shape
carat
color
clarity

Hey, how 'bout that stock market?

In fairness- my experience is limited. I have an account that allows for easy purchase and sale of stocks. So it was easy for me to buy- and sell.
It does seem that investment counselors don’t make money when people divest.
My advice remains. Sell now. You can always buy back if the market recovers.

For almost anything relevant to this forum, you know a hundred times more than I know. However, if I posted this, you would not let it go unchallenged: "Diamond is harder than steel so striking a diamond with a hammer is a good way to know if it's real." So although I should just shut up, I will push back a little here. Plus, you're a landsman -- you should know this stuff. :cool2:

You imply that the recent dip proves that this is crazy-town and it's time to get out of the stock market. We are in crazy-town and it's scary -- and scarier by the day. But that does not mean there is wisdom in abandoning the US stock market. In truth, although the US stock market right now is down ~ 18% from its recent high in Feb of this year (and I am estimating this from a graph), it is right where it was exactly one year ago. And it was up 6% in the months after the election -- not because that was such good news but because everyone knew that corporate America would not need to worry about DEI, anti-trust, environmental regs, profiteering, class-action lawsuits, etc. So maybe we are "only" 10 - 12% off the pre-election (wobbly) baseline.

In contrast, I've lost half my money three separate times in the stock market over the many decades I've been investing. And I was too busy working and investing and quietly amassing cheap shares after the drop to notice or to bother shutting off the programmed semi-monthly investing in my workplace retirement accounts. It was the smartest thing I've ever done (well, third-smartest after spouse and kids.) And it always came roaring back. And every single time, the news was plastered with "this time it's really different!" I am not downplaying the horror that is our economic (and social) policy but I know I'd go broke trying to second-guess the fickle fiats on X.

Savings accounts and even money-markets paid almost zero interest between 2009 and mid-2022 (IIRC). That's a long time to have no investment return, and no person in their earning years should count on that strategy. Sure, maybe 10% of your wealth or a year's living expenses in savings or MMF if you're close to the edge (and I infer that most on this forum are not living too marginal an existence).

You don't need an advisor at all to invest (and I'm not telling you or anyone to do it now, but as I said above, I will be buying more stock in the coming days to weeks if things stabilize or if they worsen). Just buy a total US stock market ETF (like VTI) in any of the big brokerage accounts (Vanguard, Schwab, Fidelity) and set the divs and cap gains to reinvest and then ignore it. Forever.

Advisors are an unbelievable rip-off and almost no one needs them. And they create insanely complex portfolios to trick you into thinking this is hard when it isn't. Almost every thread on this forum has more nuance and sophistication than one needs to be in the top quarter -- if not decile -- of all investors.

And I agree that the phone apps that "gamify" investing to hook the zero-attention-span kids on day-trading are seductive. I don't use those at all. Neither do my investment-savvy young-adult kids. If I need to sell to re-balance, I make my decision the night before, put in my trade, and it executes the next morning at market open. (I'm usually too busy at work to do anything during actual "business hours.")

I would discourage you from scaring others away from long-term investing or from selling at the bottom and re-buying after a recovery. There is no better way to lock in your losses and fail to participate in market gains. Will the music stop some day for the US? Maybe, but I would not count us out just yet. We've been short-term leap-frogged by many countries in the past century -- Japan, China, etc.
 
Not matter how sure I was about investing my money, I'd NEVER give investment advice, even if asked.
I don't want the blame when investments go south.

People's risk tolerance varies tremendously, more-so than about almost anything ... of course after politics and religion.
 
