Lab grown diamonds will make good natural diamonds way more expensive

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

I just watched a GIA webinar on gem treatments. They started with a simple argument:
99% of ruby sapphire and emeralds are treated.
If everyone demanded the 1% that are naturally good enough as mined - then there would be no mines and no gems.

So what dos this have to do with Natural and man mad diamonds?

Pretty simply - there is more non PriceScope quality diamonds sold in the world. The majority of searches here are for D-I +SI1 diamonds. The diamonds below those grades are sold in retailers around the world. They do not look great.
Those NQR diamonds are going to loose out big time to man made diamonds, especially after De Beers open their now factory and the price differential become huge (forcing other sellers to cut costs and selling prices) and the supply greater.

The Argyle mine produced more natural diamonds than all the other sources in history added together. When the mine started average value of the rough was $6 per carat. It grew to a bit over $10p/ct. We would never have had the pink diamonds from Argyle were it not for the very cheap NQR gems. If Argyle was discovered today no financiers would put up $2B to build the mine.

Prospectors are not getting funding. I know - I am involved in Geocrystal with my friend Ewen Tyler who found Argyle and Ellendale.
So the replacement of cheap goods with man made diamonds spells future shortages of natural diamonds.

The wealthy and true (non geeky) lovers who want a great looking natural diamonds will have to pay more.

 

[OoohShiny]

I just watched a GIA webinar on gem treatments. They started with a simple argument:
99% of ruby sapphire and emeralds are treated.
If everyone demanded the 1% that are naturally good enough as mined - then there would be no mines and no gems.

So what dos this have to do with Natural and man mad diamonds?

Pretty simply - there is more non PriceScope quality diamonds sold in the world. The majority of searches here are for D-I +SI1 diamonds. The diamonds below those grades are sold in retailers around the world. They do not look great.
Those NQR diamonds are going to loose out big time to man made diamonds, especially after De Beers open their now factory and the price differential become huge (forcing other sellers to cut costs and selling prices) and the supply greater.

The Argyle mine produced more natural diamonds than all the other sources in history added together. When the mine started average value of the rough was $6 per carat. It grew to a bit over $10p/ct. We would never have had the pink diamonds from Argyle were it not for the very cheap NQR gems. If Argyle was discovered today no financiers would put up $2B to build the mine.

Prospectors are not getting funding. I know - I am involved in Geocrystal with my friend Ewen Tyler who found Argyle and Ellendale.
So the replacement of cheap goods with man made diamonds spells future shortages of natural diamonds.

The wealthy and true (non geeky) lovers who want a great looking natural diamonds will have to pay more.

Interesting post, thank you, Garry

Do you think the mines might use technology to offset such a situation? I recall that they are finding more BIG rough stones now thanks to X-ray(?) machines, so I imagine it's not outside the realms of possibility to use technology to increase harvest from a given quantity of ore? (Assuming the smaller stones aren't already all being scavenged from the ore??)

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

Interesting post, thank you, Garry

Do you think the mines might use technology to offset such a situation? I recall that they are finding more BIG rough stones now thanks to X-ray(?) machines, so I imagine it's not outside the realms of possibility to use technology to increase harvest from a given quantity of ore? (Assuming the smaller stones aren't already all being scavenged from the ore??)

It does depend on the mine type and what the average and distribution sizes are Shiny.
Pipes from shallow vs deep depths and stuff like that.
Its hard enough to find any profitable Kimberley let alone ones with lots of huge type II diamonds like in Lesotho.

 

[Gemturn]

I just watched a GIA webinar on gem treatments. They started with a simple argument:
99% of ruby sapphire and emeralds are treated.
If everyone demanded the 1% that are naturally good enough as mined - then there would be no mines and no gems.

So what dos this have to do with Natural and man mad diamonds?

