Storm Debbie

[Arcadian]

We now have tropical storm Debbie. GFS is running right now so this is the only update I can give right now. Also, no recon missions at this time.

Current Euro is ...interesting. I don't want to post it because its actually quite scary in that it shows the storm being stationary along coastal NC/SC showing what you're seeing here on the official maps. Slow moving storms are ones that can do a lot of damage, even if they are not that strong.

This is going to be a large storm and its also by the models will move slow when its inland. NC/SC, south Georgia, Northern FL, please pay very close attention because this can be life or death flooding.


The windfield on this storm is really large.

Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

000
WTNT44 KNHC 032054
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

The tropical cyclone has become better organized since the last
advisory, with the circulation center becoming better defined over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and areas of outer convective
banding to the north and south of the central region. A
combination of earlier scatterometer data, surface observations in
the Florida Keys, and ship reports in the Straits of Florida shows
an area of 30-35 kt winds located about 120 n mi from the center in
the eastern semicircle. Based on this information, Tropical
Depression Four is upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby.

The initial motion is now northwest or 310/13 kt. A large mid- to
upper-level trough over the central United States is creating a
break in the subtropical ridge, and Debby is expected to turn
northward into this break in about 24 h. This should be followed
by a gradual turn toward the northeast at a slower forward speed
through 60 h. This motion should bring the center near or over the
northern Gulf coast in roughly 48 h. After landfall, weakening
steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it
moves northeastward or eastward over parts of northern Florida and
Georgia. The uncertainty in the forecast increases significantly
after 60 h as the cyclone interacts with a portion of the U.S.
trough. The latest GFS and ECMWF models show a slow eastward
motion into the Atlantic, followed by a turn toward the north or
northwest that brings the center back inland. On the other hand,
the Canadian model is still forecasting Debby to move slowly
northeastward across the southeastern states and does not bring it
over the Atlantic. This portion of the new forecast track
continues to show a slow motion and leans toward the GFS/ECMWF
solutions.

Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico
with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear.
Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h, then
proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized
inner core. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity
of 65 kt at landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida in best agreement
with the HWRF model. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the
system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the
intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to the possibility
of land interaction and how much interaction will occur with the
aforementioned mid-latitude trough.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the
Southeast this weekend through Thursday. Significant river flooding
is also expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys.

3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian
Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to
Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required tonight or on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 23.9N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 25.3N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0600Z 31.0N 83.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1800Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1800Z 31.5N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1800Z 33.0N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

[Arcadian]

We just got another severe storm warning and because I'm on the right side of the storm (dirty side) and the eye is off shore, and because the storm is big, pretty much the entire peninsula is feeling this as it comes north.

Earlier we had a very interesting wind gust which came from the south and shook the house.

Its probably not going to be a fun night.

AND GFS is seeing another system heading to TX roughly August 13-15 but no model agreement on that. Not sure what level Jumangi this whole thing is.

Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion

794
WTNT44 KNHC 040249
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Debby during the past few hours and have found that
the winds have increased slightly and the central pressure has
fallen. The NOAA P-3 plane reported SFMR measurements of 35-40 kt
east of the center over the Straits of Florida, and dropsonde data
indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 1003 mb. The
initial intensity is therefore raised to 40 kt.

Debby is gradually turning toward the right and slowing down, and
the initial motion is northwestward, or 320/12 kt. A large mid- to
upper-level trough over the eastern United States has created a
break in the subtropical ridge, which will cause Debby to move
northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the
Florida Big Bend region over the next day or two. The track
guidance is in good agreement during this period, and the NHC track
has only been shifted slightly east to account for a slight
relocation of the initial position based on the aircraft data.
After 2-3 days, the steering currents around Debby collapse, and
the cyclone is expected to creep northeastward at less than 5 kt
across northern Florida to near the coasts of Georgia and South
Carolina by day 5. While there is model disagreement on exactly
where Debby will end up on day 5, there is high confidence that the
storm will not be moving very fast, and this slow motion will have
major implications for the associated hazards, particularly heavy
rainfall and flooding.

