Are you worried about the Coronavirus?

[arkieb1]

@Matata - yes, they said it will take that long "if we are lucky" I was going to say I have no idea how politicians are going to sugar coat that to prevent mass panic as the numbers continue to rise, at least we have a Government in my country that is actively accepting the latest information about it and acting in a sensible way preparing for all levels of possible scenarios ie mild, moderate and severe....

 

[ksinger]

The doctor who tried to explain it to trump said that once it's developed it has to be tested and it could be 3 years before a vaccine is determined to be safe and that we wouldn't want to rush anything to ensure we didn't end up harming the people the vaccine is meant to protect. I could see from trump's face that he wasn't happy with that and would quickly file it in his ignore & deny drawer.

Being all about denial of reality and the big lie, (and countless smaller ones) I'm sure he thinks that the best way to speed things up will be by adhering to the old adage: The floggings continue until morale improves.

 

[TooPatient]

An Amazon employee is among the new positive cases today. At least it was their smaller building (I am pretty sure). Any employee who was within 6' of the person for prolonged time has been notified so they can self quarantine.

Of the 25 firefighters and 2 police being quarantined after contact with the people from the nursing home, 12 of them are having symptoms.

Three deaths locally since yesterday, though one was a previous case who they just got results for. He actually died a week prior to the first known US fatality.

Two men in their 20s were hospitalized today at another big hospital in our area. (This is one of the two hospitals my doctors are located in and is about 15 minutes away from my house.)

The posts I have seen look promising. Stores are getting less crazy.

 

[chemgirl]

@AprilBaby , I don't get the water either, but TP is essential if you need to self quarantine. This happens without any further notice and has happened to people who or whose kids were supposedly in contact with an infected person.
Example: pediatric doctor went on holiday in Italy before true risk was known, came back, worked a few days, Infections in Italy exploded, he got texted, showed positive (no symptoms, btw) and BAM all his patients incl families were asked to self quarantine.

Two weeks at home without tp just didn't sound like a great idea.

I think buying water really depends on where you’re from and the type of disaster that you’re used to.

I didn’t buy water, but realized my emergency kit has loads of candles and matches. Because my disasters usually result in no electricity, but I live near a clean water source.

A friend who has to deal with hurricanes stocked up on water.

Hopefully core infrastructure isn’t disrupted and we don’t need either.

 

[Daisys and Diamonds]

You're in better shape that I was -- I got down to TWO rolls in the house, and I pee A LOT! So early last week (Monday I think) I went to the Costco up by TR and bought the zillion pack of toilet paper and two 40 bottle packs of water. Like you, I bought the paper because I was running out, and I buy the water up there because in the city we are charged 5 cents per bottle tax, so a $4.99 forty pack of water is $6.99. (Don't get me started with where that "tax" money goes!) So I was in line with a ton of TP and a bunch of water. (And *maybe* also one of those evil canisters of dark chocolate salted caramels... but I digress... ) People at the checkout line were looking at me funny and I couldn't figure out what was so fascinating. I guess now they just figure I was panicking, even though this was just normal shopping for me. I wonder though what the TP and water stock is in that store today?!

A few years ago we were down to one roll so i went for a walk to the local super market a half hours gentle stroll away
While i was there at the front of the quee at the check out we had an earthquake and part of the ceiling collapsed
The check out girl and i hid under her checkout
Well they ushered us all out of the shop and i raced home slightly worried about a possible tsunami rushing up the stream- but i still had no loo paper
When i got home - zero damage because we lived on rock where the super market was on reclaimed land - we were still on our last roll of paper
My lovelly neighbour gave us some

 

[Daisys and Diamonds]

The media causing hysteria is likely more dangerous than the actual virus. I am still reading the death rate likely will be less than 1% here. I am not buying into the doom and gloom some are buying into. It's just incredible that anyone would compare this to the 1918 flu when sanitation, medical care, communication, etc. were much different than today. Good article here:

The Coronavirus Is No 1918 Pandemic

The differences between the global response to the Great Flu Pandemic and today’s COVID-19 outbreak could not be more striking.

www.theatlantic.com

I truly believe the virus has been here maybe for months, because no one was testing for it. It's probably everywhere. Old people would be diagnosed with pneumonia and I am sure the deaths are lumped into the flu/pneumonia yearly death rate. Most mild cases will never be diagnosed making the percentages of serious illness even less.