Pretty simply - there is more non PriceScope quality diamonds sold in the world. The majority of searches here are for D-I +SI1 diamonds. The diamonds below those grades are sold in retailers around the world. They do not look great.
Those NQR diamonds are going to loose out big time to man made diamonds, especially after De Beers open their now factory and the price differential become huge (forcing other sellers to cut costs and selling prices) and the supply greater.

The Argyle mine produced more natural diamonds than all the other sources in history added together. When the mine started average value of the rough was $6 per carat. It grew to a bit over $10p/ct. We would never have had the pink diamonds from Argyle were it not for the very cheap NQR gems. If Argyle was discovered today no financiers would put up $2B to build the mine.

Prospectors are not getting funding. I know - I am involved in Geocrystal with my friend Ewen Tyler who found Argyle and Ellendale.
So the replacement of cheap goods with man made diamonds spells future shortages of natural diamonds.

The wealthy and true (non geeky) lovers who want a great looking natural diamonds will have to pay more.

I have been thinking this for quite some time. Thank you!

 

[nala]

Speculation. If only.

 

[Pearl19]

That makes sense Gary. I can see 'normal' uncertificated diamonds falling in value on the pre-owned market simply because the seller might have no way to prove they are not man made - no jeweller can tell either apart and the cost of detailed lab appraisals on average quality stones is prohibitive. They test as diamonds, but that's it. At the moment it's easy enough for buyers to take the word of the seller, but as lab grown stones start to become more commonplace that security could vanish.

For that reason I'm keeping my earth mined diamonds where I have sufficient proof of their provenance, but I'm happily selling my smaller undocumented pieces and replacing them with better quality and larger lab stones.

 

[icy_jade]

Supply and demand. If prices of earth-mined do go up then I expect that it will make funding for new mines available.

Does scenario assume unchanged demand for earth-mined diamonds? Millennials seem to think differently.

 

[Yelena]

Thanks for sharing. I guess it’s a case of watch this space.

 

[123ducklings]

Does scenario assume unchanged demand for earth-mined diamonds? Millennials seem to think differently.

Yes, and also that they’re a consumable good. Mines and labs aren’t the only way beautiful diamonds make their way into the supply chain. If diamonds are forever our ACAs will certainly outlive us.

 

[Rpb]

It also depends on how much liquidity will be there in the system in the future. With interest rates very low for the last few years, in case of them rising will leave economies going into deep recession (not even starting to factor due to COVID-19) so it will have to be seen as to how uncertain next few years will be.

 

[MakingTheGrade]

Yeah I’ve largely lost interest in white natural diamonds with the advent of lab diamonds being commercially available. Back to colored gems, exploring pearls and getting colored diamonds on occasion.

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

That makes sense Gary. I can see 'normal' uncertificated diamonds falling in value on the pre-owned market simply because the seller might have no way to prove they are not man made - no jeweller can tell either apart and the cost of detailed lab appraisals on average quality stones is prohibitive. They test as diamonds, but that's it. At the moment it's easy enough for buyers to take the word of the seller, but as lab grown stones start to become more commonplace that security could vanish.

For that reason I'm keeping my earth mined diamonds where I have sufficient proof of their provenance, but I'm happily selling my smaller undocumented pieces and replacing them with better quality and larger lab stones.

Testing is not that difficult to identify if a diamond is type II. Gemologists can get inexpensive testers using long and short wave UV and learn some stuff.
But here is the kicker:
Strong Blue Fluorescent diamonds are all but guaranteed to be natural!
(if short wave UV is stronger than long wave then there is a high chance the diamond is man made)

 

[Skyjems]

I am primarily a coloured stone dealer, we have dealt with synthetics for a VERY LONG TIME!

My best guess as to how things are going to turn out is as follows:

Just as synthetic sapphires, rubies and emeralds became very popular for a time after they were first released (and quite expensive by today's standards), synthetic diamonds are going to be a popular replacement for real diamonds for another 15-20 years.

As they become increasingly cheap to manufacture, we are going to start seeing synthetic diamonds used in paste jewellery, THIS is what will kill the synthetic diamond market.