Low vertical shear and very warm waters (as warm as 32 degrees
Celsius within Apalachee Bay) are likely to support additional
strengthening while Debby approaches the Florida Big Bend. The
intensity guidance has increased a bit on this cycle. Most of the
regional hurricane models are showing Debby reaching hurricane
strength before it reaches the coast, while the
statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models have increased to the
75-80-kt range. In addition, the Rapid Intensification indices are
showing a 1-in-3 chance of a 45-kt increase in intensity over the
next 36 hours. Based on these model data, the NHC intensity
forecast has been increased to 75 kt in 36 hours, just before the
center of Debby is expected to reach the coast. Weakening is
anticipated after landfall, but Debby's intensity on days 3 through
5 is highly uncertain and is dependent on whether the center moves
over the Atlantic waters and for how long.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the
Southeast through Thursday. Significant river flooding is also
expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys.

3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian
Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to
Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 24.4N 83.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 25.9N 84.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 27.8N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 29.3N 84.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 30.3N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/1200Z 31.0N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0000Z 31.2N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 08/0000Z 31.6N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 09/0000Z 33.0N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

[Arcadian]

I just realized I spelled Debby wrong

The windfield on this storm is enormous the tails are too! And we're gusty here in South FL at current but yesterday and early this morning was an adventure.

Recons are taking place and likely will throughout the day.

Aircraft Reconnaissance | Tropical Tidbits

Live updating recon data for the Atlantic basin

www.tropicaltidbits.com

This is GFS taken out to 96 hours (so about Thursday) It mimics Euro in that it slows down considerably over land without falling apart. The disagreement comes when and if Debby emerges over water. Still this is a storm that everyone along the east coast should pay attention to.

Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion

812
WTNT44 KNHC 040847
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Debby continues to slowly strengthen over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Deep convection is gradually expanding over the center and
in fragmented bands on the system's east side. Some of the outer
bands are moving through portions of the Lower Florida Keys and
southwestern Florida, producing tropical-storm-force gusts. The
initial wind speed is nudged upward to 45 kt, in agreement with the
Dvorak classification from TAFB. Both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the storm
today, and that data will provide very helpful information to
evaluate Debby's strength and structure.

Debby continues to gradually turn to the right, with the initial
motion now estimated to be north-northwestward at 11 kt. The storm
is currently located on the southwestern periphery of an Atlantic
mid-level ridge, and it is headed toward a weakness caused by a mid-
to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. This steering pattern
should cause Debby to turn northward and then north-northeastward
during the next day or so, taking the core of the cyclone to the Big
Bend region of Florida early Monday. There is high confidence on
this scenario, and little change has been made to that portion of
the track forecast. While Debby moves across the very warm waters
of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and remains in a relatively low wind
shear environment, the storm will have an opportunity to strengthen
rapidly before reaching the coast. The reliable intensity models
all suggest significant strengthening, and the degree of
intensification will be most related to how quickly Debby develops
an inner core. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end
of the intensity guidance through landfall, and shows Debby becoming
a hurricane by tonight prior to landfall.

After Debby makes landfall in Florida, the system is expected to
slow down and turn northeastward across northern Florida and
southeastern Georgia on Monday and Tuesday as the steering currents
weaken significantly. There is a lot of model disagreement in
whether or not the center of Debby stays inland or moves off the
coast of the southeast U.S. by the middle of the week. But, a
building ridge should cause it to turn northward or northwestward
and likely back inland during the middle and latter portions of the
week. Although confidence is low in the details of this portion of
the track forecast, the complex and weak steering pattern suggests
that Debby will be moving quite slowly and likely erratically while
near or over the southeastern U.S., resulting in a potentially
significant flooding event. Since it is not clear if the center
will remain inland or move offshore for a period of time, the
intensity forecast is also of low confidence. For now, little
overall change to the intensity forecast was made, and it shows
Debby remaining a tropical storm while meandering near the southeast
U.S.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of northern Florida through Friday morning.
Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
South Carolina through Friday morning will likely result in areas of
severe and widespread flash and urban flooding. Significant river
flooding is also expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect,
with tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within
the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys.

