Calling all the Pregnant PS''ers

[neatfreak]

Ok...so I lied. I am working on calculating it...


If each of us have odds of 1/90 of having twins, and there are 31 pregnancies here, the probability of 5 of us having twins is...(calculating here)

 

[jas]

NF, why am I thinking that''s it''s actually 1/30 births? Am I nuts?

 

[neatfreak]

Date: 7/10/2008 7:09:57 PM
Author: jas
NF, why am I thinking that''s it''s actually 1/30 births? Am I nuts?

That is for fertility treatments. Non-fertility treatments is 1/90 roughly...

 

[jas]

Date: 7/10/2008 7:11:34 PM
Author: neatfreak

Date: 7/10/2008 7:09:57 PM

Author: jas

NF, why am I thinking that''s it''s actually 1/30 births? Am I nuts?

That is for fertility treatments. Non-fertility treatments is 1/90 roughly...

I''ll have to check my baby books at home. For some reason it is sticking in my craw that due to fertility treatments, the twin rate is now 1/30 rather than 1/90...however, my brain is broken and I trust your research rather than my noodle.

 

[Skippy123]

Congrats to all the twin mommies and all the new mommies

 

[neatfreak]

Date: 7/10/2008 7:14:41 PM
Author: jas

Date: 7/10/2008 7:11:34 PM

Author: neatfreak

Date: 7/10/2008 7:09:57 PM


Author: jas


NF, why am I thinking that''s it''s actually 1/30 births? Am I nuts?

That is for fertility treatments. Non-fertility treatments is 1/90 roughly...

I''ll have to check my baby books at home. For some reason it is sticking in my craw that due to fertility treatments, the twin rate is now 1/30 rather than 1/90...however, my brain is broken and I trust your research rather than my noodle.

Could be, but because none of us used fertility treatments the right stat to use would be the 1/90 for this one.

 

[Independent Gal]

JAs, NF is right that that''s the right of twins for fertility treatments. We want to exclude those, since we want the probability of this happening ''just be chance'' (which for each of us is 1 in 80 or 90 or something like that) absent anything we can identify that would make it more likely (except our age I guess!)

 

[neatfreak]

Ok....the great TWIN PROBABILITIES. Thanks to my darling husband for help with calculations (I knew it was smart to marry a mathematician!).

Some caveats/assumptions:
1. All twins were conceived without fertility treatments.
2. We assume that our population is random (we know we violate this because something drew us all to PS, but it's the best I've got).
3. It also assumes that all non-twins are conceived w/o fertility treatments...but this isn't important really as long as the twins were conceived naturally (because the odds for conceiving twins are greatly increased w/ fertility treatments).
4. This assumes no ordering to who has the twins, just the probability that 5 out of 32 people would have them.
5. This assumes that we had 32 pregnancies.
6. We are not including the increased probability of a mom who is older having twins because it just gets too complicated without knowing everyone's ages and exactly how much this increases chances, etc.

So, assuming all this (which isn't exactly correct, but in order to not take all night with this)...without further adieu...the probabilities of having:

0 sets of twins: 69.9%
1 set of twins: 25.1%
2 sets of twins: 4.4%
3 sets of twins: .49%
4 sets of twins: .04%
5 sets of twins: .0026%
5+ sets of twins: A tiny bit more than 5 (because it includes 5) but it drops off rapidly from there...

 

[Independent Gal]

For the even-more-statistically-challenged-than-me, this translates into a likelihood of roughly 1 in 4000.

One in four thousand.

Those are the chances of having as many non-fertility-treatment sets of twins as we do in our group.

Fun!

 

[ephemery1]

Oh my goodness, Indy, CONGRATULATIONS!!! How crazy... there is DEFINITELY some research to be done here!! As DD mentioned, I wonder what the average age of the PS twin mommies is? Since maternal age is correlated with incidence of multiples, Neat, I'd be willing to bet the correlation you've noticed between higher education and twins is real. Since many highly-educated people wait to get their degrees finished and academic careers underway before having children... age becomes the hidden variable in there, right? I know that having several previous children ups your odds as well, but I think Jen is our only example of that. Regardless, how wonderful!!

Sorry to be MIA, but thank you SO much to Snlee, Gemma, and Pave for checking in on me... I've been a bit of a basketcase the last few days.

I'm sure it's partly hormonal... but I am just SOOOO frustrated. I had the appt on Tuesday with my OB about my crazy BH contrax, and once again his attitude was "oh no big deal, contractions are normal". No further questions about symptoms or how I'm feeling or my hospital visit or the tests they ran, no explanation as to WHY it might be happening, or how often he sees this. No mention of the correlation between excessive BHs and preterm labor. No regard to the fact that ALL the info out there says more than 6 contrax/hr is bad, while I'm having 30 an hour.