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For almost anything relevant to this forum, you know a hundred times more than I know. However, if I posted this, you would not let it go unchallenged: "Diamond is harder than steel so striking a diamond with a hammer is a good way to know if it's real." So although I should just shut up, I will push back a little here. Plus, you're a landsman -- you should know this stuff. :cool2:

You imply that the recent dip proves that this is crazy-town and it's time to get out of the stock market. We are in crazy-town and it's scary -- and scarier by the day. But that does not mean there is wisdom in abandoning the US stock market. In truth, although the US stock market right now is down ~ 18% from its recent high in Feb of this year (and I am estimating this from a graph), it is right where it was exactly one year ago. And it was up 6% in the months after the election -- not because that was such good news but because everyone knew that corporate America would not need to worry about DEI, anti-trust, environmental regs, profiteering, class-action lawsuits, etc. So maybe we are "only" 10 - 12% off the pre-election (wobbly) baseline.

In contrast, I've lost half my money three separate times in the stock market over the many decades I've been investing. And I was too busy working and investing and quietly amassing cheap shares after the drop to notice or to bother shutting off the programmed semi-monthly investing in my workplace retirement accounts. It was the smartest thing I've ever done (well, third-smartest after spouse and kids.) And it always came roaring back. And every single time, the news was plastered with "this time it's really different!" I am not downplaying the horror that is our economic (and social) policy but I know I'd go broke trying to second-guess the fickle fiats on X.

Savings accounts and even money-markets paid almost zero interest between 2009 and mid-2022 (IIRC). That's a long time to have no investment return, and no person in their earning years should count on that strategy. Sure, maybe 10% of your wealth or a year's living expenses in savings or MMF if you're close to the edge (and I infer that most on this forum are not living too marginal an existence).

You don't need an advisor at all to invest (and I'm not telling you or anyone to do it now, but as I said above, I will be buying more stock in the coming days to weeks if things stabilize or if they worsen). Just buy a total US stock market ETF (like VTI) in any of the big brokerage accounts (Vanguard, Schwab, Fidelity) and set the divs and cap gains to reinvest and then ignore it. Forever.

Advisors are an unbelievable rip-off and almost no one needs them. And they create insanely complex portfolios to trick you into thinking this is hard when it isn't. Almost every thread on this forum has more nuance and sophistication than one needs to be in the top quarter -- if not decile -- of all investors.

And I agree that the phone apps that "gamify" investing to hook the zero-attention-span kids on day-trading are seductive. I don't use those at all. Neither do my investment-savvy young-adult kids. If I need to sell to re-balance, I make my decision the night before, put in my trade, and it executes the next morning at market open. (I'm usually too busy at work to do anything during actual "business hours.")

I would discourage you from scaring others away from long-term investing or from selling at the bottom and re-buying after a recovery. There is no better way to lock in your losses and fail to participate in market gains. Will the music stop some day for the US? Maybe, but I would not count us out just yet. We've been short-term leap-frogged by many countries in the past century -- Japan, China, etc.

100% in agreement with you Alex. And dismayed that some are giving strong "advice" when admitting they are clueless about stocks.
Once again, to anyone reading, do your due diligence and don't make rash decisions based on fear. And don't listen to someone who doesn't understand the market. We are all responsible for our own decisions and I urge you to make clear and calm decisions.
 
Advisors are an unbelievable rip-off and almost no one needs them. And they create insanely complex portfolios to trick you into thinking this is hard when it isn't.
I very much agree. When I read how “all the experts say”….. I discount the advice because it seems self serving.
Your overall strategy seems very sound based on your actions over time. If I’d have read your post years ago it might have made a difference for me.
Right now, I disagree.
Just my perspective. Based only on the past few years, and the relationship to right now.
To anyone reading- don’t take my words as “advice“. Clearly I’m no investment advisor:)
 
And bouncy bouncy !! I’m still very glad to be watching from the sidelines.

Another aspect: I read somewhere about how old folks ( if they are able) should spend on things. Live while you can.
If you always wanted that Harley Davidson ….. get that sucker!!!
Liquidity feels very nice:)

Bottom line - as I’ve said, I hope I’m 100% wrong and this is a short lived phase.
I’ll gladly eat crow
 
Hey, look at it on the bright side - the gold came down a bit! :D
 
Not matter how sure I was about investing my money, I'd NEVER give investment advice, even if asked.
I don't want the blame when investments go south.

