Hey, how 'bout that stock market?

[kenny]

A reality TV star delivers entertainment.

Sure glad that I'm not in the market.

 

[Calliecake]

It amazing the damage that can done in a couple of days.

 

[ShinyPink]

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuukkkkkkkkk

 

[Matata]

I don't understand how someone can be successful long term using bankruptcies to get and stay rich.

 

[Lookinagain]

I guess I figure I made it through the 2008-2009 recession, so I'm thinking I can make it through the one that is coming. Although I don't want it to last 4 more years......

 

[ItsMainelyYou]

10 trillion gone from the global market. Quick work.

I don't understand how someone can be successful long term using bankruptcies to get and stay rich.

Because they are subsidized by our gov't. Privatize the profit and Socialize the losses.

 

[lala646]

DH is a public employee, and will be retiring within the next 5 years with a pension. I was hoping to be able to retire with him, by or before age 55. Depending on how these next few years go, that may no longer be an option.

 

[Avondale]

I guess I figure I made it through the 2008-2009 recession, so I'm thinking I can make it through the one that is coming. Although I don't want it to last 4 more years......

The danger is in it lasting a lot longer than that.

The current trade war will affect the entire world, undoubtedly. But while the US seems by all accounts to be aiming at isolationism, the rest of the world is likely to keep its open trade policies among themselves. Other countries will bounce back somewhat quickly, but the US, not so much, not if the current course is held. And I don’t even want to start thinking of the consequences if the USD’s position as a global reserve currency is compromised as a result of all this. It would be disastrous for the country.

 

[MissGotRocks]

As several economists have said, most crashes had a reason that would eventually resolve. This was intentionally done and will not resolve quickly or easily. So terribly sad for so many, but isn’t madness always that way?

 

[Lookinagain]

The danger is in it lasting a lot longer than that.

The current trade war will affect the entire world, undoubtedly. But while the US seems by all accounts to be aiming at isolationism, the rest of the world is likely to keep its open trade policies among themselves. Other countries will bounce back somewhat quickly, but the US, not so much, not if the current course is held. And I don’t even want to start thinking of the consequences if the USD’s position as a global reserve currency is compromised as a result of all this. It would be disastrous for the country.

Well, maybe Congress will act to limit his using emergency powers to impose these tariffs. Kind of doubtful that they will go against him, but there is some movement that way.

 

[Mreader]

To add to amateur hour, it’s very possible AI was used to come up with the tariff formula. From an article from Futurism:

“As observers quickly noticed, chatbots like OpenAI's ChatGPT were prone to duplicating that calculation, suggesting that lethargic administration officials might have turned to the tech to devise the plan.

"What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even playing fields when it comes to trade deficit. Set a minimum of ten percent," crypto trader Jordan
"Cobie" Fish asked ChatGPT.
The AI tool happily obliged, coming up with a strikingly similar formulation, dividing the trade deficit by total imports to calculate the tariff rate.”

 

[Bonfire]

It really is unfathomable that he would purposely crash the stock market supposedly to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates. Extremely reckless and stupid. I can’t bear to look at our retirement funds and 401k.

 

[LilAlex]

Sure glad that I'm not in the market.

How can you be in the US and not be in the stock market?!

We try to stay 65:35 and the last two days dipped us to 62:38 (!) so my pre-determined investment policy statement (pre-determined by me) says that I must "re-balance" and swap 3% of our net worth out of bonds and into stock. I think I'll have plenty of time to do this -- I doubt it's gonna pop right back up like with some of his mutterings.

I also have shed some of my "home-country bias" -- a little less confidence in "American Exceptionalism" (and not that I was ever all-in on that). Over the past few months we have upped our international at the expense of domestic equity. Fortunately, how I apportion our stock (US vs. international) is not part of my hard-wired investment policy statement so I am free to self-sabotage there. Same with large cap vs. small cap, etc.

 

[VRBeauty]

I hope there’s some recovery before I need to start taking MRD’s in a few years. Kind of doubt it, though.

My more immediate concern is the effect of tariffs. My garage burned down late last summer and we’ll be rebuilding it this year. I was hoping to upgrade with a few luxury touches - add a much-needed adjacent patio with pergola, and a lift-up glass door, on the garden side, for one of the bays. I’m expecting significant increases in both material and labor costs that might limit my options.

