Hurricane season: We got some stuff to watch (FL, Gulf, Eastern US)
- Thread starter Arcadian
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It is and not likely to drop. it will probably get stronger but they may not know until they go back and look at the historical data.
Waiting for the 1100 to see what they're finding.
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We're dealing with light to medium rain, and some mild winds with a few gusts every now and then. Not thrilled to hear about all
the tornados @Arcadian ... that's pretty scary. Sorry you are having to deal with physical issues due to the storm. Definitely makes
it a whole lot harder than it should be. DH is dragging in plants as we speak. I think he thought he had more time before the rain
started but...oh well, he's getting wet.
Stay safe everyone. I'm hoping it dies down a lot by the time it hits your area @RetroQT . I hope our Tampa Bay/Ft. Myers PSers
have left the area or are buckled down for the remainder.
@elizat Stay safe and keep us posted.
the tornados @Arcadian ... that's pretty scary. Sorry you are having to deal with physical issues due to the storm. Definitely makes
it a whole lot harder than it should be. DH is dragging in plants as we speak. I think he thought he had more time before the rain
started but...oh well, he's getting wet.
Stay safe everyone. I'm hoping it dies down a lot by the time it hits your area @RetroQT . I hope our Tampa Bay/Ft. Myers PSers
have left the area or are buckled down for the remainder.
@elizat Stay safe and keep us posted.
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No changes and that makes some sense. Storm is starting to crawl ashore and the TS force gusts are getting more consistent on the east side where I am. the wind field is huge and covers both sides right now. We are oddly getting some sunlight in between these very fast moving dark cloud bands.
Carolinas and Georgia need to be really watching this thing close.
@tyty333 I think up in Brevard they changed to hurricane warning.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 281458
TCDAT4
Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely
critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of
Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations
experiencing severe turbulence. That data supported an intensity of
about 135 kt a few hours ago. Since that time, high-resolution
Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000
ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold
of category 5 status. The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this
advisory.
Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next
few hours as a catastrophic hurricane. No changes were made to the
track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line
with the latest consensus aids. One important change is that Ian
is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula
(due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast
forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force
winds on the east coast of Florida. This necessitates the issuance
of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida. While
significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the
Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a
trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United
States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian's intensity with
more baroclinic forcing. Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued
from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of
coastal South Carolina. The new intensity forecast is raised from
the previous one, near the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the
southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach,
including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently
follow any evacuation orders in effect.
2. Catastrophic wind damage is beginning along the southwestern
coast of Florida today near the landfall location. Hurricane-force
winds are expected to extend well inland along near the core of Ian.
Preparations to protect life and property should be urgently rushed
to completion.
3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with
considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread,
prolonged major and record river flooding is expected across
central Florida.
4. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida
coast overnight, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.
Hurricane conditions are possible from northeastern Florida to
portions of South Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and a Hurricane
Watch has been issued for that area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 26.3N 82.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 27.3N 82.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1200Z 28.3N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 30/1200Z 30.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 01/0000Z 32.9N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1200Z 34.7N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
Carolinas and Georgia need to be really watching this thing close.
@tyty333 I think up in Brevard they changed to hurricane warning.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 281458
TCDAT4
Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely
critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of
Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations
experiencing severe turbulence. That data supported an intensity of
about 135 kt a few hours ago. Since that time, high-resolution
Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000
ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold
of category 5 status. The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this
advisory.
Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next
few hours as a catastrophic hurricane. No changes were made to the
track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line
with the latest consensus aids. One important change is that Ian
is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula
(due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast
forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force
winds on the east coast of Florida. This necessitates the issuance
of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida. While
significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the
Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a
trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United
States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian's intensity with
more baroclinic forcing. Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued
from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of
coastal South Carolina. The new intensity forecast is raised from
the previous one, near the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the
southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach,
including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently
follow any evacuation orders in effect.
2. Catastrophic wind damage is beginning along the southwestern
coast of Florida today near the landfall location. Hurricane-force
winds are expected to extend well inland along near the core of Ian.
Preparations to protect life and property should be urgently rushed
to completion.
3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with
considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread,
prolonged major and record river flooding is expected across
central Florida.
4. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida
coast overnight, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.
Hurricane conditions are possible from northeastern Florida to
portions of South Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and a Hurricane
Watch has been issued for that area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 26.3N 82.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 27.3N 82.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1200Z 28.3N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 30/1200Z 30.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 01/0000Z 32.9N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1200Z 34.7N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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winds are picking up here from the southwest.
000
WTNT64 KNHC 281557
TCUAT4
Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1200 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
...12 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE AT SANIBEL AND CAPTIVA ISLANDS...
The Government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings
for Cuba.
A Weatherflow station near Sanibel Island, Florida recently
reported sustained winds of 71 mph (114 km/h) and a wind gust of
98 mph (158 km/h), and a River, Estuary, and Coastal Network
station at Redfish Pass recently reported sustained winds of 67 mph
(108 km/h) and a wind gust of 84 mph (135 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 82.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Beven
000
WTNT64 KNHC 281557
TCUAT4
Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1200 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
...12 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...EYEWALL OF IAN MOVING ONSHORE AT SANIBEL AND CAPTIVA ISLANDS...