People's risk tolerance varies tremendously, more-so than about almost anything ... of course after politics and religion.

I am not giving "investment advice." I'm not saying: "Buy X crappy stock at this strike price and sell the day before the Q3 earnings report!" I am saying buy the entire US stock market and then ignore it. I am just describing the time-tested, data-supported way to invest to maximize the likelihood of success. I did not make any of this up -- none of it is my opinion. And none of it is specific to current events or prevailing market forces -- it's an all-weather approach.

I'm a little floored by the number of folks on this thread who say they do not invest in the stock market. I assume there is a silent majority out there who do (?).

I don't think risk tolerance in investing varies all that much. So-called target-retirement date funds -- that receive maybe 2/3 of new money in employer plans and that are generally wonderful -- suggest that we are pretty similar within 5-year age buckets.

I know from experience that investment risk tolerance has no correlation with personal risk-taking. When I was young and fearless and invincible and drove too fast, I was devastated by a 5% drop in the value of my (nascent) IRA portfolio and foolishly rolled it all to MMF for a while (!). And now that I'm old and timid and have earthquake insurance and think twice before climbing a ladder and put on my seatbelt to move the car from one side of the driveway to the other, I can grit my teeth through a 50% market downturn. And this is why the "How risk-averse are you?" questionnaires that advisors like you to fill out -- presumably to reduce their liability -- are nearly worthless. Like Mike Tyson said, "Everyone has a plan 'til they get punched in the face." Everyone is bold until they start to lose money. If you do not have the temerity to not panic and to stay the course through a downturn, you should never invest in the stock market. The strategy is ridiculously simple; the discipline is unexpectedly hard.

No, I am not "sure" that my investment strategy will succeed for me within any given time frame (this year, this decade). I am confident that it is the best and most cost-effective strategy for maximizing risk-adjusted returns. I will never "100X" my portfolio but I won't go to zero, either. I can certainly 10X it over my investing lifetime without having to guess anything correctly and that's pretty amazing.

And, seriously, we give non-stop advice on how to spend money here. All of that is incredibly subjective and yet we have no trouble spouting off about what we love and hate about a gem or a jewelry design. And we have no trouble advising someone to ditch an abusive partner or a problematic relationship. I don't think the investing side of money is any more personal or off-limits than those things.

And to @Rockdiamond, there is no eating crow needed. The market will bounce back or the country will fail. I don't think the latter will happen. Remember Covid? That was grim. The financial crisis? That was grim, too. Each time, it's a fresh-sounding catastrophe -- that's what makes them market-movers. If we knew at the outset how they would end, the market wouldn't spook. If the world truly ends this time, my portfolio will not be high on my list of worries. And it's not gold that I'll need but lead.
 
I read about certain brand of electrical vehicles and its owner had lost billions in recent months, and I did chuckle a bit.

DK :evil2:
 
I read about certain brand of electrical vehicles and its owner had lost billions in recent months, and I did chuckle a bit.

DK :evil2:

Don't forget all the Tesla shareholders have experienced significant losses. Musk owns 12.8% of the company. We never owned a Tesla or Tesla stock because for one we are not fans of electric vehicles but that is a topic for another day. The point here is many other people lost here. Not just the billionaire. Interesting how so many are forgetting that. And likely liberal leaning since they were pro electric vehicles.
 
The market will bounce back or the country will fail. I don't think the latter will happen. Remember Covid? That was grim. The financial crisis? That was grim, too. Each time, it's a fresh-sounding catastrophe -- that's what makes them market-movers. If we knew at the outset how they would end, the market wouldn't spook. If the world truly ends this time, my portfolio will not be high on my list of worries. And it's not gold that I'll need but lead.

100% on point Alex.
 