BTW, did you know that we can no longer write off the cost of personal losses due to catastrophes such as fire, theft, or wind damage unless those losses are due to a federally declared disaster event? It’s one of the tax law “improvements” adopted as part of the 2017 “tax cuts and jobs act.”

At least that means less paperwork and record keeping. *sigh*

 

[kenny]

How can you be in the US and not be in the stock market?! ...

I just am.

 

[Avondale]

Well, maybe Congress will act to limit his using emergency powers to impose these tariffs. Kind of doubtful that they will go against him, but there is some movement that way.

Quite honestly, it's high time. That’s the whole point of having separation of powers, after all. And right now it's necessary for the legislative and judicial branch to check the executive one.

To add to amateur hour, it’s very possible AI was used to come up with the tariff formula.

I have a meme (or is it?) for you.

 

[Rockdiamond]

I started to put some money into the stock market about 2 years ago. A friend subscribed to a service that advised when and what to buy.
It was fun while the market was rising. I bought Apple at about $170.
This year, as events have been unfolding…. It seemed so obvious what was coming.
I liquidated all my stocks. Sold Apple at about $235 about a month ago. If I’d have held it I’d have lost many thousands of dollars.
The downside will be capitol gains taxes. But loosing all that money seems worse.

The mentality of just holding seems so unwise based on the new realities. Maybe in the past…. Weekends are so much less stressful not fearing another collapse Monday morning due to unwelcome weekend news.
I can always buy it back. It’s at $188 now.

Maybe if the market slides even further the powers that be will get rid of the insane tariffs. One can hope

 

[diamondringlover]

I just am.

I am not in the stock market either..my retirement fund at work is in a safe account sort of like a glorified savings account...I don't make a lot of money but I also never lose money...I learned years ago that I don't like losing money so I always do what is safe! Hubby refuses to check his accounts.....

 

[LilAlex]

I started to put some money into the stock market about 2 years ago.

You're playing the game wrong!

I guess I'm "lucky" in that I have no business or business inventory to worry about and no business to sell to fund my retirement. So I'm a "salaryman" and have had to invest for retirement every pay-period for many decades now. This guarantees that I'm buying more cheap shares than expensive shares (as the market fluctuates). Spouse has done the same. Most is tax-deferred and that was a big motivator. Stock market is for > 10 year time horizon; there have been some bleak ten-year windows for us, in retrospect.

I gave up on stock-picking in the early '90s. That's an almost fool-proof way to lose money. Even the quants at the biggest brokerages can't beat the indices (for proof, review the SPIVA data). Every year, a handful of funds and managers "crush" whatever index they are benchmarked against but they regress right back below the mean and it's somebody else the next year.

I can't say "start now" because it can be too late in a lifetime to make a big play, Was it Buffett or Munger who said, "Be fearful when others are greedy; be greedy when others are fearful." Re-balancing does exactly that and is much easier to dispassionately implement.

(And my [non-finance] Dad always said, quoting whom, I'm not sure: "The bears do fine and the bulls do fine but the pigs get slaughtered" -- meaning those who pile in only after a huge run-up or following stocks tips.)

 

[Daisys and Diamonds]

my kiwisaver (govt retirement thingy) is set to high risk
i have been too sick to even think about doing anything

 

[Rockdiamond]

You're playing the game wrong

I’m sure you’re right.
I think like a trader. All these years in a business where the value of inventory changes.
Buy a diamond for a buck. The list goes up and it’s worth a buck twenty five. Goes down and it’s worth ninety cents.
As the business changed over the past years investment in diamonds became less attractive.
I saw the market going up and wanted to participate in a limited manner.
I have always kept a majority of funds in a money market account… but did buy some shares of Apple, Amazon, and a few other companies that felt very secure.
When I thought it became likely the market would fall- about 4 or 5 weeks ago I sold all of it.
Advised my friends to do the same. But many feel it’s a long term investment- selling is counterproductive based on their thinking. I think they’re wrong.
But I don’t know how to play the game as you’ve pointed out.

 

[missy]

I’m sure you’re right.
I think like a trader. All these years in a business where the value of inventory changes.
Buy a diamond for a buck. The list goes up and it’s worth a buck twenty five. Goes down and it’s worth ninety cents.
As the business changed over the past years investment in diamonds became less attractive.
I saw the market going up and wanted to participate in a limited manner.
I have always kept a majority of funds in a money market account… but did buy some shares of Apple, Amazon, and a few other companies that felt very secure.
When I thought it became likely the market would fall- about 4 or 5 weeks ago I sold all of it.
Advised my friends to do the same. But many feel it’s a long term investment- selling is counterproductive based on their thinking. I think they’re wrong.
But I don’t know how to play the game as you’ve pointed out.