3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian
Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to
Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

4. Impacts from storm surge and strong winds are possible elsewhere
in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from
Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of the week, and
interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required
later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 25.5N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 30.9N 83.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/1800Z 31.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0600Z 31.7N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/0600Z 32.4N 80.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 09/0600Z 34.3N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[junebug17]

Keeping everyone in the path of this storm in my thoughts. Looks like I'm in for a lot of rain in the next few couple of days.

 

[ShinyPink]

Scary! Stay safe, @Arcadian

 

[Arcadian]

Do stay safe @junebug17 Ther rain and wind gusts here isn't too bad and subsiding, but further north and on the west coast I've heard its pretty nasty.

 

[junebug17]

Do stay safe @junebug17 Ther rain and wind gusts here isn't too bad and subsiding, but further north and on the west coast I've heard its pretty nasty.

Thanks @Arcadian! I'm glad it hasn't been really bad for you, thanks again for keeping everyone posted.

 

[tyty333]

Getting bands of rain/wind/lighting where I'm at. Nothing too bad though. My parents are on the other coast and are getting hit
a little harder. They ran out today and bought a few things "just in case". Hope Debby doesn't dump a ton of rain on anyone!

 

[Arcadian]

Same, we had a crazy breeze roll through and its currently raining as we're getting a feeder band.

A look at how big this thing really is.

 

[Arcadian]

Debby turned into a hurricane late yesterday. The forecast says that there will be a very significant slow down. Down to 10mph.

 

[Arcadian]

We still have some gusty winds and cloudy skies from Debby because she's a big girl:


There's a lot of power outage in the area of impact. Also, looks like Georgia is starting to get impacted by the winds being on the dirty side of the storm and also due to its slow moving nature.

United States Power Outage Map

PowerOutage.us tracks, records, and aggregates power outages across the United States.

poweroutage.us

Speeds on this storm has slowed down a lot. 8mph and its going to get slower.

Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion

398
WTNT44 KNHC 051455
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Debby's center made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region earlier
today around 1100 UTC with an estimated intensity of 70 kt. Since
landfall, the system has moved over northern Florida while gradually
weakening below hurricane intensity. Assuming a typical rate of
weakening over land, the current intensity is set at 60 kt. WSR-88D
Doppler velocities still show hurricane-force winds aloft, at an
elevation of about 3500 ft, over the northeastern quadrant of the
cyclone. Therefore, some damaging winds could still be brought down
to the surface in the more vigorous convection near the inland path
of Debby.

Debby has been moving through a break in the subtropical ridge with
an estimated initial motion of 030/7 kt. Steering currents are
expected to weaken some more, resulting in a further decrease in
forward speed. Most of the track guidance turns Debby eastward,
with the center moving off the coast near the Georgia/South
Carolina border in about 36 hours. Debby should move very slowly
near the South Carolina coast through 60 hours or so. Then, a
mid-level ridge builds slightly to the northeast of the cyclone,
which should push the system back inland over the latter part of
the forecast period. The official forecast track is a blend of the
simple and corrected dynamical consensus models, TVCA and HCCA.

Continued weakening is expected while the center of Debby remains
over land tonight and Tuesday. By late Tuesday and thereafter,
some restrengthening is anticipated as the center moves offshore.
However the amount that the cyclone re-intensifies is dependent on
how far out over the Atlantic the system moves and how long it
remains over water. The current official forecast shows only
modest restrengthening, given the uncertainties.

Going forward, the biggest threat from this slow-moving system
system is extreme precipitation and flooding over the southeastern
United States.


Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue in the Storm Surge
warning area along the Gulf Coast of Florida, including the Tampa
Bay area, through this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
Gulf Coast of Florida today within the Tropical Storm warning area.

4. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida
to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm Surge and
Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for portions of these
areas, and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued
later today. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow
any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 30.2N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 31.7N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0000Z 31.9N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 07/1200Z 32.1N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 09/1200Z 34.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 37.4N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

[Asscherhalo_lover]

Being as I've just bought a waterfront home (in NY but still), I'll be watching this all very closely.

 

[diamondringlover]

hope everyone stays safe!

 

[Arcadian]

Its been a busy day for me but I did see some video in Sarasota county where there is a ton of flooding. Its a very bad situation for these areas that are flooding.

Debby is now barely moving and thats bad for a storm this size.

 

[Asscherhalo_lover]

We ordered flood barriers today. Our house was raised and has flood vents (post Sandy) but if we can keep it out (if it's lower than the flood vents) we will. We also have ramps and jack stands for the cars. Flooding is so scary, I'm hoping the best for everyone.

 

[autumngems]

I am hoping it moves by us fairly quickly (Eastern Coastal NC). With slow movement and the amount of rain we could be in for flooding as in Florence again. We had enough devastation here with that.
Gov Cooper just declared state of emergency for NC ahead of storm due to catastrophic flooding expected along NC coast. Storm surge expected. We are in Tornado watch.

 

[Arcadian]

Sorry I have such a late start. Ivy tore webbing in her front left paw so had to take her in for surgery (she'll be fine though)

The expectation is its moving off shore but then going back on shore as the steering currents are weak.

Tropical Storm Debby Public Advisory

 

[Arcadian]

Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion

146
WTNT44 KNHC 061454
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Surface synoptic data, satellite imagery, and WSR-88D radar
observations indicate that the center of the cyclone is near
the coastline in the vicinity of the Georgia/South Carolina border.
As a result of its interaction with land, Debby's intensity has
decreased to near 35 kt. Most of the deep convection is occurring
in bands well to the east and northeast of the center as drier air
has been impinging on the southwestern quadrant of the circulation.

Debby has been gradually turning to the right and slowing down,
with a current motion estimate of around 060/5 kt. The cyclone is
situated in an area of weak steering currents within the subtropical
ridge. The track guidance shows a slow, generally eastward motion
during the next day or so, bringing the center out over the South
Carolina coastal waters. By late tomorrow and early Thursday, the
global models predict a strengthening mid-level ridge to the east of
Debby. This evolution should cause the system to turn northward
and north-northwestward and move back over the coastline in 36 to
48 hours. Thereafter, Debby is expected to move northeastward near
the northeast U.S. coast at an increasing forward speed, ahead of a
mid-tropospheric trough moving into the Ohio Valley region. The
official forecast is a blend of the latest model consensus
predictions.

Although the center of Debby is forecast to be over water later
today, the lack of an inner core should allow only slow
re-strengthening for the next day or so. Since the system is not
expected to move far enough offshore to interact significantly with
the Gulf Stream, this should limit the amount of oceanic heat
content available to the storm. The official intensity forecast
is near or slightly above the latest statistical/dynamical DSHIPS
and LGEM guidance.


Key Messages:

1.Potentially historic heavy rainfall across eastern South Carolina
through Friday will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding.
Heavy rainfall will likely result in flooding impacts from northern
North Carolina through portions of Mid-Atlantic States and southern
New England through Sunday morning.

2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Georgia
to North Carolina through Thursday. Storm surge and tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect for portions of these areas.
Residents in the storm surge watch and warning area should follow
any advice given by local officials.

3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards
remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure
generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide
poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools,
and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 31.9N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 32.0N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 32.2N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 32.6N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 33.2N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 34.2N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 35.7N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/1200Z 40.2N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 11/1200Z 45.0N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

[junebug17]

Thanks @Arcadian!