Although we may see sales of very low quality diamonds (frozen spit) dry up as synthetics are used, I think that SI2/SI3+, J/K+ 'commercial quality' stones are going to remain popular for your average buyer.

The 'Sherlock Holmes 2.0' is now $6500, I would bet we see a hand held model for under $500 in 2-3 years.

The idea that 'synthetic diamonds are going to sink the diamond business' is laughable to me, I get calls at least once a week from synthetic manufacturers offering to send me as much synthetic diamonds as I want, and I only have to pay for what I sell.

This has literally NEVER happened to me with any other gem and it tells me that even those holding synthetic diamonds in inventory have zero faith in their future value.

Anyway, best of luck to all of us!

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

I am primarily a coloured stone dealer, we have dealt with synthetics for a VERY LONG TIME!

My best guess as to how things are going to turn out is as follows:

Just as synthetic sapphires, rubies and emeralds became very popular for a time after they were first released (and quite expensive by today's standards), synthetic diamonds are going to be a popular replacement for real diamonds for another 15-20 years.

As they become increasingly cheap to manufacture, we are going to start seeing synthetic diamonds used in paste jewellery, THIS is what will kill the synthetic diamond market.

Although we may see sales of very low quality diamonds (frozen spit) dry up as synthetics are used, I think that SI2/SI3+, J/K+ 'commercial quality' stones are going to remain popular for your average buyer.

The 'Sherlock Holmes 2.0' is now $6500, I would bet we see a hand held model for under $500 in 2-3 years.

The idea that 'synthetic diamonds are going to sink the diamond business' is laughable to me, I get calls at least once a week from synthetic manufacturers offering to send me as much synthetic diamonds as I want, and I only have to pay for what I sell.

This has literally NEVER happened to me with any other gem and it tells me that even those holding synthetic diamonds in inventory have zero faith in their future value.

Anyway, best of luck to all of us!

Brilliant analysis David.
Frozen Spit is being replaced in sales all around the world right now. The retailers taking free inventory (I have friends doing this too) are not replacing their FS crap.
On top of that as Argyle TLB material dries up starting next year - the cheap gem supply will nearly halve.

 

[OoohShiny]

The idea that 'synthetic diamonds are going to sink the diamond business' is laughable to me, I get calls at least once a week from synthetic manufacturers offering to send me as much synthetic diamonds as I want, and I only have to pay for what I sell.

This has literally NEVER happened to me with any other gem and it tells me that even those holding synthetic diamonds in inventory have zero faith in their future value.

Anyway, best of luck to all of us!

I've had idle thoughts about setting up a MMD-based jewellery business here in the UK, and would therefore appreciate having good inventory thrown at me

A few small issues, though:

- I have zero business experience
- I have zero capital (as in literally zero)
- The government response to Covid-19 in the UK seems designed to double unemployment and decimate vast swathes of industry in the short and long term...

It's going to be a rough ride economically across the world for a long time!

 

[nala]

I am primarily a coloured stone dealer, we have dealt with synthetics for a VERY LONG TIME!

My best guess as to how things are going to turn out is as follows:

Just as synthetic sapphires, rubies and emeralds became very popular for a time after they were first released (and quite expensive by today's standards), synthetic diamonds are going to be a popular replacement for real diamonds for another 15-20 years.

As they become increasingly cheap to manufacture, we are going to start seeing synthetic diamonds used in paste jewellery, THIS is what will kill the synthetic diamond market.

Although we may see sales of very low quality diamonds (frozen spit) dry up as synthetics are used, I think that SI2/SI3+, J/K+ 'commercial quality' stones are going to remain popular for your average buyer.

The 'Sherlock Holmes 2.0' is now $6500, I would bet we see a hand held model for under $500 in 2-3 years.

The idea that 'synthetic diamonds are going to sink the diamond business' is laughable to me, I get calls at least once a week from synthetic manufacturers offering to send me as much synthetic diamonds as I want, and I only have to pay for what I sell.

