear Australia has developed a prototype vaccine that's so far been very successful. Curious if anyone has any insight on how Germany is being so successful. Is it just that more Germans are heeding the shelter-in-place and not overwhelming their healthcare system?

Hi,

I was poking around on the website you provided and I couldn’t find a webpage that provided these very high death rates. What I did find was this page that when you perform the calculation, the death rate for the United States is 1.5%. This is the number that is provided across a number of websites at this moment.

Are you looking at the data in a different way? If so, can you please help me to understand how you are looking at it. I would like to understand your numbers. Thank you.
 
Hi,

I was poking around on the website you provided and I couldn’t find a webpage that provided these very high death rates. What I did find was this page that when you perform the calculation, the death rate for the United States is 1.5%. This is the number that is provided across a number of websites at this moment.

Are you looking at the data in a different way? If so, can you please help me to understand how you are looking at it. I would like to understand your numbers. Thank you.

I'm looking at the closed cases, ones where the case has already resulted in a recovery or death. For the United States, this is calculated by (total cases - active cases) = closed cases. Closed cases is the same as the number of deaths plus the number of recoveries. Then the number of deaths divided by the closed cases.

For other countries, there is usually a graph if you click on the individual country names that tracks the recovery and death rate, which add up to 100% for closed cases, so I did not calculate everything.
 
I'm looking at the closed cases, ones where the case has already resulted in a recovery or death. For the United States, this is calculated by (total cases - active cases) = closed cases. Closed cases is the same as the number of deaths plus the number of recoveries. Then the number of deaths divided by the closed cases.

For other countries, there is usually a graph if you click on the individual country names that tracks the recovery and death rate, which add up to 100% for closed cases, so I did not calculate everything.

Thank you. =)2
 
I'm looking at the closed cases, ones where the case has already resulted in a recovery or death. For the United States, this is calculated by (total cases - active cases) = closed cases. Closed cases is the same as the number of deaths plus the number of recoveries. Then the number of deaths divided by the closed cases.

For other countries, there is usually a graph if you click on the individual country names that tracks the recovery and death rate, which add up to 100% for closed cases, so I did not calculate everything.

Why wouldn’t you count the people who actively have the disease? Wouldn’t your statistic be very misleading if you aren’t including ALL of the people who have coronavirus?
 
Thanks @737lizakg for your input. I hope your friend will be OK. He's so fortunate to be at home with his epidemiologist wife!

My MILs good friend has just had his 19 y/O admitted to hospital. Respiratory distress. No known underlying health issues


eTA: whole family has been self isolation since March 13 th!!!
They were super careful and even isolated the father (in my MILs one bedroom apartment across the street) so we know how serious they took it.

I have a friend who has been self isolating from the beginning because she is at risk due to age and an underlying health issue. Anyway she came down with Covid 19 ten days ago. Thank goodness she’s on the other side of it now and doing AOK. Just sharing because this virus is insidious.

I hope your MIL’s good friend’s family and their 19 year old is AOK ultimately. Sending ****dust****
 
Why wouldn’t you count the people who actively have the disease? Wouldn’t your statistic be very misleading if you aren’t including ALL of the people who have coronavirus?

I agree. I think while statistics are quite helpful generally right now I don’t think we have accurate numbers. It’s all guesswork til this 2019/2020 Covid 19 pandemic is over.
 
I have a friend who has been self isolating from the beginning because she is at risk due to age and an underlying health issue. Anyway she came down with Covid 19 ten days ago. Thank goodness she’s on the other side of it now and doing AOK. Just sharing because this virus is insidious.

I hope your MIL’s good friend’s family and their 19 year old is AOK ultimately. Sending ****dust****


Thank you for your well wishes, @missy ! Glad to hear your friend is OK!

Any dust is much appreciated....