I'm about an hour outside of Charleston - Heavy rain and windy. I think maybe the worst is over for my area? Rain today, Wed, and Thursday but not nearly as heavy. Hopefully that doesn't change! My house and immediate area are fine. There is flooding, standing water, and debris in other areas according to updates we've been getting. The Charleston area is under a tornado watch until 5 pm today. There were a few reports of tornados touching down in the area last night. Damage but no deaths or injuries reported.

On a lighter note, apparently frogs love this weather, I'm hearing lots of croaking!

 

[Arcadian]

Right now we're getting one of Debby's feeder bands in South Florida. Not as bad as what what north of us is getting by a long shot.

This is the next 7 days. Oh boy....
People in this area where its absolutely going bonkers please be careful. Check in and let us know things are OK!







This GFS model run shows until Friday, showing little movement and strengthening. The Euro is similar so they're on the same page.

 

[Arcadian]

Debby is off shore at South Carolina but right in the gulf stream so there's the expectation of strengthening because of this.

Thursday is going to be rather ugly as it comes back on shore with this storm moving at 4mph Also its still has that really large windfield and because of this plus all the rain associated, wide range flooding will be expected.




There's a lot of convection on the northeast side of the storm which is sweeping back on shore into SC/NC and VA

Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion

888
WTNT44 KNHC 070845
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Debby's circulation consists of a nearly 60 nm wide convection-free
region near the center, which is drifting eastward off the coast of
South Carolina. Moderate to deep convection is organized in broken
bands well away from the center, with the strongest band currently
feeding into eastern North Carolina. The storm appears to have
strengthened slightly now that a greater proportion of the
circulation is back over water, and the initial intensity is set at
40 kt based on a 0143 UTC ASCAT-B pass.

The longer-term motion is slowly eastward, or 085/4 kt. Although
Debby is expected to maintain a slow motion for the next 24 hours or
so, a mid-level ridge over the western and central Atlantic should
cause the storm to turn northward today, with the center reaching
the coast of South Carolina by tonight. Debby should then
accelerate toward the north and northeast beginning on Thursday over
the eastern United States and eastern Canada, ahead of a deep-layer
trough moving across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. No
changes were required to the new NHC track forecast, which lies on
top of the previous forecast and down the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Debby's structure does not argue for any type of significant
strengthening, but warm ocean waters of 29 degrees Celsius and low
shear could allow the wind field to strengthen a bit over the next
24 hours while the circulation remains over water. A peak intensity
of 45 kt is shown at 12 and 24 hours, which is generally in line
with the bulk of the intensity guidance. Weakening is forecast to
begin by 36 hours once the center moves inland, and global model
fields and phase-space diagrams indicate that Debby is likely to be
absorbed by a front and become extratropical by 60 hours over the
Mid-Atlantic region of the United States.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of eastern South Carolina and
southeast North Carolina is expected to persist through Thursday
which would broaden areas of considerable flooding. Expected heavy
rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from
the Piedmont of the Carolinas, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States,
and Vermont through Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the
southeast U.S. coast from South Carolina to North Carolina through
Thursday. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect
for portions of that area.

3. A dangerous storm surge is possible along the coast of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from South Santee River to
Cape Fear. Residents in that area should follow any advice given by
local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 31.9N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 32.3N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 32.9N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 34.1N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 36.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/1800Z 39.2N 77.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0600Z 43.8N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z 50.8N 62.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 53.9N 53.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

[Arcadian]

Thanks @Arcadian!

I'm about an hour outside of Charleston - Heavy rain and windy. I think maybe the worst is over for my area? Rain today, Wed, and Thursday but not nearly as heavy. Hopefully that doesn't change! My house and immediate area are fine. There is flooding, standing water, and debris in other areas according to updates we've been getting. The Charleston area is under a tornado watch until 5 pm today. There were a few reports of tornados touching down in the area last night. Damage but no deaths or injuries reported.

On a lighter note, apparently frogs love this weather, I'm hearing lots of croaking!