This has literally NEVER happened to me with any other gem and it tells me that even those holding synthetic diamonds in inventory have zero faith in their future value.

Anyway, best of luck to all of us!

Wow. So when they hit rock bottom price—and become ubiquitous—I doubt that future brides will be super excited to be proposed to with such an inexpensive symbol. Like why bother with a ring? Social media is a super effective advertising tool and celebrities are still constantly wearing diamonds left and right, and yes, even millennials are posing with their new rings on IG—bc the experience of showing off is just as valuable to them as the experience of traveling. Lol. But i digress. As the Mother of a young lady, I am expecting the real deal—not what will become equivalent to a moissanaite—and will happily educate her on the subject. Like yeah, my future son-in -law proposed to my darling baby with a cheap ring—I expect many mothers would be alarmed and equate the ring to a cubic zirconia. By the looks of a thread I started in hangout, most women are “not happy with just anything” when it comes to the ring. This is the reality. As long as the Crown Jewels are displayed in the Tower of London, authentic diamonds will be highly valued for their natural origins.
You have to wonder why fabricators of man-made diamonds didn’t apply the DeBeers strategy of limiting inventory.

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

You have to wonder why fabricators of man-made diamonds didn’t apply the DeBeers strategy of limiting inventory.

Great post Nala, but De Beers is almost completed its BIG factory in Portland Oregon fuelled by hydo clean power specifically for LGD's. Expect to see a huge ramping up of availability.
And the special feature is that it costs less per carat to make a 1ct diamond than 2 half carat diamonds when you take all of the factors into account. But a natural 1ct diamond costs 4 times more than a half carat diamond.

 

[Eeveepenny]

Wow. So when they hit rock bottom price—and become ubiquitous—I doubt that future brides will be super excited to be proposed to with such an inexpensive symbol. Like why bother with a ring? Social media is a super effective advertising tool and celebrities are still constantly wearing diamonds left and right, and yes, even millennials are posing with their new rings on IG—bc the experience of showing off is just as valuable to them as the experience of traveling. Lol. But i digress. As the Mother of a young lady, I am expecting the real deal—not what will become equivalent to a moissanaite—and will happily educate her on the subject. Like yeah, my future son-in -law proposed to my darling baby with a cheap ring—I expect many mothers would be alarmed and equate the ring to a cubic zirconia. By the looks of a thread I started in hangout, most women are “not happy with just anything” when it comes to the ring. This is the reality. As long as the Crown Jewels are displayed in the Tower of London, authentic diamonds will be highly valued for their natural origins.
You have to wonder why fabricators of man-made diamonds didn’t apply the DeBeers strategy of limiting inventory.

I find certain parts of this really hard to read in regards to how shallow it sounds. There’s more to life than spending money on a ring. Some couples would prefer to own their own house, start a business, travel, whatever it may be. As a 30 year old who has recently got engaged to the love of my life I certainly know that my mum would not care if he proposed to me with a natural or a man made ring. All she would care about is that we are happy and love each other. Too much emphasis is placed on a ring! A ring doesn’t make you happy if you’re in a horrible relationship. Be happy guys! A ring is a ring and at the end of the day it really doesn’t matter if it’s a $1000 or a $100000 ring, love is love

 

[maryjane04]

A ring is a ring and at the end of the day it really doesn’t matter if it’s a $1000 or a $100000 ring, love is love

I love it when people say this. But I've been on the other end with a $10 ring and it certainly wasn't nice. I guess if LGD diamonds were a big thing back then and a simple gold setting I'd be happy with. Diamonds are diamonds right?

