Let's talk about investments

[Betty Baguette]

Sadly, I don't think that this is true. Look at the US in the early 20th century and the current "economic stars" of the developing world. A "healthy world" is a newish concept -- maybe since Rachel Carson?

But more importantly, how is all the (appropriate) fear actionable from an investing standpoint? When do you pull all your money out of the US stock market? I'm sure glad that I didn't at the darkest days at the dawn of the pandemic. The only seemingly-inviolate rule of investing -- and the one that has impressed me the most over my not-short investing lifetime -- is that we can not predict the future.

So what are you going to sell and what are you going to buy to prepare for these end times? Cash is no good (i.e., if there's hyperinflation, etc.) And gold will just get you killed.

Plus, a huge share of the SP500 returns lately have been driven by the tech companies that are trying to address these problems (admittedly, for profit and not out of altruism, per se).

I also know and work with a lot of bright young people (I can't believe that I use that expression with a straight face now) and even helped raise a few and I know the world will be in good -- and probably better -- hands.

Well, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on most of this, @LilAlex. I have no investing advice to offer; I'm just a rando on the internet with a scientific research background who likes to look at antique jewelry, lol.

But I do also like to look at the big picture of things, and learn from people who are smarter than me. Hence my recommendation to listen to the podcast I mentioned above and see how it might apply to our personal finances/investments going forward in this strange new world.

Cheers!

 

[Betty Baguette]

^edited

 

[LilAlex]

I have no investing advice to offer; I'm just a rando on the internet with a scientific research background who likes to look at antique jewelry, lol.

So help me out here. It's an investing thread. You are confident that the stock market can't keep going up and up because we are destroying the world. I agree that we are in a world of hurt. None of those podcast themes are new to me or unexpected. I am a fellow scientist and probably toward your end of the political spectrum. I work to make the world better and not worse.

So how do I use this information to better prepare for my financial future? I am serious. What do you suggest that people invest in? Do you (or would you) tell your kids to not save money or not invest because there is no future?

 

[smitcompton]

Hi,

No matter what kind of world we have, we still must live in it. We do our best to see both short- and long-term goals and yes, as individual life itself, is precarious, we must carry on. You appear to have taken on a fatalistic attitude. toward the future. Is that anyway to live? You are pronouncing us dead before we are dead.

I enjoy investing.. Maye it will be for nought, but in the meantime I will continue to invest.

Annette

 

[Betty Baguette]

Off the top of my head, if I were advising an 18-year-old, I would likely suggest:

Taking a gap year to see as much of the world as possible (rich counties, poor countries, countries currently most impacted by climate change).

Reading, reading, reading about current world and U.S. issues.

Not taking out student loans.

Learning a very practical trade.

Buying a small house with at least a couple of acres of land for growing some food in a "climate haven". Paying off this house ASAP.

Once this house is paid off, investing in farming land in this area and/or rental property.

Buying other tangible assets that can easily be sold/bartered.

After accomplishing the above, then consider investing in the stock market.

 

[Betty Baguette]

Hi,

No matter what kind of world we have, we still must live in it. We do our best to see both short- and long-term goals and yes, as individual life itself, is precarious, we must carry on. You appear to have taken on a fatalistic attitude. toward the future. Is that anyway to live? You are pronouncing us dead before we are dead.

I enjoy investing.. Maye it will be for nought, but in the meantime I will continue to invest.

Annette

Maybe fatalistic. But also realistic.

 

[Betty Baguette]

The youngsters under 30 are also fatalistic (realistic) about the future. Nothing I've said would likely shock them. Many of them think we older folks have our heads in the sand. Over half of them think humanity is "doomed" and a very large percentage are not planning to have kids because of it:

This chart shows global youth perspectives on climate change

Young people are increasingly at the forefront of climate change activism. Around 70% of those aged 16-25 are extremely or very worried about the climate.

www.weforum.org

Nearly Two-Thirds of Young Americans Fearful About the Future of Democracy in America, Harvard youth poll finds

Second release of data from IOP's spring poll shows politicians, money in politics, the media, political correctness, structural racism and access to higher education contributing factorsCAMBRIDGE, MA – A new national poll of America’s 18- to 29-year-olds by Harvard’s Institute of Politics...

iop.harvard.edu

 

[Betty Baguette]

And here's a poll about the future of American democracy that includes us oldsters. It was conducted just this week. Here's a quote from it:

"If democracy is the complex engine that guides the country's future, it's clear a vast majority of Americans now fear a catastrophic breakdown is possible," said Tim Malloy, analyst for the Hamden-based poll.

If a catastrophic breakdown of U.S. democracy does occur, what happens to the U.S. and world economies, the stock market, etc. @LilAlex? I personally have no idea.

Anyway, here's the article:

Vast majority of Americans concerned about future of democracy

The vast majority of the nation is worried about the future of democracy, the latest Quinnipiac University Poll finds.

www.chron.com

 

[smitcompton]

Hi,

I am glad you feel informed. Now that you are informed, perhaps a nice break from that reading should be next on your to do list. No reading for a while. Or a nice trip to beautiful country(I(I think some still exist.