The really sad thing my dear American friends is that everyone else in the world is banding together. The US may find its self all on its lonesome.
China has become more palatable than the US. And the US has become Chinas adversary. Not good.
I used to work as an Investment advisor so I understand economics. Now is certainly not the time to sell, you just crystallize your loss, but the return of an “up side” may be a long time coming. As for buying in now, again that involves a long term view so not for everyone.
Now is the time to reduce your debt and be conservative with your spending.
 
Remember Covid? That was grim. The financial crisis? That was grim, too. Each time, it's a fresh-sounding catastrophe -- that's what makes them market-movers.

Historically, your strategy has been time tested.
Things right now feel different.
If you plopped down right now with liquid funds to invest…. The US stock market seems a very bad investment. Today.
The ridiculous jump in Tesla shares this year… speculation. So the massive drop in the stock price likely affected day traders and speculators more than the average Joe.
Crystallizing losses really depends on when you started.
If you’d invested over the last five years you’re still in the black. Money market. Makes sense.
IMG_7991.png
 
Just a few facts for anyone who is interested


Between October 2007 and March 2009, the S&P 500 plunged by 57 per cent, the Dow declined by 54 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 56 per cent of its value

In March 2020 pandemic fears caused all three major indices to decline. Representing the largest single-day percentage drop for the Nasdaq (12.3 per cent), the second largest for the Dow (12.9 per cent), and the third largest for the S&P 500 (12.0 per cent).

The U.S. stock market got beat up again in 2022. The S&P 500 was down 20% in the first six months of the year. The worst half-year period in 50 years.

2025 here we go again

Of course there are key differences that is true. But give it time. Give it time
Uncertainty wreaks havoc and this is no exception

Nobody knows what stock prices will be tomorrow, next week or next month, but in 10, 20 years from now the U.S. economy will be much larger than it is today - and stock prices will be much higher. My thoughts
 
I am not giving "investment advice." I'm not saying: "Buy X crappy stock at this strike price and sell the day before the Q3 earnings report!" I am saying buy the entire US stock market and then ignore it. I am just describing the time-tested, data-supported way to invest to maximize the likelihood of success. I did not make any of this up -- none of it is my opinion. And none of it is specific to current events or prevailing market forces -- it's an all-weather approach.

I'm a little floored by the number of folks on this thread who say they do not invest in the stock market. I assume there is a silent majority out there who do (?).

I don't think risk tolerance in investing varies all that much. So-called target-retirement date funds -- that receive maybe 2/3 of new money in employer plans and that are generally wonderful -- suggest that we are pretty similar within 5-year age buckets.

I know from experience that investment risk tolerance has no correlation with personal risk-taking. When I was young and fearless and invincible and drove too fast, I was devastated by a 5% drop in the value of my (nascent) IRA portfolio and foolishly rolled it all to MMF for a while (!). And now that I'm old and timid and have earthquake insurance and think twice before climbing a ladder and put on my seatbelt to move the car from one side of the driveway to the other, I can grit my teeth through a 50% market downturn. And this is why the "How risk-averse are you?" questionnaires that advisors like you to fill out -- presumably to reduce their liability -- are nearly worthless. Like Mike Tyson said, "Everyone has a plan 'til they get punched in the face." Everyone is bold until they start to lose money. If you do not have the temerity to not panic and to stay the course through a downturn, you should never invest in the stock market. The strategy is ridiculously simple; the discipline is unexpectedly hard.

No, I am not "sure" that my investment strategy will succeed for me within any given time frame (this year, this decade). I am confident that it is the best and most cost-effective strategy for maximizing risk-adjusted returns. I will never "100X" my portfolio but I won't go to zero, either. I can certainly 10X it over my investing lifetime without having to guess anything correctly and that's pretty amazing.

And, seriously, we give non-stop advice on how to spend money here. All of that is incredibly subjective and yet we have no trouble spouting off about what we love and hate about a gem or a jewelry design. And we have no trouble advising someone to ditch an abusive partner or a problematic relationship. I don't think the investing side of money is any more personal or off-limits than those things.