The Government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings
for Cuba.
A Weatherflow station near Sanibel Island, Florida recently
reported sustained winds of 71 mph (114 km/h) and a wind gust of
98 mph (158 km/h), and a River, Estuary, and Coastal Network
station at Redfish Pass recently reported sustained winds of 67 mph
(108 km/h) and a wind gust of 84 mph (135 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 82.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Beven
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. Probably due to it coming on shore further south than expected. We didn't
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Our flight out of Orlando scheduled for tomorrow was cancelled yesterday so we headed out in the rental car at 5:30 this morning. We’re currently stopped at a Bojangles for lunch north of Atlanta. Then back on the road toward O’Hare where my car is parked. It’s an adventure! And look what I just bought at the gas station! Looking on the bright side, if this hadn’t happened I never would have found a beverage this… uh… amazing!
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Napped and a bit refreshed but unfortunately still feeling all that pressure. its less now because the pressure is rising but still feels bad. would not wish this on anyone.
I'm looking at some of the numbers online and the damage and its absolutely heart breaking. There are people that left south Florida to central to avoid hurricanes but here we are! Not a place to avoid such a thing.
I'm now seeing birds out though we do have winds and some wind gusts, its not too terrible right now. Its supposed to get a little bad overnight as the thing pulls to the middle of the state though. Still, I expect we'll get some additional rains but nothing like what the west side is getting and definitely nothing like what the northeast quadrant of the storm will get.
Anyone that needs to know disaster info can go here: https://www.floridadisaster.org/info/
Also, lot of power outages as expected where the eye came onshore.
poweroutage.us
I'm looking at some of the numbers online and the damage and its absolutely heart breaking. There are people that left south Florida to central to avoid hurricanes but here we are! Not a place to avoid such a thing.
I'm now seeing birds out though we do have winds and some wind gusts, its not too terrible right now. Its supposed to get a little bad overnight as the thing pulls to the middle of the state though. Still, I expect we'll get some additional rains but nothing like what the west side is getting and definitely nothing like what the northeast quadrant of the storm will get.
Anyone that needs to know disaster info can go here: https://www.floridadisaster.org/info/
Also, lot of power outages as expected where the eye came onshore.
Florida Power Outages Map, Jan 2025
poweroutage.us
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For southeast FL its mostly over though we do have winds to contend with and some rain. Nothing like the west side of the state and hopefully a weaker storm will be helpful for the northern part of the state.
Its moving at a very slow rate of speed though which from what I could see, the storms are heavily weighted in the north northeast quadrant. its going to spin water back into Tampa Bay at some point. I saw that the wind pushed the water out...which is spooky.
Anyway the windfield as you can see is much bigger than the peninsula so hurricane warnings are on both sides for that reason (plus still over 100mph winds!)
Pressure is coming up as its over land now (my head is still hurting a lot but its manageable compared to what it was like earlier)
Northern FL/Central FL folks, be careful tonight. I will be thinking of you all up there.
Its moving at a very slow rate of speed though which from what I could see, the storms are heavily weighted in the north northeast quadrant. its going to spin water back into Tampa Bay at some point. I saw that the wind pushed the water out...which is spooky.
Anyway the windfield as you can see is much bigger than the peninsula so hurricane warnings are on both sides for that reason (plus still over 100mph winds!)
Pressure is coming up as its over land now (my head is still hurting a lot but its manageable compared to what it was like earlier)
Northern FL/Central FL folks, be careful tonight. I will be thinking of you all up there.
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@Arcadian , Thank you for keeping everyone here updated. I hope all the Florida PSers are safe and dry. Please stay safe everyone.
RetroQT
Brilliant_Rock
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The current track from NHC (and check out that windfield! We had crazy wind all last night, some power outages for my area. In the discussion they talk about Ian moving off the coast, but that means the eye, the windfield will still cover much of the peninsula. Speaking of, this morning when I took the pups out for a walk, the clouds were giant and moving in a circular pattern. Pretty but kinda scary because you knew what they were.
Georgia and SC should be preparing for tropical storm at this point.
Georgia and SC should be preparing for tropical storm at this point.
RetroQT
Brilliant_Rock
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Ian is expected to restrengthen to a hurricane. Georgia, North and South Carolina needs to pay close attention. Again whats in orange is the windfield of this storm and its not really going to get that much smaller.
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I try. Unlike earthquakes (and even some tornadoes or dust storms), there's usually time to prepare for these types of events, and certain storms have a particular look that makes them worth watching long term. I'm still learning a whole lot though and certainly unlike a newscaster, no one is going to poo poo me if I make a mistake. Still better safe than sorry is my motto.
But I cut my teeth on the midwest! cool breeze and the air got still, you may be dealing with a tornado before you know it. green skies? hail. And I learned to read the clouds (thanks to my grandparents!) Even winter storms had a particular smell to them (way different from a typical thunderstorm)
I'm just weird I guess...
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Florida power outages. Theres a lot https://poweroutage.us/area/state/florida
Georgia is now starting to have power outages https://poweroutage.us/
Georgia is now starting to have power outages https://poweroutage.us/
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Ian is a hurricane again and its not entirely impossible this could end up being a cat 2.
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