This is a seasoned doctor in a reputable practice affiliated with a UPenn hospital. And the best he could come up with was, "Don't worry, you'll know if you're really in labor... have you seen the movie Knocked Up?"

When I made it clear I wasn't satisfied with being placated, he immediately switched gears and said "Well, then, let's put you on bedrest... pull you out of work for the next 2 weeks and see what happens." Um, right... obviously if he thought that was necessary, he would have suggested it from the beginning. I asked if he was basing that recommendation on my reaction, and he said "Well, partly... but we can err on the side of caution if you want." Then explained that if this was my 3rd baby and the others had gone full-term, he wouldn't be concerned... but since this is my 1st, we don't know what my body will do. Which makes sense... but again, if he really believes that, why wouldn't he have said so in the first place??

So he checked me quickly and pronounced my cervix closed (the resident at the hospital said "fingertip", but hey, I'll take it) and said I should come in next week and he'd check me again. Obviously only because of the concern I was showing. I would have left in tears, if I wasn't so relieved about the lack of dilation.

So I just feel really at a loss now. I've been having cramps, backache, and diarrhea along with the constant contrax... all symptoms of preterm labor. But since I'm NOT currently in preterm labor... then how do I know what signs I should be looking for? Especially since my risk is increased to 1 in 5, given the whole "irritable uterus" situation?

The whole thing just felt sooooo condescending. I explained to him (nicely, I swear

) that I am a research-minded person who really prefers to have as much info as possible when dealing with something unknown. He chuckled that I should "stay off the internet" and I explained that part of being research-minded means NOT believing everything you read... instead, gathering as many facts/stats/perspectives as possible and then forming an educated opinion. I THOUGHT his role as my OB was to provide a fairly significant perspective and hopefully some of the facts, too. Am I really asking for that much??

UGH... vent over. I need to go look at some sweet PS baby pix over on the Mommies thread to chill out a bit.

Thoughts/suggestions/advice appreciated... and once again, if you've made it through this whole post, thank you just for listening!!

 

[neatfreak]

Date: 7/10/2008 7:33:33 PM
Author: Independent Gal
For the even-more-statistically-challenged-than-me, this translates into a likelihood of roughly 1 in 4000.


One in four thousand.


Those are the chances of having as many non-fertility-treatment sets of twins as we do in our group.

Fun!

Lol...when you think about it that way, it''s not too bad of a probability really for such a "rare" event...

 

[Independent Gal]

Eph, that is just terrible and very scary! Do you have to stick with this doctor? Is it too late to switch? It sounds like it might not be a good match. What DD said about finding a good match is true I think.

 

[jas]

Hugs, Ephem...I''m so sorry you''re dealing with all this right now. I wish I knew how to help...

Indy and NF -- cool on the info. We are a rare bunch indeed. I hope I didn''t come across as strident. I am more skilled in anecdotal research (and by research I mean gossip).

 

[neatfreak]

Date: 7/10/2008 7:49:15 PM
Author: jas
Hugs, Ephem...I''m so sorry you''re dealing with all this right now. I wish I knew how to help...


Indy and NF -- cool on the info. We are a rare bunch indeed. I hope I didn''t come across as strident. I am more skilled in anecdotal research (and by research I mean gossip).

Not at all Jas! No worries.

 

[lover in athens]

eph...glad you checked in. i''ve been thinking about you!! thank goodness for no dilation!
i wish i had something to add, but unfortunately i''ve been experiencing some of that myself the past few days. certainly a lot more BHs than i used to (but NOTHING like 30 an hour...you poor thing). i also have had a small backache (really only in the morning when i wake up though) and today i''ve had awful diarrhea (which i''m attributing to the cream of wheat i made this morning with real milk despite my lactose intolerance!). i''m finding good excuses for everything, but it''s still kind of scary. when i mentioned the bhs to my doc, she gave me the standard answer to rest more and drink more (so here i am sitting/laying on the couch to study with a HUGE glass of water at all times). she also laughed and told me that in her experience, doctors are MUCH more likely to go into preterm labor and to get preeclampsia. she''s kidding (um, i think...or HOPE)...but still!! i guess these guys just deal with us nervous preggos so much that they tend to write off some of our concerns....
hang in there though!! are you going to do the bed rest??

 

[qtiekiki]

Indy - Congratulations on the two h/b!!! That''s exciting.

It''s unbelievable that PS will have 4 more sets of twins. You ladies are a special bunch.

L2L - Welcome and yay for a great NT scan.

Kay - I am still going to post the nursery pics when it''s done. I am waiting to see if anyone give us gift cards at shower tomorrow (since no one bought anything off our registry) before going to buy the sheets and changing pad for the nursery. Once I get those and put them on, then I''ll post pics. Plus next week is my last week at work, so I will be free to post a lot after that.

Jackie - So what are the 5 fattiest ice cream flavors?