Most of us on this board are aware of the grave problems ahead. It can be overwhelming at times, but most of us do the best we can to make life good while we are here.

Betty =fatalistic is not a good place to be. Realistic is different. We have in the past found solutions to a myriad of problems. In the 70s people were moving to Oregon, Idaho to escape and farm to get away from the bad, bad world. My own brother approached me with his plan to escape the world. I wouldn't go, and he also didn't go. He is in commodities and has a nice retirement. I hope you will as well.

Annette

 

[Betty Baguette]

I'm not sure either of us is using the term "fatalistic" correctly, @smitcompton. Regardless, I think I'm being pretty realistic. Look up Stephen Hawking's and Neil DeGrasse Tyson's predictions on the number of years humanity has left. Look at where the Doomsday Clock is now set.

Personally I think we'll have a long, slow collapse (significant loss of societal complexity and/or human population) before the worst happens.

Anyway, I'm not walkin' 'round like it's a funeral. I'm making plans. I'm crossing items off my bucket list, including trips to some places that will be under water within a short time. I'm enjoying life, even though...

OK, now I'm going back to looking at shiny antique objects Annette.

 

[kenny]

Of course hindsight is 20/20, but here are a couple of purchases I'm glad I made:
Buying a house I could barely afford 25 years ago that was a falling apart fixer-upper in foreclosure in the best neighborhood that I could barely afford. ... actually not afford since I had to pay PMI a few years till appreciation made refinance possible.
Zillow estimates it's now worth 5 times what I paid.
I bought it the day it fell into foreclosure because my agent told me it would sell THAT day.

About a dozen years ago I bought a 10-point GIA VS1 Fancy Red Radiant diamond with an even and clean pure stoplight-red hue for $36K.

I thought I was crazy to pay that much.
But today Leibish is listing another 10-point GIA SI2 Fancy Red Pear diamond with many dark areas and the hue below (which still somehow got the same GIA Fancy Red grade) for $64K.

Both below pics are unaltered screen captures from Leibish's website.
The apparent size difference of the stones is not the stones themselves.
Rather it's different enlargement of the images that Leibish happened to upload.

With my advancing age and medical conditions I'm considering selling "Kenny's Big Red".

 

[LilAlex]

Off the top of my head, if I were advising an 18-year-old, I would likely suggest:

You did deliver on what you would advise young people to invest in. I completely disagree but thank you for putting it out there.

You also gave practical advice to young people and I want to comment on that. You emphasized learning about how awful the world truly is and enjoying what's left. I'm surprised that you did not mention: do everything in your power to arrest and then reverse the downward spiral. Be an activist (and I do not mean phony antifa, which is mostly just carpetbagging vandals and drug addicts.) I think the apocalyptic ennui is more dangerous than the coming threats. My spouse is nearly as pessimistic as you -- down to wondering if she even wants grandchildren. (I reassure her that we are unlikely to be present in the moment that decision is made.) But she has been a whirlwind of energy in canvassing and GOTV phone banking -- both locally and around the country -- and she's sent thousands of postcards to undecided voters in pivotal states and districts. She has become more active in local government and in civic engagement. We all thanked her after the last two national elections.

All my adult kids and all their friends are under thirty and they have big plans.

Stock market or no stock market, if you're convinced it's all gonna burn, should we all just YOLO our way to oblivion?

 

[missy]

Throughout time there have been bleak views about the future. Our time is no different. Yes the issues we are facing might be somewhat different yet somewhat the same. And we have made it through each time despite the dire predictions. And we will make it through again. I am a very realistic person bordering on pessimistic. And yet I feel there is a bright future ahead no matter the current and future challenges. Am I being naive? Am I being a "pollyanna"? No, this is what I believe and only time will tell. Of course we won't be around for that future but I do believe there is a future and it isn't all darkness and gloom. IMO

 

[Betty Baguette]

Throughout time there have been bleak views about the future. Our time is no different. Yes the issues we are facing might be somewhat different yet somewhat the same. And we have made it through each time despite the dire predictions. And we will make it through again. I am a very realistic person bordering on pessimistic. And yet I feel there is a bright future ahead no matter the current and future challenges. Am I being naive? Am I being a "pollyanna"? No, this is what I believe and only time will tell. Of course we won't be around for that future but I do believe there is a future and it isn't all darkness and gloom. IMO

I appreciate what you're saying, @missy. It's good for individuals to have positive mental attitudes.

But I do believe there are dangers to societies having, and promoting, false hope (aka "hopium"). First off, false hope can lull many into complacency. I doubt, @LilAlex, that your wife would be canvassing, etc. if she believed things will all be OK in the end. And it sounds like she is doing good work.

In the case of climate change, hopium can cause societies to put their faith into technologies that will make things even worse for our planet. See the documentaries "Bright Green Lies" or Michael Moore's "Planet of the Humans" if you're curious about this. We are doing some insane things to "fix" the climate problems we've created.