One more thought, I wouldn't even consider accepting a brand new vaccine that had had minimal testing for effectiveness and not knowing longer term side effects. The last SARS vaccine was not even tested on humans because of the death rate in the mice trials. In any event, by the time they could have had a vaccine on the marker, the virus had run it's course. That is what I am hoping for this time.

For those who'd like some natural ways to boost the immune system and help if you get the virus, here's a good list.

Google Sites: Sign-in

Access Google Sites with a personal Google account or Google Workspace account (for business use).

sites.google.com

We have Vitamins C, D, and E, and organic green tea, and I think I'll order the resveratrol. They say to NOT use elderberry for this, even though it is very effective for regular colds and flu. If nothing else, I'd certainly have a good supply of Vit C on hand, and I am taking a low amount of C and D now.

Thank for that link
I would have gone for the cordial silver (excuse bad spelling) and the Elder but now I'll lavish attention on my lemon tree instead

 

[whitewave]

WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought

World health officials say the death rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.

www.cnbc.com

I agree it may not be this for first world countries.

 

[MamaBee]

A few years ago we were down to one roll so i went for a walk to the local super market a half hours gentle stroll away
While i was there at the front of the quee at the check out we had an earthquake and part of the ceiling collapsed
The check out girl and i hid under her checkout
Well they ushered us all out of the shop and i raced home slightly worried about a possible tsunami rushing up the stream- but i still had no loo paper
When i got home - zero damage because we lived on rock where the super market was on reclaimed land - we were still on our last roll of paper
My lovelly neighbour gave us some

That is so funny @Daisys and Diamonds! I’m glad you’re okay though!

 

[MakingTheGrade]

The media causing hysteria is likely more dangerous than the actual virus. I am still reading the death rate likely will be less than 1% here. I am not buying into the doom and gloom some are buying into. It's just incredible that anyone would compare this to the 1918 flu when sanitation, medical care, communication, etc. were much different than today. Good article here:

The Coronavirus Is No 1918 Pandemic

The differences between the global response to the Great Flu Pandemic and today’s COVID-19 outbreak could not be more striking.

www.theatlantic.com

I truly believe the virus has been here maybe for months, because no one was testing for it. It's probably everywhere. Old people would be diagnosed with pneumonia and I am sure the deaths are lumped into the flu/pneumonia yearly death rate. Most mild cases will never be diagnosed making the percentages of serious illness even less.

Yeah I"m not worried so much about the overall death rate as I am about the contagiosness and the ER overcrowding, ICU crowding (yes we have better technology but it's not unlimited. And if many people at once develop severe cases, well, deciding who goes on ecmo is not a job I'll envy), limitations to movement or daily life that will disrupt typical day to day things in an attempt to contain it. For example, if preschools or grade schools close, that's going to be hugely disruptive to parents who now can't go to work in order to provide child care. I can tell you right now if preschools closed in my city, 10-20% of my healthcare coworkers probably wouldn't' come to work because they would be staying home with their infant/toddler either because they're a single parent or their partner is also a doctor but in a service like emergency medicine that would be more urgent in this scenario.

Like I said previously, I'm just assuming I'll likely get it at some point. I"m not too worried since I"m young and healthy. I'm more worried about the overcrowding and reactionary consequences of more than the usual number of people getting sick at the same time to a more severe degree than unusual. Yes, antibiotics are often effective. But if you're ill to the point of needing IV antibiotics, you can't typically do that from home, and there are only so many hospital beds. The medical technology can only save you if you can access it.

I work in one of the largest hospitals in my area and during normal flu seasons we are at 105% bed capacity. Again, I don't think most people have cause to be concerned for themselves. But I am sympathetic to people who are, or have loved ones who are, at higher risk of having bad consequences if they contract the virus.