Glad you''ll reunite with your DH soon.

eph - Sorry that your OB isn''t very supportive or informative, and that you have to deal with the situation and him. I agree with Indy. Do you really want to stay with him? Sound like your views are pretty different.

 

[Dreamer_D]

Date: 7/10/2008 7:29:01 PM
Author: neatfreak
Ok....the great TWIN PROBABILITIES. Thanks to my darling husband for help with calculations (I knew it was smart to marry a mathematician!).

Some caveats/assumptions:
1. All twins were conceived without fertility treatments.
2. We assume that our population is random (we know we violate this because something drew us all to PS, but it''s the best I''ve got).
3. It also assumes that all non-twins are conceived w/o fertility treatments...but this isn''t important really as long as the twins were conceived naturally (because the odds for conceiving twins are greatly increased w/ fertility treatments).
4. This assumes no ordering to who has the twins, just the probability that 5 out of 32 people would have them.
5. This assumes that we had 32 pregnancies.
6. We are not including the increased probability of a mom who is older having twins because it just gets too complicated without knowing everyone''s ages and exactly how much this increases chances, etc.

So, assuming all this (which isn''t exactly correct, but in order to not take all night with this)...without further adieu...the probabilities of having:

0 sets of twins: 69.9%
1 set of twins: 25.1%
2 sets of twins: 4.4%
3 sets of twins: .49%
4 sets of twins: .04%
5 sets of twins: .0026%
5+ sets of twins: A tiny bit more than 5 (because it includes 5) but it drops off rapidly from there...

Great work, you get the queen nerd award for today

That is a much coveted award, so use the power it grants wisely. If you have not read the section on this award in you graduate school handbook, the queen nerd award comes with the power to say, "I told you so" as much as you like for 24 HOURS, but no more! Do not abuse it.

I really wonder if the whole "random" sample thing is the key... I know even highly improbable events happen all the time

, but something in my just thinks there is a big ol'' hidden variable that we aren''t catching.

 

[Dreamer_D]

Ephemery I''m sorry about how stressful this must be! A part of me thinks you should trust your doctor and go with it... the back pain is probably normal, and the stomach problems could be nerves, I know I get like that when I am worried. But another part of my thinks that it doesn''t matter if you doctor is right or not, you clearly do not trust him and that is not good for you or your baby. Can you find a doctor you trust more at this point? I just think that is so important.

 

[Loves2Laugh]

Thanks for the warm welcome! Boy, does this thread move fast!

Indy- Congrats to you and your hubby on the twins! How cool! DH and I were a little worried about the multiple factor as we did get pg with a little help from Clomid. The first two ultrasounds I kept asking if he was sure it was just one. Although, I think we would have been good with two as well. Yeah for no m/s for you, I hope it stays that way!

Eph- I''m so sorry you''re going through this. Is there any way to get a second opinion?

I''m at a point where I have to get new bras and I''m looking into buying a few bella bands. I hate to buy new bras when I know I''ll have to probably buy more again if and when I start to b/f. Has anyone had good luck with the bella bands and know where to get the best price on them? I found some on amazon for $26 and thought that wasn''t too bad. Thanks for any input!

 

[neatfreak]

Date: 7/10/2008 8:34:43 PM
Author: dreamer_dachsie

Date: 7/10/2008 7:29:01 PM

Author: neatfreak

Ok....the great TWIN PROBABILITIES. Thanks to my darling husband for help with calculations (I knew it was smart to marry a mathematician!).


Some caveats/assumptions:

1. All twins were conceived without fertility treatments.

2. We assume that our population is random (we know we violate this because something drew us all to PS, but it's the best I've got).

3. It also assumes that all non-twins are conceived w/o fertility treatments...but this isn't important really as long as the twins were conceived naturally (because the odds for conceiving twins are greatly increased w/ fertility treatments).

4. This assumes no ordering to who has the twins, just the probability that 5 out of 32 people would have them.

5. This assumes that we had 32 pregnancies.

6. We are not including the increased probability of a mom who is older having twins because it just gets too complicated without knowing everyone's ages and exactly how much this increases chances, etc.


So, assuming all this (which isn't exactly correct, but in order to not take all night with this)...without further adieu...the probabilities of having:


0 sets of twins: 69.9%

1 set of twins: 25.1%

2 sets of twins: 4.4%

3 sets of twins: .49%

4 sets of twins: .04%

5 sets of twins: .0026%

5+ sets of twins: A tiny bit more than 5 (because it includes 5) but it drops off rapidly from there...

Great work, you get the queen nerd award for today

That is a much coveted award, so use the power it grants wisely. If you have not read the section on this award in you graduate school handbook, the queen nerd award comes with the power to say, 'I told you so' as much as you like for 24 HOURS, but no more! Do not abuse it.