As far as our societal structure and democracy go, they will eventually fail. All prior democracies have collapsed within about 250 years. The U.S. is in year 247.

Anyway, I'm going to leave this thread now. I've derailed it enough.

 

[LilAlex]

But I do believe there are dangers to societies having, and promoting, false hope (aka "hopium"). First off, false hope can lull many into complacency. I doubt, @LilAlex, that your wife would be canvassing, etc. if she believed things will all be OK in the end. And it sounds like she is doing good work.

So you recognize the dangers of having "false hope" yet somehow infer that no hope is safer? I do not understand this. I also do not understand unwillingness to work toward a solution -- or using your expertise and obvious intelligence to galvanize others to act rather than to give up.

Of course my wife is worried about the future; that's why she acts. Failure to act would be unfathomable to her. You seem to suggest that she acts because it is hopeless -- that makes no sense (give her a little credit!).

If you think all democracies die at 250 years, you must know that we can not even predict a single human lifespan -- for which there are superb data -- to anywhere near that precision. And what happened when those democracies died? It didn't wipe out humanity.

We may experience some dark decades -- there may even be nuclear war (G_d forbid) and catastrophic global warming -- but even then I do not think that is the permanent end of human happiness. And there are many, many places on Earth that have already endured equally inhospitable conditions for decades if not millennia -- just not "us" yet.

Not my business but it makes me sad and even concerned: I think you may be operating at a clinically significant level of hopelessness.

 

[Mreader]

I think this is the highest priority. Would make a lot more sense, imo, to put this into 529 plans for your kids than save a condo for them.

One can "make a lot of money" in real estate but most do not. It is undiversified (a few properties in your country and your local market), expensive to maintain (add up the typical expense for property tax, utilities, maintenance, hours devoted, vacant/unoccupied time). Unlike, say, in the US stock market, in real estate it is very hard to replicate others' past success. (Emphasis on "past")

There is very good guidance out there about what one "should" invest in. There will be a lot of responses about what others have done. Hitting a home run on Apple or crypto is not a strategy; do not confuse a good outcome with a good strategy.

Here goes (and this is what we have done for decades): for most people, the best bet is low-cost index stock mutual funds/ETFs and index bond mutual funds/ETFs, in the ratio that allows you to sleep at night. (100% stock can lose 50% of its value in the blink of an eye vs. bonds are paying very little now -- which, ironically, has contributed to the run up in the stock market.) Most people are in the 70:30 to 50:50 ratio, except the very young earners (my kids), who may be 100% stock.

The total US stock market has more than doubled over the last year and a half so you do not necessarily need anything exotic to make a killing. Mostly you need "time in the market." This is why the rich are feeling no pain right now. Six percent inflation? When your portfolio is up > 20% in 2021 alone?

The other most important thing is to not pay someone 1% or 1.5% annually for "managing your money" -- either in the form of a fee you pay your "advisor" or in the form of a high "expense ratio" for investing in some product. (Often it's both -- like for awful Edward Jones and other "full service" brokers.) On sites like this (https://www.dinkytown.net/java/compare-investment-fees.html), it is very easy to demonstrate that over the course of your investing life (30 - 40 years), your advisor will earn more from your investments than you do. Yes, you read that correctly. Little has changed since "Where are the Customer's Yachts?" was published over a half-century ago.

(In contrast, it's fine to pay a CFP/fiduciary advisor a one-time $1,000 fee to look at everything and give you advice.)

Do not buy hot stocks or hot funds; there are ample objective data that typical investors fare way worse than the market as a whole because they buy high ("I'm giddy!") and sell low ("I'm scared!") -- and that is the exact opposite of a winning strategy. The only way to guarantee that you are buying more inexpensive shares and fewer expensive shares is to invest the same dollar amount every week, month, or paycheck. Look up "dollar-cost averaging." This is one of the many reasons that workplace pre-tax investing for retirement is so successful. And if you have a "match" at work, this your highest priority for investing: max your match.

Spouse and I know that we have made every mistake in the book, but we had the good fortune to make them all when we were very young and had no money .

I could write for days on this (maybe I have ) but with just this information, you will probably be in the 90th percentile of retail investors, knowledge-wise.

EDIT: this is not my field but many in my field ask for my advice about this

I am bumping this and commenting on Alex's post bc atm we do have a financial advisor (that we basically inherited from my mom when we inherited her IRA). You say not to pay someone but is there a particular reason why if I myself am a bit lost in how it all works? I would feel really nervous about trying to figure out how to invest on my own. But the reason I am bumping is bc DH does more research than me and he's getting annoyed at our advisor (who is new-ish bc they old one sold and retired). The advisor is putting alot in foreign stocks when the American market has been doing so well...we also have bonds and ETF in the same portfolio. DH is talking to me about breaking from advisors completely and going index which tracks the market. I am leery bc again, feel odd about managing it ourselves when it's not our field of expertise.