And to @Rockdiamond, there is no eating crow needed. The market will bounce back or the country will fail. I don't think the latter will happen. Remember Covid? That was grim. The financial crisis? That was grim, too. Each time, it's a fresh-sounding catastrophe -- that's what makes them market-movers. If we knew at the outset how they would end, the market wouldn't spook. If the world truly ends this time, my portfolio will not be high on my list of worries. And it's not gold that I'll need but lead.

Completely off topic: @LilAlex , you are such a good writer! And everything you have to say is always intelligent, considered, kind. You're clearly a wonderful husband and father, with amazing taste in gemstones. Big fan--I wish I could be your friend in real life. And I bet your wife and children are wonderful too.
 
You don't need an advisor at all to invest (and I'm not telling you or anyone to do it now, but as I said above, I will be buying more stock in the coming days to weeks if things stabilize or if they worsen). Just buy a total US stock market ETF (like VTI) in any of the big brokerage accounts (Vanguard, Schwab, Fidelity) and set the divs and cap gains to reinvest and then ignore it. Forever.

Advisors are an unbelievable rip-off and almost no one needs them. And they create insanely complex portfolios to trick you into thinking this is hard when it isn't. Almost every thread on this forum has more nuance and sophistication than one needs to be in the top quarter -- if not decile -- of all investors.

I have seen you say this before and I am intrigued bc I do have an advisor - they were with my mom and then on to me; I have been tempted to ditch them bc the original person sold the biz and it's new people now. But I don't know anything in terms of buying and selling so I am wary...
 
Completely off topic: @LilAlex , you are such a good writer! And everything you have to say is always intelligent, considered, kind
100% agree.
If stability somehow makes a comeback ( unlikely) and I do decide to get back in to the stock market I would follow @LilAlex words ( not actual andvice:) and buy a fund like VTI.
But for now I’m a spectator
 
The stock market has a lot of emotional trading. The advice given by Buffett, et.al, about time in the market works, timing it does not, are all about stripping away the emotions of fear and greed from trading decisions. I don't enjoy the red on my Schwab accounts either, but I remember the Fidelity study and try to forget about my portfolio. https://www.businessinsider.com/forgetful-investors-performed-best-2014-9
 
Proving myself wrong....the market jumped today!! Good news for all who are in it......yay.....till tomorrow....
It's almost as if some people know what's going to happen before it does and then make their moves in advance.
Someone is making tons of bucks on these swings
 
Proving myself wrong....the market jumped today!! Good news for all who are in it......yay.....till tomorrow....
It's almost as if some people know what's going to happen before it does and then make their moves in advance.
Someone is making tons of bucks on these swings

Trump's 90 day pause on tariffs caused the market jump. It won't last. Trump bet the house and lost; he blinked; he's kissing butt and the White House is trying to sell it as a victory.
 
Trump's 90 day pause on tariffs caused the market jump. It won't last. Trump bet the house and lost; he blinked; he's kissing butt and the White House is trying to sell it as a victory.

Just Monday the 90 day delay was fake news. Wonder what changed.
 
Just Monday the 90 day delay was fake news. Wonder what changed.

What changed was his dropping poll numbers, bonds were tanking, China didn't back down, and his major investors started publicly yelling at him.
 
What changed was his dropping poll numbers, bonds were tanking, China didn't back down, and his major investors started publicly yelling at him.

I see that as a small win. At least it’s proven there’s something that can reign in this economical madness at least by a little. It’s more than we had yesterday.
 
The really sad thing my dear American friends is that everyone else in the world is banding together. The US may find its self all on its lonesome.
China has become more palatable than the US. And the US has become Chinas adversary. Not good.
I used to work as an Investment advisor so I understand economics. Now is certainly not the time to sell, you just crystallize your loss, but the return of an “up side” may be a long time coming. As for buying in now, again that involves a long term view so not for everyone.
Now is the time to reduce your debt and be conservative with your spending.