I really wonder if the whole 'random' sample thing is the key... I know even highly improbable events happen all the time

, but something in my just thinks there is a big ol' hidden variable that we aren't catching.

LOL DD. Why thank you. I love being a nerd. I think one thing for sure that is a factor is that everyone except for me is older (but not old of course!

), so that contributes but didn't go into my calculations.

My DH also just said something smart at dinner about it...he is wondering if the planning of many of these pregnancies contributes to the higher rate of twins. I.e., because most of us know the EXACT best day to DTD, and we did, thus we are "catching" more eggs than are usually caught by those only casually trying or trying with less exact methods...makes sense to me...at least as much as any of this makes sense!

 

[snlee]

NF, very interesting about the twin probabilities. Wow! I am still shocked that we currently have FOUR twin pregnancies here!

eph, I''m so glad you checked in! I have been thinking about you and hoping everything is okay. I am glad to hear you''re not dilated but 30 contractions every hour is not normal at 27 weeks. I''m sorry you have to go through this. What a frustrating visit! I''m sorry but your doctor sounds like an a$$. Is there anyway to get a second opinion? Can you change doctors? Are you going to take some time off work?

L2L, I suggest you to buy one bella band (pick the color you most prefer) to try it out. I bought the bella band but only used it for a week or two because I started wearing maternity pants (ahhh so comfy!) at around 13 weeks. I didn''t get much use out of the band. It helped but was sort of annoying to me.

 

[TravelingGal]

Ephemery, I got frustrated just reading your post, so I can only imagine how you feel. Stay strong and as relaxed and groovy as possible. Your little bean needs you to do that. Hugs to ya, girl!

 

[Kaleigh]

Ephemery,
Hugs girl. I am so glad you checked in, you have been on my mind. I hope all goes well going forward, I know how frustrated you must be. Hang in there!!! Easy for me to say I know. Be well, and try to rest as much as possible.

 

[qtiekiki]

L2L - I agree with snlee about the bella band. I got one and didn''t get much use out of it because the unbuttoned button can be seen sticking out of the bella band. It makes it all lumpy and not very attractive IMO. And this is probably due to my big hips, but the band keeps riding up throughout the day. So it was a bit annoying for me.

 

[lover in athens]

L2L: i bought 3 bella bands off of amazon (great service, and the best price i found too). i got a white with lace, plain black, and tan. i really liked them (maybe in the minority here). i knew i would only be working in my more formal job until 21 weeks so i didn''t want to buy too much office maternity wear. they worked great (although by the end, i really could have used real maternity pants!!). i never used the tan one though. the white with the lace was my favorite (really just looked like a layering tee or something poking out the bottom of my shirts. they are also great for really early on when all you have is bloat (although you''re prob already past that stage!)....

and QT...we have SEEN your pictures!!. big hips?!?!?! as if!!!

 

[happy in love]

CONGRATS INDY!!!!!!!! Holy Moly it''s a twin explosion around here!
So, are they now "the cubs" or do you have another name for the second little one?

 

[lili]

Double congrats to INDY!!
There must be something in the PS air -- 5 sets of twins within a year.
Wow.

Congrats to Loves2Laugh!
Enjoy your "honeymoon" trimester.

 

[lili]

QT--
You are next....so close.
Hope you had a good time at your shower.

Kay--
Yay for the placenta moving upward!
Enjoy your trip to France!

 

[Jas12]

INDY--Craziness, wow, congrats on the twinsies !!!!

Eph--i am totally frustrated for you as well! Just my opinion but I would try to find another OB or at least get another opinion. I generally liked my OB but at times i found him condescending and dismissive which irritated me to no end made me uncomfortable expressing my wishes and concerns. Unfortunatley i could not switch and i ended up with more stress than necessary. The line "stop researching on the net and don''t believe everything you read" must be the line all industries use when they feel challenged by informed ''consumers'' (i got the exact line from my OB when i questioned him about cord-blood and i got that line from a diamond dealer when it was apparent i knew more than he did and i was researching on PS!!

. Confident care providers should be happy their patients are informed and encourage this. What is your gut telling you, do you feel like something is amsiss?
Keep us posted

 

[Kay]

Date: 7/10/2008 1:26:57 PM
Author: lover in athens
those midwives sound great!
in contrast...my new ob yesterday was talking about epidurals with me, and then she added, ''oh wait, i''m assuming you want an epidural. do you?'' i told her my plan was to have one placed at 37 weeks and be carted around in a wheelchair with an iv pole until i actually go into labor (kidding!!). her response? ''that''s ok, when i had my babies, i walked into L&D backwards with a target on my back.''

i like that we''re on the same page.

Ha, that sounds like me. My DH is in-house counsel for the hospital system that includes the one where I am giving birth. I already told him he better use his connections to get me an epi as we walk in the door.