 

[nala]

I find certain parts of this really hard to read in regards to how shallow it sounds. There’s more to life than spending money on a ring. Some couples would prefer to own their own house, start a business, travel, whatever it may be. As a 30 year old who has recently got engaged to the love of my life I certainly know that my mum would not care if he proposed to me with a natural or a man made ring. All she would care about is that we are happy and love each other. Too much emphasis is placed on a ring! A ring doesn’t make you happy if you’re in a horrible relationship. Be happy guys! A ring is a ring and at the end of the day it really doesn’t matter if it’s a $1000 or a $100000 ring, love is love

You should have chimed in on my thread in hangout. Most posters said they Would not be happy with just anything—this is PS, of course—but that thread could use your refreshing input! Congrats on your engagement and don’t give my shallow opinion a second thought! Be happy that you got what you got. But as for my DD, if What @Skyjems Claims is true—man made diamonds will be priced like cubic zirconias and will lose their significance in society. After all, you didn’t purchase a cubic zirconia, did you? You spent thousands more on your man—made... why? Wouldn’t you be just as happy with a cubic zirconia ring if a ring is just a ring? Maybe that is what is hard for you to read—the possibility that your ring might be devalued. The irony. Man-made’s set out to devalue natural diamonds and but now the writing is on the wall bc man-made investors seem on the verge of desperation according to @Skyjems. But it’s all speculation so don’t lose sleep over it. Enjoy your ring!

 

[Garry H (Cut Nut)]

You should have chimed in on my thread in hangout. Most posters said they Would not be happy with just anything—this is PS, of course—but that thread could use your refreshing input! Congrats on your engagement and don’t give me shallow opinion a second thought! Be happy that you got what you got. But as for my DD, if the post I quoted turns out to be true—man made diamonds will priced like cubic zirconia and will also lose their significance. Maybe that is what is hard for you to read—but it’s all speculation so don’t lose sleep over it.

Nice polite argument ladies and Gents.
Diamonds still need to be polished like diamonds which costs way more than CZ. I cant see LGDs falling below a few hundred a carat. Ever.

 

[nala]

I havent seen your post on hangout, I don’t look at that forum regularly and to be honest I actively avoid reading any of your threads. I actually got a 1ct natural diamond for my engagement and then upgraded to a man made diamond in a bigger size. You’re entitled to your opinion and so am I. As some awesome lady once said, I won’t let you shit all over mine and others happiness. You constantly come on this forum and try and make people feel like shit with your negative comments about lab grown diamonds. You really don’t seem like a happy person to me. So once again, I wish you happiness!

I’m sorry that you really internalize my opinions. I hope you can make peace with whatever it is that triggers you. Here I am just speculating, as we all are—no need to take it personally. If I could predict the future, and all of that, lol... but please don’t cheapen this forum with vulgar language.

 

[nala]

Nice polite argument ladies and Gents.
Diamonds still need to be polished like diamonds which costs way more than CZ. I cant see LGDs falling below a few hundred a carat. Ever.

Ok. Moissaintes? Also—don’t underestimate technology!

 

[Eeveepenny]

I’m sorry that you really internalize my opinions. I hope you can make peace with whatever it is that triggers you. Here I am just speculating, as we all are—no need to take it personally. If I could predict the future, and all of that, lol...

You’re negative and I avoid negative people. Simple as that! Please please find happiness

 

[ForteKitty]

Nice polite argument ladies and Gents.
Diamonds still need to be polished like diamonds which costs way more than CZ. I cant see LGDs falling below a few hundred a carat. Ever.

Do you think the vivid blues will ever get that cheap? I'd love a 10+ct old emerald cut in vivid blue, and a 8+ct old cushion in the H-I range.

 

[Yelena]

Do you think the vivid blues will ever get that cheap? I'd love a 10+ct old emerald cut in vivid blue, and a 8+ct old cushion in the H-I range.