As pointed out the stock market is a marathon, not a sprint. I have been invested in stocks and bonds since I was a child. My parents and grandparents started us out and I continued into adulthood. As @LilAlex wrote the earlier you start investing the better and it is for the long haul. Second guessing and panicking only hurts you. Slow and steady is the way to go and avoid panicking as that is a recipe for disaster. The worst investment decisions are those driven by fear or greed. And those who are driven by fear or greed invariably don’t recoup their investment in the process.

No one can predict the future but if you remain calm and hold on and have patience you generally will reap returns in the long term. Buy, hold, diversify and be skeptical of forecasts. Ignore the extraneous noise and hang tight. Markets go through ups and downs but generally rise in value over the long run. It’s time in the market rather than timing the market that often generates the best returns. Always act strategically and not emotionally. Not everyone is suited to investing in the market but it is the best way forward in generating wealth. IMO

 

[Rockdiamond]

Yea. And I saved tens of thousands of bucks by reacting to events that are far beyond anything we’ve ever seen.
It seems to me that by using the past performance to dictate current actions overlooks the fact that norms are being smashed. The world economy is being thrown into chaos with no apparent rhyme or reason. This is not“normal” What worked for many years isn’t going to necessarily work going forward.
In fairness- my experience is limited. I have an account that allows for easy purchase and sale of stocks. So it was easy for me to buy- and sell.
It does seem that investment counselors don’t make money when people divest.
My advice remains. Sell now. You can always buy back if the market recovers.

 

[missy]

Yea. And I saved tens of thousands of bucks by reacting to events that are far beyond anything we’ve ever seen.
It seems to me that by using the past performance to dictate current actions overlooks the fact that norms are being smashed. The world economy is being thrown into chaos with no apparent rhyme or reason. This is not“normal” What worked for many years isn’t going to necessarily work going forward.
In fairness- my experience is limited. I have an account that allows for easy purchase and sale of stocks. So it was easy for me to buy- and sell.
It does seem that investment counselors don’t make money when people divest.
My advice remains. Sell now. You can always buy back if the market recovers.

As with everything you (general you) must do what feels right to you
I can’t link this because of the rules but search pbs dot com and

Feeling queasy about the stock market? Think twice before selling, financial advisers say​

And I will emphasize everyone needs to do what feels best but do your due diligence before panicking

 

[missy]

7 Tips on How to Survive in a Bear Market

It is natural to grow uneasy when a market slump begins to look like it's here to stay. Get our tips on how to stay afloat financially during a bear market or major stock market downturn.

www.ml.com

 

[Madam Bijoux]

I never got into the stock market. Never trusted it. Insured CD’s and money market accounts at a bank are as adventurous as I get.

 

[autumngems]

I put some of mine in a higher risk about 6 months ago, I am afraid to look.

 

[Rockdiamond]

I put some of mine in a higher risk about 6 months ago, I am afraid to look.

Look.
Then sell now.
It's likely going to get worse.
you can always re-buy

Financial advisors have the motivation to advise people to stay in the market......

 

[Lookinagain]

Look.
Then sell now.
It's likely going to get worse.
you can always re-buy

Financial advisors have the motivation to advise people to stay in the market......

I think someone's age really determines if this is a good strategy or not. Selling low and re-buying high doesn't make sense if you have time to wait it out. I got hit pretty hard back in 2008 but I was young enough to just sit tight and everything came back and continued to grow. Selling what you perceive to be long term losers makes sense, but if you have the time to wait, holding onto solid stocks makes sense as well.

 

[Rockdiamond]

think someone's age really determines if this is a good strategy or not

Absolutely!
Today a buddy called me to discuss this very issue.
It occurred to me that the biggest issue with “advice” to hold for the long run is a one size fits all approach that really doesn’t fit all.
Age is a big variable. As well as how long one has been in the market. Tax considerations are crucial.
He did call to thank me for not being an “I told you so” having warned him a month ago that this was coming. He’s staying the course and not divesting as I suggested. For sure it’s a personal decision