 

[arkieb1]

My local supermarket and 4 other supermarkets had no toilet paper again today. I found some almost twice the price at a chemist warehouse. I must have had such a look of rapturous joy on my face carrying my TP in my arms that other shoppers and staff were looking at me like there’s one of those crazy Apocalyptic TP hoarders.
My local supermarket;

 

[hedgehog93]

I have my first coronavirus-related drama. I’m pissed off.

Over a week ago I bought 5 x 24 packs of TP online (4 people in the house) and asked my colleagues if they wanted some (I’m quite good friends with two of them). Everyone laughed at me and said I was being ridiculous. I did it because there was a message from a university professor to stock up on a bit more than usual as there may be shortages. Anyway you’ve probably now seen the shortage in Australia that’s hit over the last few days.

Anyway fast forward to today - after getting off the phone to her sister who couldn’t buy toilet paper, one of the two I’m friends with was all like ‘you’re the reason we don’t have toilet paper and this and that’. We have a very joke-hating relationship but I felt pissed off. I told her that I asked her over a week ago if she wanted any, don’t come to me now.

The TP guilt was non stop all day, earlier when I came in first thing it was about toilet paper and how I bought loads. The other colleague I’m friends with (they live together) didn’t really say much but I was kind of like, ‘I asked you a week ago if you wanted some, I told you a week ago to get some, don’t come to me now that it’s run out’ and she was also kind of like, ‘you’re part of the reason there’s no toilet paper available in shops’. Small talk for the remaining 30 mins of the day.

Anyway as an olive branch I offered to check the supermarket on my way to the bus stop on the way home as I knew it was the opposite direction to them. There were a few in stock. I sent them the photo in our FB group chat. No thanks, no nothing. I’m being made to feel guilty here, for being prepared. I don’t even know what to do right now. I know one has PMS and the other one was quite tired. Maybe they’re moody? Address it? Leave it until tomorrow and see if it’s blown over? Am I wrong?

 

[arkieb1]

@hedgehog93 - I'm not blaming you or anyone and at this point in time find the whole thing pretty funny!!! Give it a week or so hopefully there will be more toilet paper in shops as they restock their supplies and everyone will just get over it!!!

 

[qubitasaurus]

Before we all panic, there were special circumstances surrounding the 1918 Spanish flu.

Most viruses mutate to become milder. As the more lethal strains tend to whipe out their hosts before they can transmit properly. It simply isnt selected for to kill your host.

In the spanish flu the troops who got it worst were sent back for treatment, while the mild cases were left in the trenches. These most sever cases then passed it into the rest of the population, effectively selecting for the worst strands to become more dominant. So yes the 1918 flu killed many people, and yes it became more deadly.

All this is speculation to a degree, but it is thought to be one of the possible explanations for that sequence of events.

I cant a prioro see any reason this current flu will follow the same trajectory. There simply isnt the same circumstances. While it could be arround for a while, or even resurface, it makes sense to wait and see and not worry too much yet. The direct comparison to the spanish flu seems premature, and at this stage not yet justified.

The experts writting and blogging about it are probably just trying to mentally prepare people. So that they dont panic later as it inevitably impacts many sectors of the community quite heavily.

Unfortunately getting it early doesn't sound like a good idea to me. It is not clear that you can only get it once -- simply not enough data yet to be sure. It just makes sense to keep everyone safe by following good hygiene and quarentine practices. These are effective, you only need to look at china (and the incredible success they've had) to see this. This is especially important for protecting the more vulnerable sectors of the community, who it ideally will not spread to.

 

[Snowdrop13]

Before we all panic, there were special circumstances surrounding the 1918 Spanish flu.

Most viruses mutate to become milder. As the more lethal strains tend to whipe out their hosts before they can transmit properly. It simply isnt selected for to kill your host.

In the spanish flu the troops who got it worst were sent back for treatment, while the mild cases were left in the trenches. These most sever cases then passed it into the rest of the population, effectively selecting for the worst strands to become more dominant. So yes the 1918 flu killed many people, and yes it became more deadly.

All this is speculation to a degree, but it is thought to be one of the possible explanations for that sequence of events.

I cant a prioro see any reason this current flu will follow the same trajectory. There simply isnt the same circumstances. While it could be arround for a while, or even resurface, it makes sense to wait and see and not worry too much yet. The direct comparison to the spanish flu seems premature, and at this stage not yet justified.