Ohhhh I hope so

 

[xxxxxx]

Wow. So when they hit rock bottom price—and become ubiquitous—I doubt that future brides will be super excited to be proposed to with such an inexpensive symbol. Like why bother with a ring? Social media is a super effective advertising tool and celebrities are still constantly wearing diamonds left and right, and yes, even millennials are posing with their new rings on IG—bc the experience of showing off is just as valuable to them as the experience of traveling. Lol. But i digress. As the Mother of a young lady, I am expecting the real deal—not what will become equivalent to a moissanaite—and will happily educate her on the subject. Like yeah, my future son-in -law proposed to my darling baby with a cheap ring—I expect many mothers would be alarmed and equate the ring to a cubic zirconia. By the looks of a thread I started in hangout, most women are “not happy with just anything” when it comes to the ring. This is the reality. As long as the Crown Jewels are displayed in the Tower of London, authentic diamonds will be highly valued for their natural origins.
You have to wonder why fabricators of man-made diamonds didn’t apply the DeBeers strategy of limiting inventory.

So you’re going to tell your daughter she should only accept a proposal if it’s with a mined diamond?
Why don’t you let her decide what she wants?
What exactly do you mean with educate her on the subject?
And as her mother shouldn’t you be expecting a guy who respects and loves your daughter? I know of so many guys buying 100k rings and cheating on their fiancée or wife’s. And then I know hard working men that didn’t propose with any ring, but are the most loyal loving husbands.

Why bother with a ring? Do you only wear your mined diamond ring because it’s a mined diamond and a status symbol? I wear diamonds because they sparkle (:

You quoted your thread in hangout that women don’t want just anything. I would say every woman wants something specific, but this also could include a beautiful lab ruby ring or mmd ring or 10 carat mined diamond. It’s a spectrum.

 

[Yelena]

This has certainly been an interesting thread. Personally I would be very happy to see Lab Grown Diamonds sold very cheaply. It will be great to give my daughter lovely sparkly gifts of jewellery when she is a teenager and let her develop her taste in jewellery through playing around with a lot of different types of pieces. You can do this now to a certain degree with second hand pieces and cheaper pieces made with silver and semi-precious stones. It will be interesting to see where things are in 10 years time when she is bound to be asking for such things.

In terms of ‘cultural’ traditions regarding proposals and engagements. The idea of a man presenting a diamond ring specifically to a woman for engagement doesn’t exist in many cultures. Some cultures place more emphasis on the wedding rings and aren’t so much into the Tiffany style setting with a solitaire diamond being presented on bended knee. I have many cousins who live overseas who wear wedding rings with no engagement ring. The diamond engagement ring isn’t much of a thing over there, although interestingly enough they wear a lot more in the way of gold chains / charms / earrings over there. The work of goldsmiths is more interesting over there for sure!

Personally I like colour a lot so like @ForteKitty said, bring on the coloured LGDs... as long as they look good and not fake.

 

[xxxxxx]

Oh and one more point. Please somebody of the people who say that mmd prices will fall and that mmd is almost worthless show me we’re I can buy beautiful lab diamonds for as much as moissanite! I think at this point we need facts and sources to this claim.

 

[ForteKitty]

You quoted your thread in hangout that women don’t want just anything. I would say every woman wants something specific, but this also could include a beautiful lab ruby ring or mmd ring or 10 carat mined diamond. It’s a spectrum.

That is so true. My much younger brother proposed at the beginning of the year, but they picked out the ring together. When they asked for jewelry help, I was so excited. She asked if I had any square shapes and all I had was a princess cz from maybe 17 years ago when Wink sold them. Got together a tray of different styles of mountings, 6 -7 loose diamonds (1-2ct, E-K colors) along with some already set antique rings, and a few other czs in different shapes that I happened to have. She took one look and immediately picked the princess, and told him she wants a moissanite, not a diamond. There was a 2ct oec diamond in there (free of charge to them) and she still picked the princess because that's what she liked! Not gonna lie, I was a bit crushed and we wanted my brother to get her a princess diamond, but she insisted that she isn't comfortable wearing something that expensive. And just by chance, the ring she saw years ago and couldn't get out of her mind happened to be made by Stuller, so overall the ring was maybe $600, and she's SO happy. Her ring turned out gorgeous and it's exactly what she wanted. My idiot brother said "well, if she loses it like she loses most things, it wont be a big deal to replace"