Yes we're also having quite the frog chorus Stay safe and do check in when you can.

 

[autumngems]

Good bit of rain yesterday, the roads on installation were starting to flood a bit, could barely go 40 on the way home yesterday. Today: tornado warnings in counties all around us. We expect to get most of the rain/flooding starting this evening.
Worry about daughter, she works over on the island/beach, water spouts/tornado warnings there yesterday.
We expect about 10-12 in of rain.

 

[junebug17]

Things are ok with me, the rain has lessened quite a bit. I haven't been out of the house since Sunday so I don't how the local roads are. I'm not thrilled that it's supposed to make a second landfall in the Charleston area, ugh.

 

[autumngems]

Hour ago

 

[junebug17]

The storm hit far enough northeast of us that we aren't having any effects from it, in fact the sun is peeking out once in a while. Looks like it's over for my area.

@autumngems, I hope you and your family are ok, take care.

 

[Arcadian]

Thank you to everyone who's checked in I'm glad you're safe. So much has been going on with this storm.

Storm is supposed to start the north climb. I'm always amazed it made stayed at a Tropical Storm. It still has a lot of juice though and still getting some energy from the gulf stream.

Its going to start going a bit faster and thats always good. but still being quite large will cause flooding in low laying areas as it moves north.

Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 081442
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Debby continues to move farther inland with the center now located
over northern South Carolina. Surface observations and radar data
indicate that the strongest winds are likely occurring near the
coast and just offshore of southern North Carolina. The highest
sustained winds during the past couple of hours from reliable
surface observation sites are near 30 kt with higher gusts. Based
on the decreasing observed wind speeds, the initial intensity is
lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. By far, the most significant
threat with Debby continues to be flash flooding from heavy
rainfall.

Debby is starting to accelerate toward the north-northwest, with the
current motion estimated at 345/9-kt. A ridge that is currently
strengthening over the western Atlantic will cause Debby to
accelerate northward, moving across central North Carolina this
evening. Then, a deep-layer trough will approach the Great Lakes
region on Friday, which will cause Debby to accelerate northeastward
over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Friday and Friday night and
then over Atlantic Canada on Saturday. There are only minor changes
to the track forecast, hedging toward the latest consensus models.

Debby should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and most
of the models indicate that the winds near the coast should decrease
a bit more later today. Debby is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression by this afternoon or evening. Model phase space diagrams
show that Debby should complete transition to an extratropical
cyclone in about 24 to 30 h. The current satellite imagery shows
that Debby is already starting to interact with the jet stream,
which extends toward the east-northeast over the North Atlantic.
Debby is now expected to complete extratropical transition in about
24 h as the cyclone merges with a cold front while over the
mid-Atlantic states. Beyond Friday, models show a post-tropical
Debby becoming extremely elongated along the cold front, which will
eventually lead to dissipation. The new NHC forecast has Debby
dissipating Sunday morning, but that could occur sooner.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding.
Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable to locally
catastrophic flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States and Northeast through Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue for several more hours in
the Tropical Storm Warning area along the coast of northeastern
South Carolina and portions of North Carolina.

3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely to continue along
portions of the North Carolina coastline for several more hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 34.5N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0000Z 35.8N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1200Z 38.7N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0000Z 42.8N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1200Z 47.0N 69.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0000Z 50.7N 61.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

 

[autumngems]

Thanks @junebug17
So far me and mine are ok here, however we are under tornado warnings until 9pm. They are popping up everywhere. A middle school was hit with the front torn off and a house flattened (1 dead) in Wilson about 2 hours away

MSN

 

[Amber St. Clare]

My friend lives in Broward County and I haven't been able to reach them, Getting a little concerned as I saw awful reports of seeing furniture and other things flying in the wind,

 

[Arcadian]

My friend lives in Broward County and I haven't been able to reach them, Getting a little concerned as I saw awful reports of seeing furniture and other things flying in the wind,

Unsure which Broward County you're talking about as FL is the only one I know about.