The experts writting and blogging about it are probably just trying to mentally prepare people. So that they dont panic later as it inevitably impacts many sectors of the community quite heavily.

Unfortunately getting it early doesn't sound like a good idea to me. It is not clear that you can only get it once -- simply not enough data yet to be sure. It just makes sense to keep everyone safe by following good hygiene and quarentine practices. These are effective, you only need to look at china (and the incredible success they've had) to see this. This is especially important for protecting the more vulnerable sectors of the community, who it ideally will not spread to.

And that particular virus damaged the lungs in such a way that people were more susceptible to getting an added bacterial pneumonia, which is likely what killed them. This at a time when there were no antibiotics or antivirals, and no such thing as intensive care or artificial ventilation. We’d have to hope that the situation would be a lot better nowadays.

 

[qubitasaurus]

And that particular virus damaged the lungs in such a way that people were more susceptible to getting an added bacterial pneumonia, which is likely what killed them. This at a time when there were no antibiotics or antivirals, and no such thing as intensive care or artificial ventilation. We’d have to hope that the situation would be a lot better nowadays.

Yes also all good points. There isn't any reason at present to suspect this virus will have the same trajectory as the 1918 flu. Rather we should just be prepared for some of us to get it, but take as many precausions as possible to minimize the numbers/spread. For our own sake, and for others.

 

[MaisOuiMadame]

I think buying water really depends on where you’re from and the type of disaster that you’re used to.

I didn’t buy water, but realized my emergency kit has loads of candles and matches. Because my disasters usually result in no electricity, but I live near a clean water source.

A friend who has to deal with hurricanes stocked up on water.

Hopefully core infrastructure isn’t disrupted and we don’t need either.

Yes, exactly, I have the feeling that a lot of people are actually preparing for a different kind of disaster than a viral pandemic. Which is understandable but not helpful for them and adding to a mass hysteria.

And it makes people who prepare for a likely situation (in home quarantine without any time at all to prepare) look ridiculous.
Anyways, we're 9 people in the house, so my twice weekly shopping looks like doomsday prepping already






Eta: also unhelpful: the people who prep for zombie apocalypse and look at you saying: there's so much the government won't tell us, this is all to decimate the population... Be prepared.
Two normally very common-sense friends did this. Shocked me a bit...

 

[MamaBee]

@MakingTheGrade What you described about not having enough equipment if too many people get sick at the same time....is something I’ve been thinking and saying to my husband for a long time. Since we are older we would be passed over...Do you suggest just isolating even though we’re not sick when the stuff hits the fan? I’m very curious what a physician would suggest we do.

 

[Niffler75]

@Mamabean I have been thinking about this too. As a clinician with an interest (not experience) in infectious diseases I refer to the WHO. They said yesterday that we are to a certain extent in 'uncharted territory'.
Our Government has been talking about 'social distancing' strategies if infection rates continue to rise.
I guess for me there are no absolutes. I would not want to isolate completely unless absolutely needed, but I would probably split things into 'low risk' and 'higher risk' activities. So for example low risk is being outside on our property/ driving in car/ walk in the fresh air with minimal people around. High risk activities would be using public transport, eating out in a restaurant.
For now we are carrying on as normal and have some extra supplies/food/ medicine.
My husband is in a higher risk situation as he works in a very busy office. However he drives and does not use public transport.
We as a family tend not to go to crowded places anyhow due to my son's additional needs.

 

[MakingTheGrade]

@MakingTheGrade What you described about not having enough equipment if too many people get sick at the same time....is something I’ve been thinking and saying to my husband for a long time. Since we are older we would be passed over...Do you suggest just isolating even though we’re not sick when the stuff hits the fan? I’m very curious what a physician would suggest we do.

Unfortunately I don’t know that I have a suggestion at this point since so much depends on how things develop and your specific circumstances and access to resources. I think right now things haven’t hit the fan, and being vigilant about hand hygiene etc is reasonable enough precautions while you go about life. Minimize things like unnecessary travel.