Yes, they're so tight that the EU has just warned China not to start dumping all their extra product on them and hurting the EU"s economy more than it is.
 
Trump's 90 day pause on tariffs caused the market jump. It won't last. Trump bet the house and lost; he blinked; he's kissing butt and the White House is trying to sell it as a victory.

I'd suggest we all remained tuned in to events. Also, people realize the stock market wouldn't be bouncing all over if they would remain invested, get outside and have a life. Loss in the market now is pretty much self-inflicted.
 
Just to be clear, as reported now (BBC breaking news), the 'baseline' 10% tariffs for most countries remain. The pause is only on the excess over 10%. China is the exception, hit with 125% (!). Some details are not clear.

So for most countries, the new tariffs, are 'only' 10%. Not paused, applicable now.
 
I'd suggest we all remained tuned in to events. Also, people realize the stock market wouldn't be bouncing all over if they would remain invested, get outside and have a life. Loss in the market now is pretty much self-inflicted.

As has been said before- I really appreciate your perspective and participation. If you look at what you wrote that we should all stay aware of ongoing events and policies. Most will agree on that front I suspect.
Going out and having a life does not preclude watching world events. People trade stocks while in the park from their phones nowadays:)
It’s all personal- when it comes to investing. Everyone’s position is different. No one size fits all.
For me, getting out of the market last month made sense. For others it made more sense to stay in. This thread has some amazing insights and information.
Today was a great day for the long term investors.
I’m happy for them.
I’m still feeling like there’s a lot of turbulence in the market ahead. I’m glad to be able to watch from the sidelines.
We will all probably agree the losses are self inflicted….. just not about which self we’re talking about.
 
Loss in the market now is pretty much self-inflicted.

Yes and no. Some people have mandatory distributions from retirement accounts and may need some stock sold to take those. I think many don’t keep large amounts of cash in those accounts but rather keep it invested until distributions. So I wouldn’t call it self inflicted since they are mandated.
 
The FAFO! It never ends.

You can't hedge against incompetence.


And the specter and speculation of insider trading reared it's head today.
Ain't that something.
 
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Yes and no. Some people have mandatory distributions from retirement accounts and may need some stock sold to take those. I think many don’t keep large amounts of cash in those accounts but rather keep it invested until distributions. So I wouldn’t call it self inflicted since they are mandated.

RMD's do not need to be withdrawn until December 31, 2025 and there were almost 3 months in 2025 to make RMD withdrawals if they were concerned about the tariffs.

There is plenty of time for the markets to bounce back. It always has and most responsible financial advisors would encourage people over the age of 65 to get out of the market. It is after all, a gambling situation and seniors need guaranteed savings insured by the FDIC.
 
As has been said before- I really appreciate your perspective and participation. If you look at what you wrote that we should all stay aware of ongoing events and policies. Most will agree on that front I suspect.
Going out and having a life does not preclude watching world events. People trade stocks while in the park from their phones nowadays:)
It’s all personal- when it comes to investing. Everyone’s position is different. No one size fits all.
For me, getting out of the market last month made sense. For others it made more sense to stay in. This thread has some amazing insights and information.
Today was a great day for the long term investors.
I’m happy for them.
I’m still feeling like there’s a lot of turbulence in the market ahead. I’m glad to be able to watch from the sidelines.
We will all probably agree the losses are self inflicted….. just not about which self we’re talking about.
It's good to hear you have put yourself in a position with your savings that makes you comfortable for now. I'm happy to see some rebound in the market today and I realize many inside traders can get an edge but that doesn't stop others from gaining also.

This current situation is a long time issue that no one wanted to address as we can see by past dialogs that were discovered. I get no joy from seeing anyone suffer financially, our family included, but I have faith we will instill a better system and reset which is needed now.
 
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