Even if it's TMI, but as an info for everyone:

Both parents of the 19 y/o had diarrhea for two days ten days ago, but didn't think much of it.... It started out like that for the 19 y/o three days ago. They didn't think of Covid 19 , since the parents didn't have any other symptoms.... The son developed muscle pain, headache and THEN respiratory issues... That's when it clicked for them... this is truly a insidious little B!&%h of a virus
 
Thank you for your well wishes, @missy ! Glad to hear your friend is OK!

Any dust is much appreciated....



Even if it's TMI, but as an info for everyone:

Both parents of the 19 y/o had diarrhea for two days ten days ago, but didn't think much of it.... It started out like that for the 19 y/o three days ago. They didn't think of Covid 19 , since the parents didn't have any other symptoms.... The son developed muscle pain, headache and THEN respiratory issues... That's when it clicked for them... this is truly a insidious little B!&%h of a virus

My friend’s case presented with GI symptoms too. :(
 
Question. Since Covid 19 is airborne should we keep our windows closed?
 
Why wouldn’t you count the people who actively have the disease? Wouldn’t your statistic be very misleading if you aren’t including ALL of the people who have coronavirus?

Good questions here. I'm not including ALL of the people because the VAST MAJORITY of ALL of the people who have coronavirus are in the early stages where no one is YET dying. The closed case statistics have death rates dropping over time, whereas counting ALL the cases leads to death rates that can only rise as more people progress to later stages. Once all of this is over, the numbers will converge, but I'd rather take a more pessimistic initial view that drives me to do something than the overly optimistic view that assumes a too-low death rate, leaving people to feel that they're "fine".

Edit: for example, if you're accepting the crude death rate obtained by diving the total current number of 25,360 deaths by the total current number of cases (559,351 cases), you get a crude death rate of 4.5%. However, there is currently 405,210 active cases where the outcome hasn't been determined that may progress to more deaths among the 405,210 active cases. If you're accepting in your mind the rate of 4.5% as the TRUE death rate, then you're assuming that nobody else will die among the 405,210 currently infected.

My view, however, is that MANY among the 405,210 will die (it's just that the majority of patients haven't yet progressed to the later stages where people start dying), so that 4.5% is a GROSS UNDERESTIMATION of the TRUE death rate.

Another way of saying this is as long as the new infection rate exceeds the recovery rate, it's too early to draw a useful statistical inference from the total number of deaths divided by the total number of coronavirus cases, as the new cases will always skew the death rate too low.
 
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Thanks for all the well wishes and support. I’ve grown up in large cities my whole life and am sadly used to some level of street harassment based on my race/gender but it’s definitely been getting worse. I’m not walking to work anymore in the evenings.

My husband, who I love but who grew up very white upper middle class suburban and rather sheltered from these kinds of experiences on a personal level, is more horrified than I am and is actively seeing if he can apply for German citizenship so we can explore emigration as an option lol.

Also just got notified by work that we are now on a one N95 per person per lifetime policy. Sigh.
 
I have a friend who has been self isolating from the beginning because she is at risk due to age and an underlying health issue. Anyway she came down with Covid 19 ten days ago. Thank goodness she’s on the other side of it now and doing AOK. Just sharing because this virus is insidious.

I hope your MIL’s good friend’s family and their 19 year old is AOK ultimately. Sending ****dust****

That’s scary @missy I’m happy she is on the mend. Was she tested? I’m wondering if she went outside food shopping, etc..even for a short time. Did she order packages or food in?
 
Question. Since Covid 19 is airborne should we keep our windows closed?


It’s not so much airborne (the droplets from coughing/sneezing/spitting are too heavy to stay in the air for far) as it is potentially aerosolizing during certain medical procedures. Sort of like garden hose vs perfume mist.

I wouldn’t worry about open windows. Enjoy the fresh air :)
 
That’s scary @missy I’m happy she is on the mend. Was she tested? I’m wondering if she went outside food shopping, etc..even for a short time. Did she order packages or food in?

She’s been inside. She stocked up. She’s very smart. She’s done everything right. It’s a scary virus. Thank goodness she’s ok.
 
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