And I wouldn’t worry too much that older folk would be “passed over”. I am not the kind of doc that does that sort of triaging but I would be deeply surprised if it became an age based model. Triaging in the ER tends to be based on acuity and need, and I can’t imagine that would change in this situation.

 

[MamaBee]

Unfortunately I don’t know that I have a suggestion at this point since so much depends on how things develop and your specific circumstances and access to resources. I think right now things haven’t hit the fan, and being vigilant about hand hygiene etc is reasonable enough precautions while you go about life. Minimize things like unnecessary travel.

And I wouldn’t worry too much that older folk would be “passed over”. I am not the kind of doc that does that sort of triaging but I would be deeply surprised if it became an age based model. Triaging in the ER tends to be based on acuity and need, and I can’t imagine that would change in this situation.

That’s reassuring..xxxooo

 

[MakingTheGrade]

I agree that those in the media giving scarier sounding warnings are just trying to be cautious. Sometimes it’s hard to judge the risk of being too reassuring and people making too little effort at caution and then feeling you didn’t do enough if things spread and get really bad vs being too alarmist and causing hysteria. Which is probably why you’re getting weird language from cdc and healthcare authorities that sound something like “everything is totally ok please calm down. But also, this might get bad, please take precautions”

I can see why this causes a lot of confusion lol. But I get it. I think authorities would rather err on the side of causing a little too much paranoia than too little awareness.

My take away is that things right now are fine. Things are likely to continue to be fine if people do what they should in terms of hygiene and common sense. It is likely to spread, and that is still fine. There will likely be some stress related to health care resources that may take a little time to sort out. But I see no reason as of now to think this will be a catastrophic Katrina type scenario. And that being said, I’d still prefer my hospital make plans in case it does get that bad because i would rather be over prepared in this scenario than under.

I think because so much is still yet unknown about the virus, prognosis, etc, authorities are hesitant to offer too much reassurance that everything will be ok, even though i think it’s likely that it will be.
Minimize maximum regret is probably at work here, and I think appropriately so.

Edit: even with this level of precautionary language, some people still make bad decisions. Sigh.

N.H. coronavirus patient breaks isolation, potentially exposing others

Most states have laws against breaking an isolation order.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[House Cat]

I bought supplies two days before everyone else started going nuts and you know what happened to me? My psychiatrist put me on more meds. He said my reaction was disproportionate to the situation. He wasn’t mean about it, but he didn’t want me to spin out of control. Now I see the store shelves completely bare and I think that I was just thinking ahead!

 

[MakingTheGrade]

I bought supplies two days before everyone else started going nuts and you know what happened to me? My psychiatrist put me on more meds. He said my reaction was disproportionate to the situation. He wasn’t mean about it, but he didn’t want me to spin out of control. Now I see the store shelves completely bare and I think that I was just thinking ahead!

You should tell him that HIS reaction to your actions were disproportionate to the situation.

 

[House Cat]

You should tell him that HIS reaction to your actions were disproportionate to the situation.

LOL! That is perfect.

 

[arkieb1]

You should tell him that HIS reaction to your actions were disproportionate to the situation.

I was thinking exactly the same thing, judging on the reactions of a few people here, there are a few that have done the same thing ie be prepared in advance. I didn't and I almost ended up with no toilet paper..... I'd be like dude do you know how much fun it can be if you have a whole family with no toilet paper....

 

[MeowMeow]

I'm not panicking yet. But I am watching with concern because I have a 2 year old.

 

[MamaBee]

I have a lunch date with my oldest son today. I offered to buy him lunch if he would push another cart with TP at Costco. He said yes..He works cheap! lol

 

[MamaBee]

@arkieb1 My 94 year old mom lives with me. She is a TP hoarder. We will find one roll in the bathrooms and none in the closet. If I go in to my mom’s room she has dozens of rolls!

 

[House Cat]

 

[Austina]

Biophysics professor at Johns Hopkins University, Dr Karen Fleming, explained why simple hand-washing is so effective.


"Coronavirus is an 'enveloped' virus, which means that it has an outer lipid membrane layer," she tweeted.


"Basically, it's surrounded by a fat layer. Washing your hands with soap and water has the ability to 'dissolve' this greasy fatty layer and kill the virus."